CHAD:MAJOR BATTLES FOUGHT IN EAST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 001423 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2016 TAGS: PREL PREF PGOV CD SU SUBJECT: CHAD:MAJOR BATTLES FOUGHT IN EAST REF: NDJAMENA 1416 Classified By: POLOFF DAN VERNON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Chadian government has announced that Chadian rebels have been decisively vanquished in the latest round of battles in Biltine and Hadjer Marfaine and pushed back into Sudan. French Ambassador Foucher seconded the GOC's claim that the opposition had been crushed in a conversation with the Ambassador December 13. Both sides are claiming victory, and hard numbers of dead and wounded may be impossible to obtain. But it is clear that the loss of prominent rebel defector, General Seby Aguid, was a blow to the Zaghawa RaFD rebel group. The extent to which rebel movements are able to regroup, put aside differences and coordinate their actions is still key to their continued threat to the Deby regime. According to the French, the SCUD movement has divided, with half returning to the government side. End summary. -------------- The Battle of Biltine -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Idriss Deby Itno left N'djamena for Abeche on December 6 to personally oversee the ANT's defense of eastern Chad. After rebel forces (UFDD) briefly occupied Biltine December 7, subsequent fighting December 9-10 in Arada (some 40 kilometers west of Biltine) appeared to result in heavy government losses. According to the ICRC and other humanitarian aid workers, several truckloads of Chadian Army (ANT) casualties were taken into Abeche and some 150 injured soldiers were being treated there. NGOs considered the fighting to have been the heaviest seen thus far. The Biltine has been evacuated and all civil servants said to have fled to N'Djamena. -------------- Fighting in Hadjer Marfaine -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The next scene of major fighting was the Hadjer Marfaine mountain range. According to an Embassy contact, the December 12 fighting in Hadjer Marfaine began as an assault on UFDD rebels by two columns of the Chadian army, which reportedly included its stronger elements. One column was sent to target Nouri's UFDD elements in Hadjer Marfaine, and another was sent to confront Timan Erdimi's RaFD in Adre. The latter ANT column was reportedly reinforced by elements of the Sudanese rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), allied to President Deby, which had arrived from Guereda. While the initial assault met with success, the rebels regrouped and counter-attacked forcefully. The ensuing battle was said to have been "chaotic," as neither side could discern their own troops from those of the enemy. During the fighting, General Seby Aguid, a high-level defector loyal to Erdimi, was killed as was Mahamat Bourdami, reported to be a relatively high ranking GOC officer. ¶4. (C) Following that battle, the Chadian Government claimed on December 13 that the ANT had launched a decisive attack against the "mercenaries," pushed them back into Sudan and totally destroyed their bases. The GOC reported publicly that ANT forces had chased rebels 20 kilometers into Sudan (reftel). Speaking privately to the Ambassador, French Ambassador Foucher called it a "total victory" of the Chadian army against rebel forces. He also stated that the SCUD had been "cut in two," with some returning to fight on the government side. Final numbers from the battle vary widely, with some contacts reporting over 400 ANT and 100 rebels killed. For its part, the government is claiming 700 rebel dead. These numbers are impossible to verify. -------------- Rebel Prospects -------------- ¶5. (C) Embassy sources have reported that, angered by the death of his top military ally (Aguid) during the recent fighting and by the recent death of his own son Hamdul - and aware of his own limited military capabilities - Erdimi has decided to develop an alliance with Nouri to combat the Deby regime. Another report suggests that the rebel losses in the past week were such that a new offensive may not prove possible before the rainy season. Nouri was heard in an interview with Radio France International December 14 denying defeat, admitting only that his forces had pulled back temporarily and claiming they intended to continue their attacks. NDJAMENA 00001423 002 OF 002 -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) It appears that the recent string of battles in the east concluded in the GOC's favor, even though casualties were sustained on both sides. While both sides will need some time to regroup and rearm, the GOC has greater access to new supplies and fresh recruits. If the indications are correct that relations between Nouri and Erdimi are improving, the question now is whether that alliance can be sustained -- and whether it will constitute a serious threat to the GOC. ¶7. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. WALL