N'DJAMENA ON HIGH ALERT

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 001259 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS, USEUCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2016 TAGS: ASEC MOPS PREL CD SUBJECT: N'DJAMENA ON HIGH ALERT REF: N'DJAMENA 1255 Classified By: PolOff John O'Leary. Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Summary. N'Djamena is on high alert as rebel forces have moved into central Chad. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) With the end of Ramadan and the beginning of the dry season, rebel activity, as expected, has increased in eastern Chad. Embassy contacts are reporting that rebel forces entered the eastern town of Goz Beida on Sunday (10/22),Am Timam (11,02 N; 20,17 E) on Monday, and overnighted in Abou Deia (11, 27 N; 19,17 E) on Monday evening. There is an unconfirmed report of fighting in Iriba (15,07 N; 22,15 E). Sources believe it is rebel strategy to take and hold either Mongo (12,11 N; 18,42 E) or Ati (13,13 N; 18,20 E),both in central Chad, until reinforced by rebel units still along the Chad/Sudan border. ¶3. (C) French Ambassador Bercot told Ambassador Wall today (10/24) that the French currently suspect that the move by the rebels into central Chad is designed to draw the Chadian National Army (ANT) from its heavily fortified positions along the Sudan border. With the border weakened, rebel reinforcements would be able to enter Chad and join rebel units in the vicinity of Mongo. The French have verified that 40 to 50 vehicles are involved in the operation. Some are loaded with fuel containers. Both the rebel forces and the Chadian army have avoided contact so far. Another Embassy source stated that an ANT column led by BG Moussa Sougui and Col. Abderahim Bahr Itno was searching for the rebels in order to engage them in battle, but was unsuccessful in finding them and returned to Mongo. ¶4. (C) According to DAO sources, last night the 1st PSI (Pan-Sahel Initiative) battalion was sent to reinforce Mongo, where rebel forces appear to be heading with 50 to 100 vehicles. The 2nd PSI battalion will remain on alert in Koundoul near N,Djamena to defend the city. The Chadian army postponed the training of a 3rd PSI battalion, scheduled to begin this morning, until the situation stabilizes. ¶5. (U) Embassy officers noted the deployment of at least two tanks around the presidential palace, and guards appeared to be more alert than usual. A tank passed by the Chancery this afternoon (NFI). RSO expects a significant increase in checkpoints and roadblocks beginning this evening. ¶6. (U) The situation in N,Djamena is currently calm, though rumors abound. ESSO is sending 21 dependents out of country this evening on commercial air and possibly 10 TDYers out tomorrow. The French have not changed their security posture but are meeting with French citizens this afternoon. We held an EAC meeting this morning (Septel) and are preparing a warden message for American citizens. We will hold a joint warden/OSAC meeting tomorrow. ¶7. (U) Comment. The initial reports indicate that rebel forces may be acting in concert, something they have been unable to do in the past. Current GOC and rebel activity indicates better strategic and tactical thinking on both sides than was exhibited in the rebel attack on N,Djamena last April. If it is indeed rebel strategy to draw the ANT from its fortified positions in eastern Chad, the ANT has not yet taken the bait. The lessons of the rebel defeat last April at the gates of N,Djamena and the ANT defeat last month at Hadjer Mufane appear to be taking hold, for now. Alternatively, if a major clash occurs and GOC forces are defeated, Deby may no longer be capable of rallying the troops. End comment. ¶8. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. WALL