SOMALIA: FIGHTING IN MOGADISHU AND POTENTIAL IMPACT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000840 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF, EUR, NEA STATE PASS AID LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2026 TAGS: PGOV PTER EAID PREL MOPS ASEC KPAO SO KE SUBJECT: SOMALIA: FIGHTING IN MOGADISHU AND POTENTIAL IMPACT ON BAIDOA MEETING REF: NAIROBI 766 CLASSIFIED BY A/POLCOUNS L.PETERSON, REASONS 1.4 (B,C,D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (S) Heavy fighting in Mogadishu February 18-21 between the Alliance to Combat Terror and militias associated with Jihadist groups was, at its heart, a conflict among sub- clans of the large Hawiye clan. Several militias associated with Islamic Courts and their founding sub-clans have expanded their area of control in Mogadishu. Some sources claim that Islamist control of the capital is now sufficient to deny Mogadishu-based warlords access to most of the city, but other sources tend to contradict this information. The Mogadishu fighting may hinder attempts to bring the TFIs together in Baidoa in a semblance of governance for the country. Post proposes that Assistant Secretary consider sending a letter to the main protagonists encouraging them to maintain their commitment to a parliamentary meeting. END SUMMARY. ALLIANCE TO COMBAT TERROR -------------- ¶2. (S) An entity called the "Alliance for Peace Restoration and Combat Against Terror" was launched February 18 at the Mogadishu compound of TFG Warlord/MP/Minister for National Security Mohamed Qanyare Afrah. Members of the alliance were listed as: TFG Warlords/MPs/Ministers: -- Mohamed Qanyare Afrah (Hawiye Murosade clan) -- Muse Sudi Yalahow, Minister for Commerce (Hawiye Abgal Da'oud) -- Omar Mohamed Mohamud (AKA "Filish" or "Finish"),Minister for Religious Affairs (Hawiye Abgal Da'oud) -- Botan Isse Alim (AKA "Harankunah"),Minister for Demobilization (Hawiye Duduble) Militia Commanders: -- Abdi Nur Siyad (AKA "Abdi Wa'al" -- Hawiye Haber Gedir Ayr clan) -- Abdi Shuri Ali Hersi (Believed Darood Majerteen) -- Isse Osman Ali (Unkn) -- Abdi Hassan Awale Qeybdid (AKA "Abdiqeybdid" -- Hawiye Haber Gedir Sa'ad) Businessmen: -- Bashir Raghe Shirar (Hawiye Abgal Warsangeli) -- Abdirashid Shie Ilqeyte (Hawiye Haber Gedir Sa'ad) ¶3. (S) The announcement of the Alliance included a manifesto that described the group's intention to confront Wahabist groups accused of assassinations, protecting foreign criminals, and carrying out intolerable acts in Mogadishu in the name of Islam. Articles from Mogadishu's Xorriyadda newspaper opined that the Alliance "... was established with the help of the U.S. entity assigned with combat against terror," and called businessman Bashir Raghe Shirar one of the leaders of the group, stating that he had "close ties with American agencies ... in particular the CIA ..." FEBRUARY 18 COMBAT, FEBRUARY 19 WORDS -------------- ¶4. (C) Heavy fighting began early the morning of February ¶18. Shots were exchanged between Abdi Wa'al's militia and members of a force controlled by one of Mogadishu's Islamic Courts prior to the announcement of the Alliance, with the Islamic courts suffering some casualties. Fighting intensified following the announcement of the Alliance, as members of the aforementioned Islamic Court militia demanded NAIROBI 00000840 002 OF 003 that Qanyare turn Abdi Wa'al over for Ayr clan-based justice. Qanyare refused to do so. ¶5. (S) February 19 saw a lull in the fighting. Press reports and indications from personnel working in Mogadishu for the European Commission (EC) and the UN Department for Security and Safety (UN DSS) reported that key figures from the Islamic Courts, including Hassan Dahir Awaeys (Haber Gedir Ayr) were disseminating propaganda through the Ayr- owned media. Ayaamaha newspaper reported a call for Jihad against the Alliance from the Sheikh Ali Sufi Mosque in south Mogadishu, as well as demonstrations against the Alliance led by the Movement for Civil Society. Xorriyadda newspaper reported that Warlord/MP Yusuf Mire Serar (Hawiye Haber Gedir Ayr),Vice Chairman of the Kismayo-based Juba Valley Alliance (JVA),condemned the Alliance as a ploy to establish control over the capital for its members. FEBRUARY 20-21 -- CLAN COMBAT -------------- ¶6. (C) February 20 saw the fighting resume. Somali contacts across clan lines stated that the veneer of a battle between anti-terrorists and Islamist extremists had worn through to show the sub-clan conflict underneath, pitting Qanyare's Murosade against the Ayr and their associated Islamic Court militias, with forces of the Warsangeli businessman and Islamist supporter Abucar Omar 'Adaani in support of the Ayr. The fighting centered in South Mogadishu and the southwest outskirts of the city around Danyile, where Qanyare has his compound and airfield. ¶7. (C) Combat erupted again with first light February 21. Early reports indicated that Qanyare's forces may have succeeded in pushing the Ayr and Ayr-dominated court militias back toward central Mogadishu, but by the end of the day most observers agreed that the two groups had fought to a stalemate, with the Ayr controlling some more areas of the capital than before February 18. Somalia Watcher's contacts describe Qanyare as isolated in his compound outside the city, and Muse Sudi and his fellow Da'oud clansman Omar Filish as confined to their suburb of Medina. We cannot independently confirm these claims. FEBRUARY 22 -- CLAN MEDIATION -------------- ¶8. (S) As of February 22, Mogadishu was quiet, with a mediation effort among the Warsangeli, Ayr, and Murosade elders apparently bearing fruit (and with militias likely out of ammunition). Militias from 'Adaani and Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed are both reported to have withdrawn somewhat from areas they had threatened to consolidated positions. UN DSS sources in Mogadishu report that around 50 MPs were able to leave the capital en route to Baidoa. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (S) The results of the fighting may be seismic or inconsequential - it is simply too early to tell. Islamists have definitely gained turf and may have won hearts and minds among a public tired of warlords and suspicious of foreign interference. Some contacts say the public perceives the Alliance members as having grossly overstepped their boundaries, having attacked all devout Muslims, not just violent Jihadi extremists. ¶10. (S) Attempts to bring the TFIs together under the umbrella of the Transitional Federal Parliament in Baidoa could be threatened by the Mogadishu fighting. Before the fighting, the Ayr were ostracized from the power centers of the TFIs, and the Jihadists among them were fearful that a return of effective governance would threaten their survival. After the fighting, these elements may feel more comfortable. Political Ayr might now state that they must have a place in the TFIs - if they ask for one. NAIROBI 00000840 003 OF 003 ACTION REQUEST -------------- ¶11. (C) Plans continue for a parliamentary meeting in Baidoa. If the event opens as planned on February 26, it is likely real discussions will only start several weeks later, as facilities are still being rehabilitated. In this recess period, given the uncertainty of the situation in Mogadishu, Post considers it important to emphasize to all members of the TFIs the necessity of follow-through on the parliamentary meeting. Letters last month from Ambassador Bellamy to the TFI President and the principal warlords in Mogadishu and several other sensitive regions (copied to the Prime Minister and the Speaker) were seen as positive, and may have helped to build some support for a session of parliament. We believe we should step up to another level diplomatically and therefore recommend that Assistant Secretary Frazer issue a letter to these same leaders. SIPDIS Following is a proposed text. 12 (C) Text of a possible letter to main protagonists in Somalia: BEGIN PROPOSED TEXT The United States Government is following closely reports of the resurgence of violence in Mogadishu. We believe that these events make it that much more important that the Somali Transitional Federal Parliament convene as scheduled. We see this as indispensable to the process of establishing functioning institutions leading to effective governance in Somalia. Only through effective governance can the extremist threat in Somalia, well known to the international community, be appropriately confronted. The United States Government supports the convening of the Somali Transitional Federal Institutions. We call upon all Transitional Federal Ministers and Members of Parliament, as well as the civil society, business and religious communities to join in these concrete steps toward implementing their commitments to the Somali people to bring peace through inclusive dialogue and reconciliation, within the framework of the Transitional Federal Charter. END PROPOSED TEXT. BELLAMY