KENYA DROUGHT UPDATE ? FEBRUARY 2006

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000744 SIPDIS AIDAC AID/DCHA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK, LROGERS DCHA/OFDA FOR KISAACS, GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, KCHANNELL, LPOWERS, CABLA (A)AA/AFR FOR WWARREN DCHA/FFP FOR BHAMMINK, DNELSON, SBRADLEY AFR/EA FOR JESCALONA, JBORNS ROME FOR FODAG GENEVA FOR NKYLOH BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER STATE FOR JGAFFNEY, NGAREY NAIROBI FOR ABEO NSC FOR JMELINE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID KE EAGR EIND PGOV SOCI SUBJECT: KENYA DROUGHT UPDATE ? FEBRUARY 2006 REF: NAIROBI 7343 AND PREVIOUS SUMMARY ¶1. The short rains (October-December) food security interagency assessment has been completed. The overall assessment process and methodology was coordinated and backstopped by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) comprising of representatives of GOK, NGO and UN agencies. USAID/Kenya Emergency Coordinator participated in the assessment in an observer capacity covering pastoralist areas in the North East. ¶2. The assessment find that short-rains season failed in much of eastern and northern Kenya. Where rains occurred, they began late, were poorly distributed, and ended early. The current drought extends not only through Kenya but also much of southern Somalia and Southern Ethiopia. Recovery from the extended drought will not be immediate, and pastoralists in particular will need continued support to avoid further erosion of their productive assets. ¶3. On February 8, 2006, the GOK made an appeal for international assistance to 3.5 million drought- affected people in Kenya. It is estimated that a total of 395,026 MT of food will be required to assist victims of drought through March 2007. Out of this requirement, approximately 60,000 MT will be met through domestic production, leaving a net import requirement of 335,026 MT. In addition, $21.7 million will be required in non-food assistance. ¶4. US Ambassador to the FAO and WFP, Tony Hall visited drought-affected areas of Kenya from February 13-15, 2006. End summary. The food security assessment framework ¶5. An interagency and multi-sectoral food security assessment, organized by the Kenya Food Security Group (KFSSG) has completed the fieldwork and data analysis and issued its final report on February 8, ¶2006. ¶6. The assessment methodology was based on a livelihoods approach to understanding vulnerability, and used an adapted version (for rapid assessment) of the household food economy method for the field data collection. Given the urgency in conducting the assessment, the KFSSG determined to undertake the assessment in three phases: 1) The first phase included districts where there were clear indications of serious drought impacts on food security. 2) In phase two, rapid assessment teams spent 2-5 days in meeting with the Arid Lands Officers and District Steering Groups in severely drought-affected areas and discussing food and non-food needs. 3) The final phase of the assessment centered on districts where livelihood strategies are more diverse and the impact of failed rainfall on income sources, assets and coping mechanisms more complex. ¶7. The assessment covered 27 districts from January 9-31, 2006. It included quantitative data collection at the household, market and community level and more in-depth discussions with the District Steering Groups (DSGs). As appropriate, the assessment teams held separate meetings with lead NGOs dealing with food security that have representation in the District, local district experts, local community based organizations, etc. ¶8. Based on the assessment, approximately 3.5 million people in Kenya will require various short to medium term relief assistance through the next short rains harvest in March 2007. The relief assistance includes an estimated 395,026 MT of food valued at approximately $221 million. In addition, the report identifies $21.7 million worth of non-food assistance in health and nutrition, water and sanitation, and emergency agricultural and livestock interventions. ¶9. The report also highlights the need to strengthen food security analyses to allow a more sophisticated analysis of the acute and chronic food security issues prevailing in Kenya. Food security and agro-climatic conditions ¶10. According to FEWS/NET, Kenya experiences mild cyclical drought events approximately every 3-5 years with more severe dry periods roughly in ten-year cycles. Since 1998, successive poor rainy seasons have limited the ability of poor households in parts of the ASAL (Arid and Semi-Arid Lands) to recover lost assets and employ traditional coping mechanisms. In addition to lack of rains, limited purchasing power, political marginalization (in the pastoralist context) and limited livelihood options are exacerbating the drought in Kenya. ¶11. The current drought may be characterized as a regional crisis in which pastoralists and agro- pastoralists in Northern Kenya, Southern Somalia and Southeastern Ethiopia are all affected at the same time, disrupting their trans-boundary mobility (in search of water and grazing) and traditional coping strategies. ¶12. In Western Kenya, the long-rains (March- June) season are the most important season accounting for close to 85 percent of total annual crop output. However, while the contribution of the short-rains season is significantly lower, it remains the most important season for farm household in the drought- prone southeastern lowlands. The short-rains season accounts for close to 70 percent of annual output in these areas. ¶13. While overall national crop production is favorable, (most of it is derived from the western highlands) farmers in the lowlands have experienced a series of exceptionally poor seasons that culminated in a near-total crop failure during the 2005 October- December short-rains season. ¶14. The purchasing capacities of farm households in the lowlands have declined markedly and many households are under severe food stress. Although cereal prices are lower than average and lower than in the previous year, drought affected-farmers are unable to purchase quantities of grain that can sustain household food security. ¶15. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), total national output for the 2005/2006 season is about 2.7 million MT, marginally higher than average annual maize output. While current domestic supply is sufficient to meet local non-emergency demand through the beginning of the 2006 long rains harvest (at the end of July),a good 2006 long-rains season is critical in replenishing national maize supply. Should the long-rains season fail to come by April, maize prices could dramatically rise as farmers and traders hold on to their stocks for speculative purposes. Emergency Operation (EMOP) status ¶16. Based on the short-rains assessment, EMOP districts increased from 17 to 26 and the number of people requiring food aid has sharply increased from 1.2 to 3.5 million. According to the World Food Program, over 30,000 MT of monthly ration is required to address immediate food needs of 3.5 million people through March 2007. ¶17. Existing pipeline (including GOK?s recent pledge of 60,000 MT and USG additional contribution of 10,000 MT) will not go beyond end March 2006. Shortly after the GOK?s appeal for international assistance on February 8, 2006, a joint GOK/WFP press statement was issued, reiterating the need for donors? immediate response to the appeal to respond to the urgent relief needs of approximately 3.5 million drought-affected people throughout Kenya. ¶18. In FY 2006, the USG provided 12,000 MT of wheat, which was swapped for 14,400 MT of locally provided maize, and an additional 10,000 MT in assorted commodities. In addition, the USG, through OFDA, is planning to contribute $1.5 towards the non-food sector through UNICEF and various NGOs. ¶19. More recent non-USG contributions include Euro 5 million from EU/ECHO, GBP 1 million from the UK, Euro 1 million from France, Euro 1 million from Ireland, $500,000 from Italy and $200,000 from Turkey. Additional contributions are also expected from other donors. Ambassador Tony Hall's Visit to Kenya ¶20. US Ambassador to the FAO and WFP, Tony Hall visited Kenya from February 13-15, 2006. During this period, he visited a drought-affected pastoralist district (Wajir) in Northeastern Kenya and a successful irrigation project in Rift Valley (Turkana, supported by P.L.480 TII development program. He was accompanied by Ambassador William Bellamy and USAID/Kenya Mission Director, Stephen Haykin in his trip to Northeastern province. (Reported septel) ¶21. Under the auspices of REDSO, a Pastoralist Working Group (PWG) in Kenya briefed Ambassador Tony Hall about the regional food crisis and the group's effort to address the problem through potential famine funds. Discussions on longer-term food security issues ¶22. At present, there are initiatives within the agency and among humanitarian actors in Kenya to address the problem of persistent food insecurity and extreme vulnerability in the region. In addition to responding to the prevailing humanitarian needs, USAID/Kenya is actively participating in these discussions aimed at addressing the root causes recurrent drought and chronic vulnerability in Kenya's Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASAL). ¶23. One of these initiatives is a Pastoralist Working Group (PWG) that has been formed, under the auspices of REDSO, to brainstorm on the root causes of vulnerability, particularly in the pastoralist areas of the Horn of Africa where vulnerability to drought is evident. The group aims at identifying viable interventions and ultimately developing a proposal to tap into potential famine funds. USAID/Kenya co- chairs this group and plays key role in the development of the proposal. ¶24. USAID/Kenya is also actively engaged in informal Humanitarian Donor Group discussions, organized to improve understanding of the factors underlying repeated food crises in marginal areas and identifying new approaches to breaking the cycle of relief dependency. Further details on these discussions will be provided in a separate cable in the future. Conclusion and recommendations ¶25. The failure of the short rains in Kenya has a regional context as similar drought conditions exist in neighboring Somalia and Southern Ethiopia, among other places in the region. As a result, pastoralist livelihoods across the country and the region are severely threatened as the very basis of their food security system, livestock, are dying in unprecedented numbers due to lack of water, browse and pasture. ¶26. However, the crises also affected significant number of marginal agricultural and agro-pastoralist communities living in Kenya's semi Arid and Semi Arid areas. For instance, out of the 3 million persons targeted for general food distributions, approximately 2 million are classified as marginal crop producers and agro-pastoralists. ¶27. The food crisis in marginal agricultural and ASAL areas is clearly much deeper than Emergency. It is rather a fundamentally chronic poverty problem, necessitating strategies to address the root causes of food insecurity. This calls for urgent policy actions by the GOK that promote targeted investment in the areas in order to reduce levels of poverty and extreme vulnerability. Notwithstanding the climate variations and the ensuing unreliability of rains, the areas are endowed with diverse resources that, if managed creatively, could significantly improve the livelihoods of the communities at risk. ¶28. USAID/Kenya will continue to play an active role in the dialogue around understanding the factors underlying repeated food crisis in various parts of the country to find new approaches to protect poor people from short-term shocks and reduce their food insecurity in the medium term. This discussion will enable to affirm joint GOK donor commitment to tackling chronic food insecurity in a more appropriate manner. In this context, it is also recommended that the food security analysis be enhanced to allow a more sophisticated analysis of the acute and chronic food security issues facing millions of Kenyans today. ¶29. Meantime, given the likelihood of serious emergency food pipeline break beyond March 2006, the USG should strengthen its relief assistance to meet urgent food and non-food needs of millions of people expected to suffer from the drought. BELLAMY