AWEYS' POSSIBLE WEAKNESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 003292 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2026 TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PTER SO SUBJECT: AWEYS' POSSIBLE WEAKNESS Classified By: PolCouns L. Andre, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) In a July 26 conversation, European Commission Senior Political Advisor on Somalia Walid Musa shared that Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) leader Hassan Dahir Aweys is unable to travel to Mogadishu because of disputes with clan leaders in the city. He has likewise been unable to appoint more than a handful of individuals to the self-proclaimed parliament for Mogadishu, making him appear less powerful than previously believed. ¶2. (C) Although apparently unable to go to Mogadishu, Aweys has a tool in his kit that could help him weather his current difficulties and potentially come out ahead of the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs). The strongest of these is a 400-strong youth movement known as the shabaab. This movement has representation from the Hawiye, Rahanweyn, and Daarood clans, although the adherents reportedly place the interests of the movement above clan consideration. (COMMENT: Thus, Aweys appears to be having some success in re-creating a cross-clan entity, which could help him survive over the long run. END COMMENT.) ¶3. (C) Musa expects that Aweys knows inter-clan rivalries will emerge within the UIC and there is little he will be able to do to prevent them. However, Aweys likely calculates he will be able to weather any such divisions. Musa thought it essential that the international community start engaging directly with the clans, using these traditional structures to establish a way forward between the TFIs and the UIC. This would, in turn, undermine the unity of the UIC, ideally giving the moderates the upper hand in this body's internal power relationships. ¶4. (C) Musa also shared some of the personal dynamics involved between President Yusuf and Aweys. Yusuf, having been held hostage at one time by Aweys' supporters, still feels a need for revenge. In addition, Musa posited that Yusuf is not as intelligent as Aweys, and is therefore not as able to adapt to the rapidly changing circumstances in Somalia. While Yusuf's military career advancement came about through pressure and support from his clan, Aweys is believed to have earned his rank by virtue of his intelligence and strong performance in the military academy. HOOVER