FORMER GANG LEADER'S ENTRY INTO POLITICS LEAVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 005282 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2026 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM KE SUBJECT: FORMER GANG LEADER'S ENTRY INTO POLITICS LEAVES THREE DEAD REF: A. NAIROBI 5112 ¶B. 04 NAIROBI 863 Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a likely foreshadowing of a troubled election year ahead, a political rally in Kenya's largest slum turned violent on December 17 leaving three dead. Police had earlier denied permission for the gathering, organized by Ndura Waruinge, a feared criminal gang leader turned pastor and now a parliamentary hopeful. The meeting and subsequent violence also had a troubling tribal tint, pitting Waruinge's Kikuyu supporters against Luos loyal to Langata constituency incumbent and prominent opposition leader Raila Odinga. END SUMMARY. RALLY PREDICTABLY LEADS TO BLOODSHED -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On December 17, parts of Kibera, East Africa's largest slum, erupted into violence between supporters of Langata constituency parliamentary seat hopeful Ndura Waruinge and incumbent prominent opposition leader Raila Odinga, leaving three dead. Following an earlier ban on rallies in the slums (in the wake of deadly riots in Nairobi's Mathare slum in November, reftel) police had denied Waruinge permission to hold an event on December 18. Waruinge's supporters defiantly assembled, but were met by Odinga's supporters. The two groups clashed. Riot police were sent in to restore order. Later in the day Odinga visited Kibera, accusing the government of targeting the wrong people (his Luo supporters) while Waruinge threatened to revert to his old (violent) ways, if indeed he had ever left them behind. WARUINGE: A "TAMED" WOLF RETAINS HIS FANGS -------------- ¶3. (C) Waruinge, the former leader of the notorious Mungiki (Kikuyu) criminal gang, which the government banned in 1999, claimed a break with his violent past in 2004 (ref B) and became an ordained pastor. He recently formed a party, the Youth Empowerment Association (YEA),as a vehicle to contest the Langata parliamentary seat. To Ken Njau (protect), Executive Director of NGO Citizens Against Violence (CAVi) what transpired on December 17 was expected. In September he told poloff that Waruinge had recruited Njau for his expertise in organizing youth. Far from a development movement, Waruinge's interest in mobilizing youngsters was to create roving gangs of thugs. Njau told poloff Waruinge would not hesitate to instruct his followers to use violence. Y.E.A.'S RUMORED GOVERNMENT CONNECTION -------------- ¶4. (C) Echoing Odinga's claim following the recent Kibera violence that some elements in the government are supporting Waruinge behind the scenes, Njau in September had questioned the speed with which the Registrar of Societies had accepted Waruinge's YEA party. Combined with Waruinge's choice of constituency (Odinga's; in media reports Waruinge has been quoted as stating that only Odinga poses a sufficient challenge) Njau thought Waruinge had a high-placed patron. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Although ODM-K leader Raila Odinga is tagging this episode a "government project" to suppress the opposition, it is noteworthy that the police applied their ban on rallies uniformly, even to an anti-opposition group. Further, the police followed the law in disrupting (albeit forcefully) a gathering for which permission had been denied, even if, and especially if, Waruinge's political patrons are powerful officials. The big story, however, is the ugliness the Kibera incident foreshadows as Kenya's elections draw nearer. END COMMENT. RANNEBERGER