CHAD'S FOREIGN MINISTER DEFENDS MAY 3 ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000592 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY SUBJ LINE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2008 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL CD SUBJECT: CHAD'S FOREIGN MINISTER DEFENDS MAY 3 ELECTIONS, BLAMES OPPOSITION FOR IMPASSE Classified By: Ambassador Marc Wall for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Better to have a president chosen in flawed elections than to risk the anarchy that a delay in elections could provoke, according to Chad's Foreign Minister. In other comments in his meeting with the Ambassador April 21, he blamed the opposition for the breakdown in dialogue; attributed unrest in Chad to Sudan's malign ambitions and the conspiracy of Chadian rebels; and argued that Deby's opponents are using his bid for a third term in power as a pretext for trying to overthrow him. The Foreign Minister did raise the possibility of new overtures toward the opposition after the May 3 elections, an opening we would like to explore during DAS Yamamoto's visit April 24-25. End Summary. ¶2. (C) At the request of Foreign Minister Ahmad Alam-mi, the Ambassador called on him April 21. Alam-mi already had a copy of the summary of the recent U.S. press guidance the Ambassador had left with President Deby the day before. Alam-mi took note of the statements calling on Chadians to engage in dialogue to resolve their political differences. He said President Deby had asked him to meet with the Ambassador to explain the GOC's perspective. Better a Faulty Election Now Than a Delay -------------- ¶3. (C) Responding to the Ambassador's question whether or not he disagreed with U.S. statements about the need for dialogue, Alami-mi asserted that the government is in favor of dialogue, but only with the political, not armed, opposition. He acknowledged that dialogue had been blocked for at least two years, but accused the opposition of being responsible for that. They have insisted on President Deby's removal from power as a precondition for engaging in dialogue. They are fixated on the issue of President Deby's bid for a third term in power. They believe it will be an illegitimate mandate. That is what has led to the current blockage, in his view. ¶4. (C) Alam-mi argued that Chad cannot delay the elections due to be held May 3. Chad must have a president considered to be "more or less legitimate." Even if the president is elected by a faulty electoral process, that is better than no elected president at all. NGO's are calling for a delay in the elections, but that would only lead to an impasse and possibly to chaos, he maintained. The Source of Chad's Troubles is Sudan... -------------- ¶5. (C) Turning to Sudan, Alam-mi stated that the armed Chadian rebels are the source of instability now, especially because of their support from Khartoum. He argued that Khartoum does not want peace in Darfur. He said Khartoum thinks Washington is backing the Sudanese rebels in Darfur. Now it is pushing the Tama, Fur, Arabs, and other groups on the border to destabilize Chad. Chad is at the divide between the Arab and African worlds. If it collapses into anarchy, it will destabilize the surrounding region. ¶6. (C) He reiterated the recent clarification of Chad's position on refugees, i.e., because it could no longer guarantee their security, the international community had to step in. But how can security be assured, he wondered, if Sudan opposes an international force in Darfur. For its part, he said, Chad would be glad to accept a UN force on its side of the border. ...Not the May 3 Elections or the Third Term Issue -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) The Ambassador recalled the recent U.S. statements condemning violence on the border and attempts to take power by force. He asked how the elections, expected to be widely boycotted and viewed as hopelessly flawed, would be able to confer legitimacy. He pointed out that the government's insistence on holding these elections as scheduled is contributing to the current instability. He agreed with Alam-mi's statement that the third term issue had helped provoke much of the current unrest. He noted the U.S. stand questioning Nigerian President Obasanjo's consideration of overturning term limits and seeking a third term. ¶8. (C) Alam-mi responded that the elections had to take place, even if the opposition thinks they are rigged. Members in the MPS, the President's governing party, have the right to disagree with the opposition's attempt to delay the election. Everyone is for good governance, but the country cannot risk opening the door to anarchy. Furthermore, he argued, it is not the elections causing unrest. It is rather Darfur, and the conspiracy of some Chadians to seize power, that it doing so. If the third term issue has led to instability, that is the fault of others. It provides the pretext for the opposition to try to get rid of Deby, he claimed. The Time for Dialogue is after Elections -------------- ¶9. (C) The Ambassador observed that Chadians now have no hope that "alternance" (i.e., a peaceful change in leaders) will ever be possible. Alam-mi responded that the referendum overturning constitutional term limits was valid. Deby will not be "president-for-life," he stated. After the elections, he continued, the government will seek to open a dialogue with the opposition and set the stage for a new electoral process. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Alam-mi dismisses far too easily the extent to which President Deby's refusal to lead, or even to acquiesce in, a peaceful transition has sowed the seeds for the many troubles he now confronts. We look forward to probing Alam-mi's comments on plans to reach out to President Deby's opponents after the elections in our exchanges during DAS Yamamoto's visit April 24-25. WALL