UN DRAWDOWN IN EASTERN CHAD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 001404 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS, ROME FOR UN MISSION E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PREF PGOV SU CD SUBJECT: UN DRAWDOWN IN EASTERN CHAD NDJAMENA 00001404 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The UN convoked donors and UN agencies to describe the deteriorating security situation in eastern Chad and steps the UN has taken to protect staff and ensure the delivery of essential services. Refugee camps in northern Chad are essentially being run by refugee committees with intermittent visits from UN staff. The 90,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs),less able to run on "auto-pilot," require presence of UN and NGO workers to deliver essential services. It is estimated that under current circumstances food, fuel and water will be available for about two months. After moving out non-essential staff, the UN reports that approximately 300 staff (including NGO partners) would need to leave in the event of a full evacuation. UNHCR Director stressed that "no one has been abandoned;" while they recognize the vulnerability of the refugee camps, so far the food and fuel at the camps has not been the target of rebels or other marauders and essential services continue. End summary. ¶2. (U) The UNDP Resident Representative and the Head of UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) briefed donors and representatives of other UN agencies on December 7 concerning the deteriorating situation in eastern Chad and the steps which the UN has taken to protect safe and safeguard essential services for refugees and IDPs. UNSTABLE AND VOLATILE -------------- ¶3. (U) UN Security Officer Idriss Mbaye described the current "unstable and volatile" security situation in eastern Chad where an accelerating deterioration in security has taken place since the end of November 2006. He recalled the taking of Abeche for 24 hours by the rebel group UFDD, the subsequent looting of UN property and humanitarian goods and further tentative movements of Chad rebels towards Ati and Moussoro On December 1 rebels attacked Guereda and then retreated to the border town of Koulbous. In Guereda, armed men forced their way into the UN compound, threatened staff at gunpoint, and stole two vehicles. Presently, according to Mbaye, the UN believed that Am Zoer was under the control of the UFDD and that Biltine had been retaken by the UFDD as well. Mbaye noted that on the Sudan side of the border, both Koulbous and Al Fasher were currently experiencing extreme instability. Movement of troops and locals indicated that there may be some activity in the Goz Beida area. And finally, there was a concern that Central African Republic (CAR) rebels might infiltrate into Chad. Mbaye commented that UFDD and RAFD appeared to be working together; it was clear that the ultimate goal was N'djamena. ¶4. (U) UNDP Resident Representative Kingsley Amaning repeated that the situation had deteriorated rapidly. In an interview with President Deby, the President had told him that the rebels had between 5,000 - 6,000 men, and 400-500 vehicles. According to Amaning, the rebels were here to stay -- they were not returning to Sudan. The UN, NGOs, Chadian army, Chadian rebels, Sudanese rebels and Chadian IDB were now all occupying the same perilous zone. Amaning thanked the Embassy of France for permitting UN and NGO partners to stay in the French base during the last attack on Abeche. He explained that the UN intended to continue working, but sought to minimize the exposure of UN staff and assets. Accordingly, the UN had moved to level IV security in the East, and level III security in N'djamena. REFUGEE COMMITTEES IN CHARGE -------------- ¶5. (U) UNHCR Director Serge Male explained that UNHCR was drawing down to essential staff so as to reduce its footprint in the event of a full evacuation. He noted that some 250 UN and NGO workers had been trapped in Guereda during the recent fighting December 1, and the aim was to avoid a similar situation. But no one will be abandoned. The UN will focus on the essential activities, which are protection, food, water and sanitation. As Guereda, Iriba and Bahai were deemed the most vulnerable security-wise, UNHCR is leaving a skeleton staff and has instructed partners to focus on the essential sectors only. Core staff from Abeche were flying out for 24-hour visits to provide support, but essentially refugee committees were running the camps -- including food and fuel distribution. Male commented that the December 4 food distribution had been performed successfully. WFP NDJAMENA 00001404 002.2 OF 002 Representative Bamezon stated that there were stocks in transit to guarantee sufficient food for the camps for January. Libyan truckers were continuing to bring food down through Libya for the time being. However, WFP, which lost some 489 metric tons of looted commodities in Abeche (destined for school feeding),has suspended its development activities in eastern Chad and canceled or postponed all non-essential field missions. ¶6. (U) Concerning President Deby's message on the need to move the refugee camps, Male explained that the UN agreed in theory. However, suitable sites still needed to be found; the refugees would need to accept such a move, and the move would need to be financed. IDPs -- GROWING - AND VULNERABLE -------------- ¶6. (U) Male explained that while the camps were, to a certain extent, able to operate on "auto-pilot", IDPs were not, and therefore they had kept some UN/NGO partners with the IDP groups. IDPs now numbered 90,000 according to Male and donors would be receiving a new appeal before Christmas for their support. Male called the population in the east bitter and demoralized. Dadjos were particularly targeted. The UN was being told by locals that Arabs have come asking them to join in raids of their neighbors. They refuse, but are then the victims of raids themselves. UNHCR reports continue to chronicle Arab militia attacks on small village in Dar Silla, leaving scores dead and forcing hundreds to flee -- mostly to the Goz Beida area. UNDP Res Rep Amaning noted that it appeared to be more than coincidence that rebel attacks were often preceded by Arab militia raids. Amaning also noted that the UN had not eliminated the possibility of negotiating with whoever is there to ensure access to humanitarian space. INTERNATIONAL FORCE -------------- ¶7. (U) In response to the Ambassador's question on an international force on the border, Amaning responded that they did not know what kind of force it would be. Would it be dissuasive only? Would it interpose itself between warring sides? He emphasized that any force needed to be perceived by all sides as neutral. It also needed to be strong, and be able to guarantee humanitarian space. The African Union Ambassador asked if it was envisioned placing this force without the political support of all parties (i.e. Sudan)? Amaning responded that Sudan had already said that it did not want a force next door; but if the UN agreed, and Chad accepted, then it could be placed regardless of Sudan's position. But of course, he added, it was preferable to have unanimity on the question. ¶8. (U) Commenting on the deteriorating political situation, and the perspective of donors, the French Embassy Deputy commented that if Sudan continued to support the rebels, the situation would continue. If Sudan ceased to support the rebels, the situation would not continue. UN CONTINGENCY PLANNING -------------- ¶9. (U) Both the UN and WFP have established alternate command centers in Cameroon, and reported that they would be able to use UN planes currently operating in Sudan if the situation took a turn for the worse and widespread evacuation was necessary. 41 international staff are left in Abeche, 90 in N'djamena. Humanitarian NGO partners in the region number ¶140. In the event of a full evacuation, the UN would be taking about approximately 300 staff members. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The UN considers that the most likely scenario is far more attacks by rebel groups inside the country leading to a breakdown in government control and increased insecurity. They are planning accordingly. ¶11. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. WALL