CHAD: SOUTHERN OPPOSITIONIST INSISTS ON ELECTION

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000589

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/C, INR, DRL, DS/IP/AF, DS/IP/ITA;
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICAWATCHERS
ADDIS ABABA FOR DAS YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM CD
SUBJECT: CHAD: SOUTHERN OPPOSITIONIST INSISTS ON ELECTION
DELAY

REF: NDJAMENA 586 OR 587


1. (SBU) Summary: Leading Southern oppositionist Kamougue
said April 21 that the political opposition would not be
again deceived into taking a post in a Deby government,
unless the election were delayed, a national conference
convened, and Deby became a titular transitional president
alongside a prime minister who had the real power. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) Wadal Abdelkader Kamougue, leader of possibly the
largest opposition party (based in Sarh) and one of the
senior members of the opposition coalition CPDC, called on
Ambassador Wall April 21 to make a last-ditch plea for delay
of the May 3 presidential election. He said that the
opposition would carry through with its call for civil
disobedience and the election would offer no legitimacy to
Deby's third term. May 3 was a magnet for discord in the
country, and this discord would become ever more dangerous
unless the election were delayed and a national conference
convened to reestablish legality in the country and organize
a proper election within a year or even two. Benin, he said,
had shown the example of how an African country could
proceed, with an independent electoral commission organizing
fair elections.


3. (SBU) The Ambassador asked whether it might be possible,
given the lateness of the date, to go forward with the
election, if Deby made an overture to the opposition
promising to permit it to form a government. Kamougue said
that the opposition had learned hard lessons from the past,
and they knew that such promises from Deby were worthless.
Kamougue had often served as a minister, and as late as a
year ago President Bongo had approached him (Deby hoping to
sweeten the offer by having his senior colleague do the
asking) to ask him to serve as prime minister. Kamougue had
refused and Deby had given the job to fellow Southerner
Pascal Youadimnagi. Kamougue and others in the CPDC knew
well from hard experience that serving as a prime minister or
minister in Deby's government meant nothing -- Deby retained
total power and bypassed his ministers, stealing from the
Treasury as if it were his own private trough and giving
orders as if the Cabinet did not exist.


4. (SBU) On the other hand, Kamougue said, if this election
were delayed and a national conference convened that sharply
reduced presidential prerogatives, it would be possible to
have Deby remain in office for a transitional period, with
the country governed by a prime minister, who would hold the
real power. The Ambassador asked if Kamougue believed the
country would be subject to anarchy during such a transition.
Kamougue said the opposite would be true, as such a national
conference would serve to bind the nation together and be a
safety valve to release the mounting anger. Kamougue said
he had friends and contacts among the armed rebels and he
believed they could be brought along for the sake of the
country. The Ambassador said that it was unfortunate that
the CPDC had not made a clear statement condemning any
attempt to overthrow the government by force. Kamougue
noted that his colleagues Lol Mahamat Choua and Ibni Oumar
Mahamat Saleh had both given interviews to the foreign press
making such a statement, and the CPDC had met the day before
and decided to issue a communique making such a statement.
(Note: The communique that was issued made no such statement,
but rather excoriated Deby and the French. End Note.)


5. (SBU) The Ambassador asked whether the opposition might
be able to put forward a single candidate, if a proper
election were organized. Kamougue said that Yorongar
(outside the CPDC) would likely run, and there would likely
be two from the CPDC. He considered himself to be the
strongest opposition andidate. The CPDC had not yet
discussed the isue, as there was no imminent prospect of a
fair lection and the discussion would be a delicate and
divisive one. As for Deby's ability to capitaliz on
divisions within the opposition, Kamougue sad that Deby's
past practice of simply buying vots would no longer serve
him, because the populac was fed up. Now he could hand out

money, and people would take his money, but they would not
vote for him. Kamougue acknowledged that Chad was a deeply
divided country ethnically and the sense of nation had
diminished under Deby, but he believed a national conference
would reverse that trend.


6. (SBU) Kamougue said that international pressure on Deby
was urgent. He hoped that the advent of the senior American
visitor (DAS Yamamoto March 24-25) would be the timely
occasion for the exercise of that pressure. He agreed that
France had an essential role to play.
WALL