CHAD: GOVERNMENT EXPRESSES WILLINGNESS TO WORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000252 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/C, INR, DRL, DS/IP/AF, DS/IP/ITA; LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICAWATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM CD SUBJECT: CHAD: GOVERNMENT EXPRESSES WILLINGNESS TO WORK WITH OPPOSITION ON ELECTIONS, DONORS SKEPTICAL Classified By: E/C Officer Jitu Sardar for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Chadian Government convoked the diplomatic corps to state its willingness to talk the opposition about participation in the electoral process and to welcome donor assistance for the upcoming elections. Members of the diplomatic corps asked the Government what actions it had taken to convince the opposition to end its boycott of the process and suggested an organization or country with "moral authority" be engaged to help facilitate the dialogue and the elections. The European ambassadors in Chad approached the opposition, for the first time, to discuss their conditions for dialogue. The opposition cited President Idriss Deby's poor track record in conducting free and fair elections, but asked the Europeans to determine if Deby is genuinely willing to hold a transparent elections. The opposition says that France is growing increasingly concerned about the upcoming elections and is intensifying its efforts to persuade them to participate. While all the elements of a Government-opposition impasse remain, the diplomatic community is in agreement that something must be done about the upcoming elections fast. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On February 20, the Chadian Government convened a meeting of the diplomatic corps to discuss preparations for the upcoming presidential elections. Minister of Territorial Administration Mahamat Ali Abdullah stated that the GOC intends on establishing dialogue with the opposition parties, particularly the Coalition of Parties for the Defense of the Constitution and the Federalist party. Ali stated that the GOC, has already begun of the revision of the electoral list and hopes to complete the process by March 8. He is prepared to interact with any political party that wishes to further the election planning process. The Minister noted that while the GOC has installed the Independent National Election Commission (CENI) and is open to the inclusion of opposition parties. (Note: The opposition refuses to join the CENI because it says it will not legitimize what it views as a fraudulent election process designed to keep Deby in power for life. End Note.) Ali added that the GOC welcomes any support from the donor community to help prepare for the presidential elections. The Minister stated that the GOC is concerned that timing is running out if a fair and transparent presidential election is to be held before the end of the current Government's mandate of August 8, 2006. ¶3. (SBU) Following his presentation, Ali permitted the diplomatic corps to provide a response. French Ambassador Jean-Pierre Bercot began by asking if the Coalition for the Defence of the Constitution (CDPC) or Federalist party (FAR) had accepted the Government's call for the establishment of dialogue among the political parties. The Minister admitted that the opposition parties had yet to accept the Government's invitation for dialogue. Bercot then suggested that in order for the opposition and GOC to come together, the African Union could play a mediating role to bring the parties together. The African Union's Ambassador Mahmoud Kane stated that the AU was willing to play such a role, but noted that the European Commission may be better placed, given its higher level of resources. Bercot responded by saying that while the EU could offer technical assistance for the planning of the elections, the AU should act as the "moral supranational entity" that pushes the opposition and GOC to began dialogue. ¶4. (C) After the Government representatives departed, the diplomatic corps, at the request of the AU Ambassador, met separately to pursue Bercot's proposal of an enhanced AU role in the dialogue. UNDP Representative Kingsley Amaning stated that the United Nations, which had spent over a year trying to promote a positive environment for the elections, was extremely frustrated by a lack of commitment by the GOC and opposition to proposed UNDP reforms. Given the pervasive skepticism of the Government's willingness to hold fair election, Amaning stated he and his colleagues feared that an illegitimate election would cause the Chadian political system to collapse. He stated that an intervention by the African Union, if positive and persuasive, could help to re-build the level confidence among the respective parties, and help to salvage the presidential elections for 2006. The AU Ambassador stated that he would examine the possibility of a role by the African Union in facilitating dialogue between the GOC and opposition, and coordinate a discussion with his colleagues in Addis Ababa. - - - - - - - - - - - - - OPPOSITION DOUBTS LINGER - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) The opposition continues to view the Government's public statements as posturing. Salibu Ngarba, the spokesperson for the CDPC, said that the Government shows no signs of fixing the electoral process. For example, there has been no response from President Idriss Deby to the opposition's ideas on the elections and potential transition that were made in September 2005. Ngarba said the CDPC met with the Ambassadors from France, Germany, and the European Commission on February 15 at their request. It was the first time the European embassies called on the opposition party leaders, according to Ngarba. The European diplomats described the situation as "grave". Bercot told the CDPC that dialogue is not possible without the opposition and that the election process as it stands is not viable. The French Embassy's second secretary asked the CDPC its views on prolonging Deby's mandate. ¶6. (C) The CDPC responded that it was willing to participate in a dialogue depending on the answers to the following questions : what is Deby's concept of dialogue and what it the goal of the discussions; does Deby genuinely desire a genuine dialogue, and will he accept a methodological, rigorous approach in order to obtain effective and durable results? In addition, the CDPC outlined the Government's poor track record on elections, including the public referendum. Ngarba told us that it will be impossible for the Government to fix the fatally flawed electoral list within two weeks. The basis for confidence in the process begins with revision of the electoral list, according to CDPC. Ngarba noted that it is now too late in the game. ¶7. (C) When asked who can play a role in facilitating the dialogue between the opposition and Deby, Ngarba replied that the moral authority for ensuring a genuine electoral process lies with the UNDP, the U.S., France, and European Commission, not with the African Union. He said that the French seems preoccupied with the Chadian elections and that Bercot appears to be more anxious to have contact with the opposition. P/E officer asked if Bercot is becoming a broker between the opposition and Deby. Ngarba sees the recent contacts as Bercot's attempt to do so, but the opposition doubts his country's intentions. - - - - COMMENT - - - - ¶8. (C) Donors and key diplomatic missions appear ready to begin seriously discussing the election and transition possibilities together for the first time, particularly the French. However, we find Bercot's suggestion that the African Union become involved as the moral authority in the Chadian electoral process as curious and wonder where it originated. The most qualified organization in Chad to oversee elections is the UNDP, which its representative told us will use this opportunity to once again approach Deby on the process. Nonetheless, Deby's views remain the key to the elections and we do not yet see any sign that he is willing to implement a durable solution to Chad's transition problems, much less hold a transparent election. The opposition, while weak, is showing some signs of maturity and is happy that the European missions appear interested in what they have to say. The CDPC's core group of political party remains more skeptical of Deby than ever. The CDPC's key leverage point is their participation, which they will not give without a serious, sustained commitment by the donors to pressure Deby into allowing a transparent election and subsequent oversight of the process, a tall order given an August 8 deadline and no concrete overtures from Deby. WALL