CHAD: POLITICAL OPPOSTION PROPOSES UNITY GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000826 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT. FOR AF, AFC, DRL, PRM, S/CRS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KCRS CD SUBJECT: CHAD: POLITICAL OPPOSTION PROPOSES UNITY GOVERNMENT REF: NDJAMENA 778 Classified By: POL/ECON OFFICER MICHAEL P. ZORICK, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY: -------------- ¶1. (C) Chad's political opposition's ideas for a non-exclusive political dialogue would emasculate President Deby inside a multi-headed executive structure as part of a "Government of Broad Union", created to implement a "National Pact for Peace, Unity and Democracy" aimed at a root-and-branch reform of the Chadian socio-political fabric -- ideas unlikely to gain much traction with the President. The sweeping scope of the proposals, including a gutting of the state structure as currently under Deby's control, seems entirely unrealistic as a starting point for dialogue. END SUMMARY NATIONAL PACT FOR PEACE, UNITY AND DEMOCRACY -------------- ¶2. (C) Pol/Econ Officer met June 8 with Salibou Garba, head of the "AND" Party and member of the opposition umbrella group Coordination of the Political Parties for the Defense of the Constitution (CPDC). Garba sought to follow up on the CPDC leadership's May 30 meeting with AF DAS Yamamoto (reftel),and provided a draft set of ideas for a "road map" toward peaceful political transition in Chad titled "Note for the Attention of Mr. Donald Yamamoto -- Political Crisis in Chad -- Framework for a Resolution". Garba stressed that he was sharing the draft with us to get our input before making the ideas public -- or even showing them to some CPDC members, whom he did not trust to keep the proposals confidential until they were ready for prime time. SIPDIS ¶3. (C) The CPDC draft proposals open with a summary of the current political crisis, which characterizes state institutions, the ruling party and its allied organizations as having no purpose other than serving the personal interests of President Idriss Deby Itno. The CPDC proposal calls for the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) and the broader international community to address this "crisis of legitimacy" through the facilitation of a "non-exclusive dialogue". The objective of the dialogue is to be the conclusion of a "National Pact for Peace, Unity, and Democracy" that is to create a "Road Map" for socio-political reform, to be implemented by a "Government of Broad Union". ¶4. (C) The CPDC road map calls for an "absorption" of armed political groups into the National Pact, with an open door to those who are not immediately ready to join to come in later. Security forces are to be reformed to create a professional army without ethnic, clan, or regional domination, and a police and gendarmerie purged of executive influence. Territorial and public administrations are to be professionalized, decentralized, and purged of fictitious and un-official employees. The justice system is to be restructured, with a Special Commission to replace the current High Council of Magistrates in order to identify and sanction the Council's derogations of justice. Communal and legislative elections are to be organized, based on a general census, followed by an electoral census and the creation of computerized electoral rolls. Government of Broad Union -------------- ¶5. (C) The CPDC draft proposes that a unity government implement the road map. At its head would be a multi-headed executive organ that would surround the President -- presumably, but not explicitly, President Deby -- with two Vice Presidents and two Permanent Secretaries, which the political parties, armed opposition, human rights organizations and union representatives would somehow designate. This "Executive" would provide moral authority over the "Government for Peace, Unity and Democracy, drawn NDJAMENA 00000826 002 OF 002 from the range of political forces in the country, and headed by a Prime Minister from the political opposition with broad powers to implement the road map of reforms. ¶6. (C) This institutional structure would require extensive amendments to articles of the current constitution defining the roles and powers of the President of the Republic and Prime Minister. Indeed, the CPDC proposal recognized that, given the perceived corruption of all the organs of state, it will be necessary to review the powers of the National Assembly, Constitutional Council, Supreme Court, and Communication High Council -- proposing that all these be either suspended or dissolved. FOREIGNERS TO IMPOSE IT ALL -------------- ¶7. (C) The CPDC, predicting obstruction and difficulties emanating from the President, calls for a resolution of the AU, or if necessary from the UN Security Council, creating an international oversight committee to supervise the implementation of the commitments that the parties to the National Pact have made. The committee would draw its membership from the AU and the United Nations, as well as the USG and the EU. It would have responsibility for evaluating the road map's implementation, proposing supplemental measures, resolving diffculties, identifying obstructionists, and proposig sanctions. ¶8. (C) The process to accomplish tis ambitious agenda would begin with internationl apprval of the scheme, with the USG to help sell it to the wider international community. Once there is full support from the broad international community, it will bear the responsibility for bringing President Deby on board, through persuasion or coercion, as needed. The CPDC would seek buy-in from civil society, unions and human rights organizations -- with the help of the international community. ¶9. (C) Almost as an after thought, the CPDC draft suggests that all of the above might provide appropriate grist for a Forum for National Dialogue. The international community would, of course, be asked to set this up, including format, time, place, and funding. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Short of demanding the immediate resignation of President Deby, it is difficult to imagine a set of proposals less likely to be embraced by the existing power structure. The CPDC essentially calls for the dismantling of the State as it currently exists, under international supervision -- hardly an idea that will gain traction in Chad's environment of political stalemate and armed rebellion. In short, there's not much to work with here. END COMMENT. ¶11. (U) Tripoli Minimize Considered. WALL