CHAD: ELECTION PREPARATIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000612 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICAWATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV CD SUBJECT: CHAD: ELECTION PREPARATIONS NDJAMENA 00000612 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Chadian presidential election campaign ends midnight on May 1, with elections scheduled for May 3. From the field of 5 original candidates it appears that only four remain. Opposition groups continue to call for a "ville morte" (dead city) on May 3 and for citizens to boycott the elections. The President's MPS Party has invested considerable effort (and money) into promotional activities for the campaign, and N'djamena has been awash with rallies, posters, and other campaign paraphernalia. It is widely believed that monetary inducements have contributed to swell the ranks of the MPS faithfuls during these rallies. Chadian Ministers have gone to the provinces to get the vote out, and President Deby himself traveled to Mongo (site of a rebel attack April 11),Am Timam, Abeche and Sahr. Fearing election-related violence, many in Chad's remaining international community and reportedly a fair number of Chadians have decided to spend the week in the Cameroonian town of Kousseri, across the river from N'djamena. Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Apparently only four candidates remain out of the original five in the Chadian presidential race: President Idriss Deby, Kassire Coumakoye Delwa, Deputy Minister of Decentralization of the Viva/RNDP party, Mahamat Abdoulaye, former Minister of Telecommunications (MPDT party) and Payimi Padaket Albert, current Minister of Agriculture, of the RNDT/Reveil party. Ibrahim Koulamallah of the MSA/R party is reported to have withdrawn, stating that he was disturbed to discover that the election would not be free and fair. He said that the final straw was hearing Radio France International (RFI) announce that President Deby was expected to win the election. ¶3. (SBU) The campaign is supposed to wrap up on midnight on May 1, with elections scheduled for May 3 (which will be a national holiday). Opposition groups continue to call for a "ville morte" (dead city) on May 3 and for citizens to boycott the elections. The President's MPS Party has gone all out to promote President Deby, with posters, campaign flyers, nightly rallies (with music) and van-loads of youths in new t-shirts and hats careening at high speed around N'djamena. It is a good time for those MPS supporters in the t-shirt business. It is widely believed that many of the MPS boosters are paid. Chadian Ministers have gone to the provinces to get the vote out, and President Deby himself traveled to Mongo (site of a rebel attack April 11),Am Timam, Abeche and Sahr earlier in the week. ¶4. (SBU) DCM met with Ahmat Mahamat Bachir, President of Chad's independent electoral commission April 21 and 28 to discuss the upcoming Presidential elections May 3 and Embassy observation of the elections. Bachir welcomed Embassy interest, and will be providing designated Embassy staff with ID cards and a "laissez-passer" in order to permit them to observe elections. Bachir reviewed the establishment of CENI, which was constituted on December 25, 2005. CENI members swore to their neutrality before the Supreme Court, and have been occupied since then with the organization of the elections. Bachir said that the budget for elections is approximately USD 10 million, of which the Government of Chad is paying USD 9 million (they still have a budget gap of about USD 1 million). ¶5. (SCU) CENI has installed sub-branches throughout Chad, and intends to have some 2,700 CENI representatives spread out through the country. There will be 11,800 voting sites, of which 200 are overseas. Bachir explained that all CENI members have received training. This year they will be using transparent urns (he showed us the clear plastic boxes). All ballots, envelopes and badges have been printed. The last truck transporting materials was scheduled to leave on April ¶22. Voting will start April 30 for nomads (who are given 4 days to vote). Bachir explained that during the four days allocated for nomad voting, CENI representatives would be "following nomads" along their traditional migration routes in order to give them an opportunity to vote. ¶6. (SBU) Asked about security, Bachir responded that they would be holding elections in all areas that were "controlled by the national government" and he did not have concerns about security. He did not elaborate on which areas might be NDJAMENA 00000612 002.2 OF 002 considered beyond the control of the national government. The electoral process is conducted as follows: all citizens whose names appear on the electoral rolls are eligible to vote. Citizens must vote in the district in which they are registered. Counter identification is required in the form of a voter registration card as well as a national identity card (or birth certificate). Bachir felt confident that voting age citizens would have these documents. Voters will have their electoral card stamped, as well as fingers dipped in ink after voting. ¶7. (SBU) Each polling site will have a President, Vice President, Rapporteur and Assistant Rapporteur and two assistants to tally the ballots. There are supposed to be representatives of the candidates in each office. (Comment: this is highly unlikely to be the case, given the small membership base of the candidates' parties. End comment). All present sign a "process-verbal" which is sent to the Sous-Prefecture who then sends it on to N'djamena. There are four copies of this Process Verbal -- one stays with the Chef de Department; one goes to N'djamena, and three go to the Conseil Constitutional. If the Bureau says that there was fraud, the results are nullified. ¶8. (SBU) Bachir told DCM that they might have as many as 1,000 observers, including representatives from the Organization of French Speaking Countries (La Francophonie),from Benin and from Cote D'Ivoire. However, based on attendance at a CENI event for observers held 4/28, Misoffs estimate the total number to be closer to 50 (excluding the U.S. Embassy). Chadian civil society will also be observing (Comment: we are still trying to ascertain which civil society groups will observe. The one group which has expressed a willingness to do so - the Coordination of Civil Society and Human Rights Organizations - CASCIDHO -- is not considered to be independent based on its certification of the referendum). The African Union (AU) is sending 15 observers, according to an AU advance officer. ¶9. (SBU) Chad has 5.6 million registered voters according to the CENI. The last national census in 1993 (considered to have been fairly accurate) showed that Chad had a population of 6.2 million voters. In the absence of a more recent census, the population is generally estimated at 9.9 million. Given normal demographic trends, the number of voters (citizens over 18) appears high, and Chadian opposition groups claim that eligible voters are more likely to number well under 5 million. ¶10. (SUB) Comment: There is considerable unease in N'djamena as elections approach. A good portion of those expatriates still in town (including EU-funded development workers, missionaries and non-Chadian Africans) have decided to spend election week in the Cameroonian town of Kousseri. WALL