CHADIAN REBELS PULL BACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 001268 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS, USEUCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016 TAGS: ASEC MOPS PREL CD SUBJECT: CHADIAN REBELS PULL BACK REF: N'DJAMENA 1259 Classified By: PolOff John O'Leary. Reasons 1.5 (c) and (d) ¶1. (U) There were no reported rebel advances today (10/25). Rumors have the rebels located anywhere within the Chari Baguimi district (11,00 N; 17,00 E),as well as near Mongo (12,11 N; 18,42 E) and Am Timan (11,02 N; 20,17 E),from 200 to 400 KM from N,Djamena. Embassy sources, including a well-connected Goran (ethnicity of one of the major rebel factions),stated that rebels began pulling back from Am Timan toward Sudan last night. ¶2. (C) According to DAO sources, Chadian air assets support by French air reconnaissance have hit rebels forces near Abou Deia (11,27 N; 19,17 E); and the rebels are withdrawing. According to these sources, the Chadians are pursuing with troops from Mongo and are moving troops from Ade (12,40 N; 21,54 E) toward Goz Beida to block the rebel retreat. (Comment. Source emphasized that the Chadian army does not want to fight in Goz Beida due to the proximity of the refugee camp. End comment.) The French Ambassador basically confirmed the DAO report in a conversion with Ambassador Wall this morning. The French Ambassador added that French aircraft would fire on the rebels the next time the rebels fired a surface-to-air missile at them. ¶3. (U) Rebel leader Mouhammed Noori said on Radio France International this morning that the rebels do not plan to attack N,djamena for the moment. He called for "national dialogue" between the rebels and President Deby,s government and for free and transparent elections. ¶4. (U) Sources are now telling Embassy that fighting in Iriba (15,07 N; 22,15 E) reported reftel was an inter-ethnic clash rather than a rebel incursion. ¶5. (U) N,Djamena is quiet and traffic is light. Many workers and vendors appear to have stayed home today, ignoring government calls to continue normal routines. Tanks and APCs are still positioned around town but were moved back to more "discreet" locations. ¶6. (U) There are numerous reports that firearms have been issued to civilians within N,Djamena, whether by the government to its adherents or by local ethnic or neighborhood groups to defend against looters. There have been reports of single and automatic weapon shots throughout the day, probably recipients testing weapons as they receive them. ¶7. (U) The Embassy is functioning normally, and the International and French schools are open. NGOs in Goz Beida are pulling their expatriate staff to Abeche to "regroup". The UN and World Bank are limiting operations. ¶8. (C) Comment. The rebel movement into central Chad has embarrassed the GOC and President Deby and has raised doubts about the government,s ability to control Chadian territory. Absent a crushing defeat at the hands of the Chadian National Army, the rebels have achieved a victory, even if they retreat to the safety of Darfur. End comment. ¶9. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. WALL