INDIA AND AUSTRALIA SEEING EACH OTHER IN A NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 001699 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015 TAGS: PREL MOPS ENRG ECON ETRD MNUC TRGY TSPL ASEAN XO, AS, IN SUBJECT: INDIA AND AUSTRALIA SEEING EACH OTHER IN A NEW LIGHT FOLLOWING HOWARD'S VISIT REF: A. NEW DELHI 1656 ¶B. CANBERRA 00361 NEW DELHI 00001699 001.2 OF 005 Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Australian Prime Minister John Howard on March 9 concluded a successful four-day visit to Delhi, Chennai and Mumbai and signed six agreements on a range of issues, including a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Defense Cooperation that will bury lingering Indo-Australian suspicion and could facilitate U.S.-India-Australia cooperation in the Indian Ocean Basin. The Australian High Commission believes the visit heralded a clear desire to partner with Australia -- a GOI position the Australian High Commission tells us only began to materialize since July when PM Singh visited Washington. On exports of uranium, PM Howard invited some confusion by initially indicating openness to a change in policy, before having to pull-back and spend the better part of the visit reaffirming the current GOA prohibition of uranium export to non-NPT countries. The GOA will carefully review the U.S.-India agreement, and the High Commission believes that a positive Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) position may open the door to overcoming Australian domestic opposition to uranium sales. The agenda of the visit mirrored in many ways that of President Bush, underscoring the common interests and opportunities of the U.S. and Australia collaborating with India. End Summary. INDO-AUSTRALIA RELATIONS ALSO TRANSFORMING -------------- ¶2. (C) Despite the long shadow cast by President Bush's recent and successful visit, Australian PM John Howard's visit to India signaled an important shift in Indo-Australia relations that were once perceived as icy and marked by rivalry for dominance in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, the visit maintains the momentum of India's emergence as a world power, increasingly engaging the countries with which it has identified strategic interests. Given Australia's huge natural resource base, geographic position and sizable non-resident Indian (NRI) community, the transformation in Indo-Australia relations comes as a welcome development. ¶3. (C) While overshadowed in the press by the issue of uranium exports to India, the breadth of Indo-Australia cooperation evidenced during the visit is wide and, in some regards, substantive. Specifically, the two countries entered into a MOU on Defense Cooperation, a MOU on biotechnology, a MOU on customs, a Trade and Economic Framework, an Agreement on Air Services, and a Letter of Intent on an India-Australia Strategic Research Fund. Moreover, PM Howard announced the opening of a new Australian consulate, in Chennai. ¶4. (SBU) Indo-Australia ties are emerging from a relationship that was described by Australian High Commissioner John McCarthy, in his post-visit briefing to New Delhi based diplomats, "as having its ups and downs." Retired Assistant Naval Chief of Staff and leading Indian security analyst Raja Menon explained in a discussion with PolOff how sensitive the nuclear issue remains in Australia, as is the subject of chemical and biological weapons, since India has never joined the Australia Group. Indeed, the relationship has often been seen through the prism of these two issues. DEFENSE COOPERATION TAKING OFF -------------- NEW DELHI 00001699 002.2 OF 005 ¶5. (C) D/PolCouns talked privately to David Holley, Australian Deputy High Commissioner, and was struck by the enthusiasm that Holley exhibited about the level of military cooperation achieved during the visit. The Defense MOU was considered by the Indian Cabinet and is, therefore, more substantive than a Framework Agreement within the Indian system. Regardless of the diplomatic format, the MOU (reftel A) is still drafted in very general terms, but does note the common interest of the two governments "in the stability of the Asia-Pacific region, non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, combating international terrorism, and security of sea lanes of communication." Its stated purpose "is to promote cooperation and understanding between the Participants in defense strategic dialogue, defense industry, production, education, training and acquisition of defense equipment, research and development management," and creates an India-Australia Joint Working Group on Defense. On maritime cooperation, which High Commissioner McCarthy described in his briefing as the focus of defense cooperation, the MOU specifically provides for "extending cooperation in this sphere in the context of common interest in the security of the Indian Ocean and other areas of mutual interest and benefit...(and may) include activities such as joint naval exercises, ship visits and professional exchanges." On defense material cooperation, the MOU speaks only of "mutually beneficial exchanges between the defense organizations in various areas of mutual interest including, inter alia, acquisition of defense equipment, services, training, technology, research and development and management. There is no specific mention of provisions of equipment sales, Holley notes, due to "Pakistan sensitivities" and the relatively small defense sector in Australia. ¶6. (C) Interestingly, Holley informed us that the Indians characterized similar talks on defense in April 2005 "a waste of time." Even on maritime cooperation, India had previously been quite negative on what it had formerly viewed as Australian efforts to "intrude in their ocean." Since July of 2005 (PM Singh's visit to Washington),however, the Indians have proven far more receptive to cooperation in this field. In fact, Holley believes the GOA is "overwhelmed" by Indian ideas and suggestions and can not possibly fulfill all the Indian expectations. ¶7. (C) Menon was also positive on the Indo-Australia MOU, though far less exuberant than Holley. For one, he believes it shares some of the weakness inherent in U.S.-India defense cooperation, which is a lack of "functional operability." Menon does not believe defense cooperation between Australia and India or between the U.S. and India can be simply a series of increasingly complex joint exercises. He looks forward to inter-operability "being put to use," "and to reflect foreign policy." Specific to this MOU, he notes that Indian responsibility for the Joint Working Group will remain within the Ministry of Defense, which he describes as "weak on policy." URANIUM EXPORTS: "A POLICY CAN'T CHANGE AT A PRESS CONFERENCE" -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Although PM Howard and Australian Foreign Minister Downer quickly came out in favor of the U.S.-India nuclear deal, Howard invited some confusion on the issue by initially stating, on the subject of uranium exports, "I think we would like to talk about it," and signaling continued strong support of the U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement early in his visit. He stated in New Delhi on March 6: "There are a NEW DELHI 00001699 003.2 OF 005 lot of good things about that agreement, including the fact that for the first time India's civilian nuclear facilities will come under international inspections." While it was inevitable that the subject of uranium exports would figure prominently -- PM Singh himself raised the issue in direct terms with Howard -- FM Downer, publicly and undiplomatically ruled out selling uranium to India only days before the visit, even if the NSG made an exception for India. The tempest in Australia that resulted from Howard's positive signals forced the PM into something of a public about-face, as he then had to reaffirm repeatedly throughout his trip the GOA's current policy only to export to NPT countries with whom it has a bilateral safeguards agreement. In this, he was not assisted by PM Singh who made no effort to downplay the issue. High Commissioner McCarthy reported that the Indian PM made a direct request for uranium exports to Howard, and, answering questions at the joint press conference, Singh said India was deserving of an international exception, given that it abides by the NPT's rules and was committed to a moratorium on nuclear testing. ¶9. (C) Australia is estimated to possess nearly 40 percent of the world's known uranium exports, and by the measure of some local trade analysts, opening these exports to New Delhi could nearly double the value of Australia's current exports to India. ¶10. (C) Despite the pressure from Australia's political opposition and strong anti-nuclear lobby, PM Howard did manage to remain flexible on future uranium exports. Australian High Commission Political Counselor and Press Chief John Fisher (PROTECT),while conceding that the shifting public sentiments indicated that the GOA had not done its homework prior to the visit, described to D/PolCouns the challenge for the PM as one of "not saying to the Indians we're closed to supply, but not hinting at an immediate policy change that would cause domestic political turbulence." To that end, Deputy High Commissioner Holley believes the PM was successful, "remaining ambiguous while sticking to the official line." The Australian High Commissioner, in his briefing to diplomats, described the PM's position as "constructive ambiguity," and in response to questions on the potential for future uranium sales to India, he said: "It might go against, it might go in favor." Deputy High Commissioner Holley was a bit more revealing in private, and believes "there could be a way around the problem -- by using the NSG for political cover." "But it will take some time." Moving forward, the GOA set up an experts group to gather details on the U.S.-India agreement as a possible first step toward uranium sales. The GOA, say their diplomats in New Delhi, will also watch NSG signal very carefully. TRADE AND INVESTMENT, LIBERALIZED AIR SERVICES -------------- - ¶11. (U) The Indians also got down to business on expanding further the burgeoning trade relationship between the two countries. India is already ranked as Australia's sixth largest export destination, and trade between the two nations currently stands at $7 billion, and is growing 20 percent per year. However, the levels of direct investment have remained comparatively low. The Trade and Economic Framework aims at enhancing cooperation in the fields of energy, mining, infrastructure, food and beverages, textiles, clothing, footwear, and agriculture. The PM was accompanied by a top-flight delegation of Australian business leaders, including the directors of energy majors Geodynamics and Hydro Tasmania, the Group President of mining giant BHP NEW DELHI 00001699 004.2 OF 005 Billiton and representatives of Rio Tinto and One Steel, and the CEO of Qantas Airways. High Commissioner McCarthy noted that it is uncommon for a business delegation formally to join the PM on his travels, underscoring the importance of the economic relationship. The comprehensive Agreement Relating to Air Services expands the access of each country's carriers to the other's aviation market. Moreover, Qantas is currently engaged in talks with India's largest domestic airline, Jet Airways, for a code-share agreement and marketing tie-up, and Qantas was meanwhile signaling in India its intent to expand its coverage beyond Mumbai. ¶12. (U) The Framework takes on additional importance in light of India's intentions to pursue separate Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with ASEAN countries and with Thailand within the next few months. While Australia and India did not announce plans for an FTA, some Indian business analysts view the Framework as a precursor to an FTA and an eventual free trade area covering nearly all of Asia, and extending to Australia and New Zealand. High Commissioner McCarthy did not accept that rosy view at his briefing, noting the particular difficulties India and Australia would have negotiating on agriculture, but he did not rule it out for the future. ¶13. (C) While no formal announcement was made, another clear signal of the intent by Australia to expand its relations with India -- and one that may have a significant impact on foreign trade and investment -- is the likely extension to Indians of access to Australia's on-line "e-visa" scheme when it comes into effect later this year. The PM did, however, signal a strong desire to foster increased Indo-Australia exchanges and partnerships by announcing -- in another echo of President Bush's trip -- the intent to open a new consulate, in Chennai. A GROWING DESTINATION FOR INDIAN STUDENTS -------------- ¶14. (U) Already the third-largest destination for Indian students, the extension of on-line visa application is also expected to give a further boost to the number of Indian students studying in Australia. Year-on-year, this number is growing 35 percent, and some analysts expect it to jump 50 percent in 2006. Under the new procedures, any student holding a valid Indian passport can submit an application on-line, with the entire procedure usually taking only 7 days. Australia remains competitive in India due to its universities' relative affordability, English-medium instruction and emigration opportunities for skilled Indians. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY -------------- ¶15. (U) High Commissioner McCarthy was enthusiastic about the work done on science and technology, where the GOA and GOI each committed AUD $20 million (USD $17.4 million) to an Australia-India Strategic Research Fund for collaborative research between the two countries. In addition, the GOA is setting aside AUD $5 million for research fellowships and professional development for Indian scientists and researchers. The two nations also signed an MOU on biotechnology, including the creation of a Joint Biotechnology Committee (managed on the GOI side by the Ministry of Science and Technology) to identify priority areas and develop successful collaborative projects. That MOU contains no specific funding mechanism. NEW DELHI 00001699 005.2 OF 005 U.S.-INDIA RELATIONS FUELING THE UPSWING IN INDO-AUSTRALIA TIES -------------- -------------- ¶16. (C) MEA's Under Secretary, South Division, Kesar Alam, was positive in his discussion with PolOff of Howard's visit. On uranium exports, he believes the Australian line "has softened." Speaking on the MOU on Defense Cooperation, he shares the assessment of the Australian High Commission that cooperation is substantive, but emphasized the strong Australian desire for cooperation, whereas our High Commission contacts emphasized the Indian push. In any case, he likens the expansion of Indo-Australia relations to the growth in U.S.-India ties, and shared his personal view that relations between the two countries really began to take off in July 2005, as U.S.-India relations went into high gear. COMMENT: OPPORTUNITY ABOUNDS -------------- ¶17. (SBU) Comment: PM Howard's successful trip to Australia, coming only days after the visits of French President Chirac and President Bush is another potent symbol of India's emergence on the world stage. Given the U.S. and Australia's shared values and priorities, this "transformation" in Indo-Australia relations is welcome. We are also struck by the openness of the GOA to the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal despite the strong anti-nuclear sentiment at home. The budding Indo-Australia partnership owes a lot to the U.S. effort to push India onto the world stage, and we should look for opportunities to partner with Australia as we move India along on key issues, such as proliferation, maritime security and missile defense. End Comment. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) BLAKE