CHAD: ELECTION RESULTS

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000684 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CD KDEM PGOV PHUM PREF SUBJECT: CHAD: ELECTION RESULTS REF: A. N'DJAMENA 662 ¶B. N'DJAMENA 661 ¶C. N'DJAMENA 612 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Representing what most observers considered a formality, the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) announced last night that President Idriss Deby Itno was the projected winner of the May 3 presidential election. According to the preliminary results, which must be certified by the Constitutional Council by May 28, Deby won 77.53 percent of the national vote, which dwarfs his victory in the 2001 presidential election, in which he won 63 percent of the vote. In every region he largely demolished his four modest "competitors," who were either members of the governing coalition or unknown to the public. Each of the opposing candidates garnered between 3.67 and 8.81 percent of the national vote. The CENI's preliminary results projected that voter turnout was 61.49 percent, less than the 70-percent range predicted recently by the CENI but far greater than what most credible sources estimated, which was between 10 and 20 percent, at least in N'Djamena. President Deby celebrated his election victory Sunday night after the preliminary results were read by paying tribute to the Chadian people and underlining the results as proof that democracy works in Chad and that Chad is advancing. ¶2. (SBU) President Idriss Deby Itno, in power since 1990, won the May 3 presidential election with 77.53 percent of the vote, according to preliminary election results announced last night by the CENI. According to the CENI's preliminary results, which must be certified by the Constitutional Council by May 28, Deby won 77.53 percent of the national vote, which dwarfs his victory in the 2001 presidential election, in which he won 63 percent of the vote. In every region he largely demolished his four modest "competitors," who were either members of the governing coalition or unknown to the public. Each of the opposing candidates garnered between 3.67 and 8.81 percent of the national vote. -------------- Voter Turnout -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The CENI's preliminary results projected that voter turnout among the country's 5,697,922 registered voters was 61.49 percent, less than the 70-percent range predicted in recent weeks by the CENI but far greater than what most credible sources estimated, which was between 10 and 20 percent, at least in N'Djamena. (NOTE: Of the 3,503,538 voters who participated, more than 152 thousand of the ballots cast were declared null and void or invalid. END NOTE.) The voter turnout of N'Djamena was projected to be 38.72 percent. -------------- The Also-Rans -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Former Prime minister Kassire Coumakoye (National Rally for Democracy, Viva-RNDP) came in second with 8.81 percent of the national vote. He was followed by Minister of Agriculture Albert Pahimi Padacke (National Rally of Chadian Democrats, RNDT-Le Reveil) with 5.35 percent, Delegated Minister for Decentralization Mahamat Abdoulaye (Movement for Peace and Development in Chad, MPDT) with 4.64 percent, and a largely unknown candidate, Brahim Koulamallah (Renewed African Socialist Movement, MSA/R),with 3.67 percent. -------------- -- Presidential Celebration: Gunning for Democracy -------------- -- ¶5. (SBU) President Deby celebrated his election victory Sunday night after the preliminary results were read by paying tribute to the Chadian people during a brief late-night declaration to members of the press gathered at the Presidency. Deby said the victory "disproved those who said Chad was going to explode" and that the preliminary results were proof that "democracy works in Chad and that Chad is advancing." However, some residents of N'Djamena might have wondered if the country was exploding when soldiers and residents saluted Deby's victory by firing AK-47s into the N'Djamena sky late on Sunday night. -------------- A Date to Be Written in Gold -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Before the preliminary results were read for each of the country's 50 departments, CENI President Ahamat Mahamat Bashir proclaimed that "the date of May 14, 2006 must be written in letters of gold" because the Chadian people have given a lesson in maturity." For some in the audience, however, the date might be less memorable: some of the 150 journalists and election observers who attended the five-hour-long reading of the results (in French and in Arabic) fell asleep, as did two members of the CENI panel members seated in front of the microphones and cameras. In addition, impatient journalists eager for the final country-wide results, which were saved for the very end, showed their disinterest throughout the evening by talking on cell phones, despite CENI's appeals for silence. Other indications that the date might not be written in gold included the complete absence of the political opposition and some discrepancies between voting totals read aloud by CENI members and the totals displayed on a screen over their heads (NOTE: Despite moans and shouts from confused journalists, these discrepancies were never addressed. END NOTE.) -------------- Voting Patterns of Note -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Deby garnered the most votes in every region, according to the CENI. There were three regions where Deby did not win 50 percent of the vote: Logone Occidental (47.04 percent),Mayo-Kebi Ouest (46.3 percent),and Tandjile (47.31 percent). There were six regions in which one of Deby's opponents won more than 15 percent: Guera (Kassire won 26.56 percent),Logone Occidental (Kassire won 18.24 percent and Pahimi won 15.38 percent), Mandoul (Kassire won 16.41 percent),Mayo-Kebi Ouest (Pahimi won 26.10 percent),Moyen Chari (Kassire won 21.55 percent),and Tandjile (Kassire won 33.94 percent). -------------- Voting Breakdown Region by Region -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In descending order, according to the number of registered voters (given in parentheses),the following is a breakdown of voter participation in each of the country's 17 regions, as well as in N'Djamena and abroad. The percentage of votes won by Deby is also given. Commune (city) N'Djamena (630,095): 38.72 percent (Deby won 71.52 percent) Ouddai (513,581): 81.15 percent (Deby won 83.79 percent) Voting by Expatriates Outside Chad (421,947): (inaudible) (Deby won 82.26 percent) Mayo-Kebi Est (358,425): 59.02 percent (Deby won 69.14 percent) Hadjer-Lamis (335,383): 82 percent (Deby won 93 percent) Batha (320,395): more than 60 percent (inaudible) (Deby won 94.65 percent) Kanem: (307, 137): 80.68 percent (Deby won 91.54 percent) Chari-Banguirmi (285,975): 76 percent (Deby won 85.3 percent) Logone Occidental (282,490): 87.5 percent (Deby won 47.04 percent) Logone Oriental (282,391): 54.44 percent (Deby won 67.05 percent) Moyen Chari (267,751): 40.27 percent (Deby won 52.63 percent) Tandjile (267,194): (inaudible) (Deby won 47.31 percent) Mandoul (260,586): 53.59 percent (Deby won 61.3 percent) Mayo-Kebi Ouest (217,761): 46.30 percent (Deby won 48.43 percent) Lac (208,847): 83.50 percent (Deby won 90.06 percent) Guera (197,333): 63 percent (Deby won 60.63 percent) Wadi-Fira (197,284): 89.67 percent (Deby won 86.27 percent) Salamat (185,390): 73.58 percent (Deby won 86.36 percent) Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti (101,083): 85 percent (Deby won 90.08 percent) -------------- Voting Breakdown for the City of N'Djamena -------------- ¶9. (SBU) According to the CENI, in N'Djamena 38.72 percent of the city's 630,095 registered voters participated. Below is a district-by-district breakdown of voter participation in N'Djamena. Embassy election observer teams in N'Djamena estimated a voter turnout of between 10 and 20 percent, with the lowest turnouts seemingly in districts that have traditionally favored the opposition. (NOTE: Districts known to favor heavily the political opposition are the 5th, 6th, and 7th districts and are denoted with an astrix below. END NOTE). 1st: 62.9 percent of 45,397 registered voters (Deby won 47.19 percent) 2nd: 51.53 percent of 58,966 registered voters (Deby won 75 percent) 3rd: 40.18 percent of 35,867 registered voters (Deby won 54.13 percent) 4th: 32.26 percent of 105,445 registered voters (Deby won 73 percent) 5th*: 30.50 percent of 61,009 registered voters (Deby won 75 percent) 6th*: 32 percent of 42,993 registered voters (Deby won 68 percent) 7th*: 25 percent of 100,888 registered voters (Deby won 73.23 percent) 8th: 50 percent of 95,884 registered voters (Deby won 85.11 percent) 9th: 39.9 percent of 45,388 registered voters (Deby won 59.43 percent) 10th: 35.03 percent of 38,258 registered voters (Deby won 83 percent) ¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: The projected overall voter turnout announced by the CENI yesterday (61.49 percent) is more modest than the voter turnout it announced after the June 2005 referendum (more than 70 percent),which the Constitutional Council scaled back to 57.8 percent last year when it certified the results. However, the voter turnout projected by the CENI last night is still a greatly bloated figure and underlines the dire need to redraft the electoral code and reconfigure the CENI, whose independence has always been in serious doubt. In an election that was boycotted by the political opposition and under constant threat from rebel attacks from the East, Deby's victory seems to solve none of his current problems. The CENI numbers give Deby another five-year term but also a very weak mandate. The preliminary results also accentuate the need for an honest dialogue between the GOC and its international partners, one that strongly encourages the GOC to construct credible voter lists based on a new census and to engage the opposition and rebels in a national dialogue. END COMMENT WALL