SECURITY IN EASTERN CHAD FOLLOWING GOC-REBEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 001184 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF, D, DRL, PRM; LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICAWATCHERS; GENEVA FOR CAMPBELL E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREF ASEC CD SU SUBJECT: SECURITY IN EASTERN CHAD FOLLOWING GOC-REBEL CLASHES REF: NDJAMENA 1167 Classified By: ECONOMIC/CONSULAR OFFICER JITU SARDAR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B ) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Following the most recent clashes in eastern Chad between GOC forces and Chadian rebels, President Deby has returned to N'Djamena and is trying to negotiate with individual rebel factions, but still appears to be reinforcing his military along the eastern front. The rebels appear to be attempting to organize themselves for a future offensive in the coming weeks or months. Chadian authorities are convinced that the Chadian rebels are continuing to receive assistance from the Sudanese government. END SUMMARY. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - THE BATTLES OF ARAM KOLLE AND HADJER MARFAINE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Following Embassy N'Djamena reporting in reftel on the fighting that took place on September 12 in Aram Kolle (near the eastern Chadian town of Guereda) and September 19 in Hadjer Marfaine (located north of Adre),we have received more information from UNHCR and Embassy contacts on both battles. According to them, the GOC deployed over 5,000 troop to the area of Hadjer Marfaine to dislodge Chadian rebel groups allied to the Rally of Democratic Forces (RaFD), led Timan Erdimi, a relative of Deby and an influential member in Deby's Zaghawa tribe. Deby personally went to oversee the military operations when he learned that his troops were reluctant to fight against the RaFD rebels, many of whom were former army deserters and relatives of officers in the Chadian national army. ¶3. (C) According to UNHCR's sources in the GOC and French military, the Chadian national army movement was hampered in Hadjer Marfaine by poor road conditions, which eventually permitted rebel groups to reinforce their defensive positions and mount a series of ambushes that inflicted a number of casualties on the Chadian military. UNHCR sources in the Chadian military hospital in Abeche reported that the medical staff received 119 injured soldiers, and were unable to treat all of the wounded. While no one can confirm the number of soldiers who died in the combat, the Chadian rebels publicly claim that 213 Chadian soldiers were killed, 164 were wounded, 47 were taken prisoner. The rebels also claimed to have lost four soldiers, and had 17 wounded fighters. ¶4. (C) In the area of Aram Kolle, which was the site of a September 12 confrontation between GOC troops and rebels loyal to the United Force for Change (FUC),led by Chadian rebel leader Mahamat Nour, clashes took place again on September 22 in what GOC sources described as a "clean-up operation" to remove 100 rebels who were still in the area. According to UNHCR's sources, these operations, while more effective than the GOC's activities in Hadjer Marfaine, still failed to neutralize the FUC rebels, and some GOC soldiers were apparently reluctant to fight. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - NEXT STEPS FOR GOC AND REBELS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Local GOC authorities have already admitted that the Chadian national army suffered an unexpected defeat at the hands of rebels in Hadjer Marfaine. Complicating matters in the unknown whereabouts of former Chadian Minister of Defense and prominent Chadian rebel leader Mahamat Nouri, who is reported close to the border between Chad and Central African Republic. Nouri, who commands a fairly sizable rebel group, reportedly assisted the RaFD's counter-offensive against the GOC and inflicted a number of casualties against the Chadian national army. ¶6. (C) Presidential Security Advisor Abderahmane Moussa told the Ambassador n September 25 that advisors asked President Deb to return to N'Djamena, as he was accomplishing lttle by remaining in the field and could potentilly be targeted by rebel groups. He told the Ambssador that the interactions in Hadjer Marfaine ndicated that Zaghawa relatives in the Chadian military and rebel movement did not want to fight each other, making future offensives potentially difficult to mount. The possibility of defections to the rebel cause, and the sharing of information between GOC and rebel elements sharing familial ties, would further hamper the GOC's military activities. In order for the violence to stop, according to Moussa, the GOC would have to consider a political solution that involved the politico-military elements. Presidential Cabinet Director NDJAMENA 00001184 002 OF 002 Mahamat Hisseine told the Ambassador on September 27 that the GOC was already beginning negotiations with individual rebel groups. ¶7. (C) Embassy contact Yacoub Abdelwahid told Economic/Consular officer on September 28 that his GOC sources confirmed that negotiations were taking place, but described the negotiations as the "buy-off" of specific rebel groups to ensure that the individual rebel groups would not organize into a large-scale movement against the GOC. He also noted that the GOC would continue to reinforce its military positions in Hadjer Marfaine, in anticipation of a rebel offensive, as the rebels were emboldened by their relative success against the GOC on September 19. Various rebel groups, according to Abdelwahid, were planning to hold a conference in Sudan in the coming weeks to unite politically, and organize their military efforts for a large-scale offensive against the Chadian national army. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - POSSIBLE SUDANESE INVOLVEMENT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) The conference, noted Abdelwahid, will not include Sudanese officials. Nevertheless, GOC officials claim that the Sudanese government is still providing support to the Chadian rebel movement. Presidential Security Advisor Abderahmane Moussa told the Ambassador that Sudan was involved in providing intelligence to the rebel movements on the GOC's activities (accusations that were also made by NMRD representatives during past meetings with the Ambassador). During a brief meeting with Economic/Consular officer on September 29, the Governor of Ouaddai claimed that Chadian rebels wounded during the clashes in Hadjer Marfaine were receiving medical treatment in El Genina from Sudanese doctors. He also asserted that the Sudanese were continuing to provide weapons, munitions, and vehicles to the Chadian rebel movements. - - - COMMENT - - - ¶9. (C) If negotiations with the rebel groups fail, we should expect another attack to take place in the coming months. Attempts by the various Chadian rebel groups in the past have failed. But if they could succeed this time, this, together with a Chadian army that is reluctant to fight against their Zaghawa relatives, could spell disaster for the Deby regime. If allegations of Sudanese support are true, we can probably expect the Chadians to begin open support for Sudanese rebel movements operating against the Sudanese Armed Forces in Darfur. ¶10. (U) Tripoli Minimize Considered. WALL