SONIA GANDHI'S RESIGNATION FROM PARLIAMENT SETS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002021

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: SONIA GANDHI'S RESIGNATION FROM PARLIAMENT SETS
OFF CHAIN REACTION WITH DEEP POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES


Classified By: DCM Bob Blake Jr., Reason 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Complicated political maneuvering culminated
in Sonia Gandhi's dramatic resignation from Parliament and as
head of the National Advisory Council (NAC) on March 23.
Congress set off the furor when it tried to use an obscure
Constitutional act which forbids MPs from holding "offices of
profit" to disqualify MPs from its arch enemy the Samajwadi
Party (SP). The SP and BJP then argued disingenuously that
Gandhi and other Congress and Communist MPs were equally
guilty and should also be disqualified. When Congress tried
to head-off the move by introducing an ordinance to change
the legislation, it set off a firestorm of opposition in
Parliament. Gandhi's resignation will likely be followed by
Congress dropping the ill-advised ordinance idea, and
heads-off further opposition moves. Our sources tell us that
Gandhi's resignation could be quickly followed by the
resignations of up to 40 additional MPs and a series of
by-elections to fill the vacant seats. The move was
purportedly Gandhi's idea and that it will likely increase
her political stock, reinvigorate Congress, and improve its
chances in upcoming elections, thereby changing a potential
political defeat into a political asset. Sonia has already
announced that she will stand as soon as possible in a new
election to reclaim her seat, expressing confidence that the
voters will support her. End Summary.

A Dramatic Resignation
--------------


2. (U) On March 23 in a dramatic announcement, Congress
Party President Sonia Gandhi resigned from Parliament and
stepped down as head of the National Advisory Council (NAC).
In her statement Ms. Gandhi said she was deeply hurt by
opposition attacks on her good name and that "I have never
considered personal gains and have always worked for a
secular society free of all prejudice."


3. (U) Sonia Gandhi was both a member of the Lok Sabha and
Chairperson of the NAC, a new body established by the UPA
after it came to power in 2004. The ostensible purpose of
the NAC is to oversee the implementation of the Common
Minimum Program (CMP) that forms the basic guiding principle
for the UPA alliance and its head was granted Cabinet
Minister status. Many political observers have criticized
the NAC as a powerless body set up to further aggrandize Ms.
Gandhi.

More Congress Plotting
--------------


4. (U) The (Prevention of Disqualification) Act of 1959 of
the Indian Constitution prohibits an MP from holding an
"office of profit" unless it is specifically exempted. The
controversy arose after the UPA used the Act to disqualify
Jaya Bachchan, a Bollywood actress, wife of Bollywood legend
Amitabh Bachan, and a Samajwadi Party(SP) MP. The UPA argued
that Ms. Bachan could not serve in Parliament, as she held an
office of profit as Chairperson of the Uttar Pradesh Film
Development Council. Most political pundits saw Ms. Bachan's
disqualification as only the opening round of a concerted
campaign orchestrated by Congress to get the SP leadership
out of Parliament, with SP fixer Amar Singh as the principal
target.

Leads to Mayhem in Parliament
--------------

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5. (U) Outraged by Ms. Bachan's ouster, the SP took the
offensive, stating that numerous Congress MPs, including Ms.
Gandhi, also held positions of profit and should be expelled.
The BJP, sensing that Congress was vulnerable, joined hands
with the SP. The opposition parties filed petitions with the
President seeking Sonia Gandhi's disqualification, as well as
the disqualifications of a number of other senior Congress
and Left MPs (including Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath
Chatterjee),who they alleged also held offices of profit.

And an ill-advised Ordinance
--------------


6. (U) Congress party leaders, fearing that Sonia could be
disqualified and hoping to head-off the opposition challenge,
announced in Parliament on March 22 their intention to change
by ordinance the definition of an "office of profit." The
Congress move backfired, however, as opposition MPs loudly
argued that the proposed ordinance was nothing more than a
UPA attempt to shield Sonia Gandhi from the Act, leading to
spirited verbal clashes on the floor of Parliament between
UPA and opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) MPs.
When the speaker could no longer control the mayhem, he
abruptly adjourned the session. Angry NDA leaders then urged
President Abdul Kalam not to sign any ordinance that the
government might bring forward on this issue. While former
Prime Minister and BJP senior statesman AT Vajpayee asserted
that "I don't think this Ordinance will come, and if it
comes, it will mark the end of this government."

Views of the Political Pundit
--------------


7. (C) In a March 23 meeting with Poloff, Political pundit
and "Hindustan Times" columnist Pankaj Vohra praised Ms.
Gandhi for her astute political leadership, asserting that
she had been misled by her political advisors who
thoughtlessly proposed the Ordinance. According to Vohra, it
was Gandhi's idea to resign, which has effectively turned the
tables on the opposition. Vohra maintained that Gandhi's
move will have far-reaching political consequences that will
benefit Congress and hurt the BJP.


8. (C) Pointing out that up to 40 MPs, including the
Speaker, Congress luminary Karan Singh, and others, hold
"offices of profit," Vohra predicted that most will resign
from Parliament by the night of March 24, setting of a wave
of by-elections to fill the vacant seats. Claiming that
Sonia Gandhi's political capital with the masses will
increase manyfold, Vohra was adamant that she will be pushed
to the political forefront, giving Congress the edge it needs
to defeat its opponents in upcoming state elections. He
further noted that Sonia Gandhi's seat is in Rae Barelli in
Uttar Pradesh and that her election campaign there to reclaim
her seat will be the focal point of a concerted effort to
revive the Congress party in that crucial state.

Comment - Defeat Into Victory
--------------


9. (C) In its anxiousness to protect Mrs. Gandhi, the
Congress party leadership took a route that led to more
confrontation with the opposition BJP and could have provided
it with an issue to target Congress. By resigning, she has
moved to become a political martyr and Congress will now
portray her as a dedicated patriot not interested in

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political office but only in serving the people. It will be
difficult for the BJP and SP to counter the Gandhi mystique
and if Congress plays its cards right, it can turn a
misguided parliamentary gambit into electoral gain.
MULFORD