CHAD: MORNING AFTER

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000539 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/C, INR, DRL, DS/IP/AF, DS/IP/ITA; LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICAWATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV AESC MOPS CH SUBJECT: CHAD: MORNING AFTER REF: NDJAMENA 530 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Approximately one hundred prisoners were displayed on the parade grounds in Ndjamena the morning after the April 13 fighting, amid government nervousness that a number of rebels had fled. The French are widely perceived to have been crucial to beating the rebels. Some senior Chadian Arabs have been arrested. Chad has kept most of its forces in the East and maintained control of Adre. Most Embassy personnel and families who were scheduled to depart April 14 did so, and Peace Corps Volunteers departed this morning April 15. Remaining Embassy personnel are permitted to go back to their houses and circulate in the city with caution. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) After the thunder of guns the previous day (reftel),Ndjamena awoke April 14 to general quiet, as the city largely returned to normal, in terms of businesses open, vehicles circulating, people milling about, and absence of checkpoints even before the presidential palace. But police patrols and military transport continue to be more in evidence than normally. Approximately one hundred claimed rebel prisoners were on display for journalists at the principal parade ground, and Chadian soldiers thought to have been complicit with the rebels were also on display. There are reports of hospitals being much fuller than normal, with wounded soldiers as well civilian bystanders caught in the fray. ¶3. (SBU) It does not appear that the fighting on the morning of April 13 spread widely even in the northeastern and eastern sections of town. The area of the Kempinski Hotel and National Assembly were hardest hit, while much of the gunfire and mortars must have occurred in distant suburbs or areas outside the city. FSNs report that some homes in an outlying village were hit by the Chadian helicopter, as the village was thought to have sheltered rebels. Military sources and FSNs report that rebels left their vehicles outside the city and walked in induring the course of the night, and once the tide of fighting went against them, some shed their military garb and put on Arab-style garb to blend into the Muslim populace. There is widespread concern that some of the rebels were thus able to escape. Police sources indicate that 50 rebels have regrouped in Dourbali southeast of Ndjamena (the direction whence the rebels came toward Ndjamena),and the Chadian military is moving today to confront them. We are not aware of mass desertions by Chadian soldiers in favor of the rebels. The populace appears to have given them some succor but remained largely neutral. (Comment: The battle never tilted enough in the rebels' favor to test military or popular loyalty, however tepid such loyalty appears to be, even in the military. End comment.) ¶4. (SBU) We have names of two senior Chadian Arabs who have been detained for collusion with the rebels, Ali Mahamat Zene Ali Fadal (director of SOTEL and a former minister) and Col. Admat Fadoule Makayr, military Chief of Staff, but it appears that many arrests have occurred, especially among Chadian Arabs. Comment: It is too early to determine whether there will be an Arab witchhunt, but some in the Chadian Arab community maintain close connections to Sudan, the janjaweed, and Libya. End comment.) ¶5. (SBU) France is roundly perceived as having been instrumental in the victory. Opposition leader Lol Mahamat Choua, speaking to the Ambassador April 14, sounded a theme we have heard from all sides, that French military aircraft bombed the rebels and gave the Chadian armed forces vital information about their location. ¶6. (SBU) In a radio interview, Deby's rebel relative Timan Erdimi April 14 regretted the rebel move 500 miles across Chad to Ndjamena as poorly thought out and uncoordinated (at least with Erdimi's fellow Zaghawa rebels). He also claimed that the Darfur rebel group SLM had given the Chadian armed forces essential help in the simultaneous battle that has unfolded at Adre on the Sudanese border. (Note: SLM representative in Ndjamena Adam Shoggar called DCM as the rebels neared Njdamena April 12 to express concern for his and the Darfur rebels' safety, if the rebels were to succeed in taking over Ndjamena. Deby has signficantly patched up relations with the SLM since last December. End Note.) According to a police source in Abeche, the Chadian armed forces continue to hold Adre, but further attacks in the East are expected. ¶7. (U) With resumption of normal life in Ndjamena and a general sense that even if rebels are still in the vicinity they no longer represent a significant threat to security, Embassy has decided that remaining personnel can go back to their houses and can circulate on the streets and in the city with caution. Twenty-five of 29 staff and family that sought voluntary departure departed on Air France on the evening of April 13, and the others will follow suit shortly. The 29 Peace Corps Volunteers crossed the Chari River into Cameroon this morning, and the Peace Corps staff have also departed Chad or will be doing so shortly. The American School is closed until further notice. The new Departmental travel warning, which asks American citizens to defer travel to Chad, has been conveyed to the American community through the warden system. WALL