CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER ? DECEMBER 2006

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004155 SIPDIS SIPDIS AID/DCHA FOR WGARVELINK, LROGERS DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, PMORRIS, SSTOKAR DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, TANDERSON, CMUTAMBA, GEILERTS AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE, KNELSON AFR/SD HLIGHTFOOT, FSANDS ROME FOR FODAG RNEWBERG GENEVA FOR NKYLOH ADDIS ABABA FOR MJENNINGS, SPOLAND BUJUMBURA FOR RLUNEBURG DAR ES SALAAM FOR TMCANDREWS KAMPALA FOR WWELZ, DMUTAZINDWA KHARTOUM FOR JPOOLE, KLAUER KIGALI FOR RWASHBURN, SVENANT NAIROBI FOR JMYER, MTSEGAYE, MHALL USUN FOR TMALY BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KE SUBJECT: CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER ? DECEMBER 2006 AND ITS EXPECTED POTENTIAL IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY IN THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA SUMMARY ¶1. This is a joint cable prepared by FEWSNET Nairobi and USAID/East Africa?s Food for Peace Office. USAID/EA/FFP and Regional Economic Growth and Integration (REGI) Offices attended the 18th Climate Outlook Forum (COF) August 31 ? September 1, 2006 in Nairobi, Kenya. It was convened by the Inter- Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with the National Meteorological Services of most of the 10 member countries, and various other partners. [Note: ICPAC received support from USAID/OFDA (this support is now ending) and has continued institutional strengthening support from USAID/EA REGI Office. End Note.] The objective was to formulate consensus guidance for the September-December 2006 rainfall season in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). This forum convenes semi-annually, and participants review the state of the global climate system and its implications for seasonal climate in the GHA sub-region. Major factors taken into account include the observed and predicted Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean and over much of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean, which are known to have a bearing on the upcoming weather in the GHA. The Climate Outlook is summarized in para(s) 5-7. End Summary. COMMENT ¶2. The semi-annual COF meetings are an important occasion for African, Africa-based and foreign climate experts and stakeholders to consult with each other. The resulting forecast represents a consensus and is the result of a great deal of research and analysis. Information this year has helped provide an effective early warning to stakeholders, including USAID, that rainfall patterns in the Horn of Africa and have informed relief operations. ¶3. The climate predictions are also relevant to other sectors: ICPAC products contribute to monitoring, prediction, early warning and mitigation of adverse impacts of extreme climatic events on agricultural production and food security, water resources, energy, and livestock and human health among other socio- economic sectors. The activities of the Centre also include capacity building for climate scientists and users alike. ¶4. ICPAC represents an important successful investment by several USAID operating units, mainly DCHA/OFDA and USAID/EA/REGI, which serves the needs of early warning in the context of an effective regional context, and complements the role of FEWSNET. ICPAC is a partnership synergizer, as partnership in all these results and potential results is key. CLIMATE OUTLOOK AND POTENTIAL IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY ¶5. The short-rains (September ? December) season constitutes an important rainfall season over much of the equatorial sector of the GHA sub-region. This is the second rainfall season, after the long-rains (March ? May) rainfall season. ¶6. Overall, the seasonal rainfall forecast for short- rains is generally favorable, as the forecast indicates an increased likelihood for normal seasonal rainfall performance for most parts of the GHA sub-region. This means favorable conditions for crop, pasture and water resources replenishment for both the agricultural and pastoral livelihoods in the region. This could ensure the gradual recovery process for the drought affected pastoralists communities. ¶7. In areas where there is the increased likelihood for above normal to normal rainfall in central highlands of Ethiopia, Lake Victoria basin and along the East African coast and parts of northern Kenya there is an increased flood risk in perennial flood prone areas along the Juba, Shabelle river basins in Somalia, Nyando river basin and parts of the Kenya coastal strip. Most seasonal forecasts indicate that the rains are expected to intensify in the months of November and December, and therefore the flood risk maybe more pronounced during these two months. This could affect negatively the overall good crop prospects. Flooding could also pose health problems, such as increases in water-borne diseases and malaria incidences. ¶8. More specifically, this forecast depicts prospects for a near normal crop production for much of the short-rains dependent areas in GHA. The short-rains crop production account for about 15% of the annual Kenya crop production and 25-35% for Somalia. Although these rains do not seem to account much for the national annual crop production for most of the GHA countries they are especially important to marginal agriculture in Kenya, as they are the most reliable and highly depended on. For the pastoralists, they are also particularly important in breaking the June ? September dry season. METHODLOGY ¶9. This favorable forecast is based on the development of a weak El-Nino episode, occasioned by the mild anomalous warming of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST?s) in eastern Pacific Ocean, coupled with the warming of the central Indian Ocean, which is conducive to good rains. The current weak El-Nino event in development will require close monitoring in coming months to ascertain its potential impact in the sub-region. CONCLUSION ¶10. If the forecast holds, then, we are likely to see a decline in populations needing humanitarian assistance, especially among the farming communities on the eastern sector of the GHA. ¶11. If the forecast does not hold and below normal rainfall performance (worst-case scenario) does occur, then the pastoralists, agro-pastoralists and marginal agricultural populations, especially in southeastern Ethiopia, northern and eastern Kenya and most of Somalia will significantly be affected, worsening the current food and humanitarian crises in the region. RANNEBERGER