PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS: PRO-KIBAKI PARTY WINS

UNCLAS NAIROBI 003270 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PREL KE SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS: PRO-KIBAKI PARTY WINS 3/5; KANU PAYS FOR DITCHING ODM ALLIES REF: NAIROBI 3214 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: NARC-Kenya's victory in three of five July 24 parliamentary by-elections was a much needed endorsement for the Kibaki government following several months of setbacks from November's referendum defeat and the public exposure of the massive Anglo Leasing corruption scandal. The newborn party's success in two traditionally KANU constituencies sends a message to the opposition that despite the government's shortcomings, KANU cannot go it alone. The Electoral Commission of Kenya's transparent and professional polling contrasted with credible reports of bribery and inappropriate use of government resources, underscoring that administratively Kenya can run a clean election, but the politicians are a slower study. END SUMMARY. ELECTORAL COMMISSION PERFORMED WELL -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Amid allegations of inappropriate use of state resources by campaigning NARC-Kenya members, and voter bribery on the part of KANU, the July 24 by-elections in five Kenyan constituencies -- Nakuru Town near Nairobi, and North Horr, Saku, Laisamis, and Moyale, in north Kenya -- proceeded successfully, with no incidents of violence or intimidation. The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) once again ran a transparent, well-regulated election. At the more than 70 polling stations visited by coordinated diplomatic observers, including from our Mission, electoral officials complied with procedures in a professional, non-partisan manner. Taking into account the pastoral population, in the four northern constituencies the ECK deployed "mobile polling stations." These voting booths were sent to a location determined by where voters were concentrated just prior to election day. ¶3. (SBU) Observers noted a high turnout of women voters, although no women candidates, including two widows vying for the seats of their deceased husbands, were successful. The media, many members of which made the long trip to Marsabit and Moyale, are credited with highlighting campaigners' abuses, broadcasting images of a Minister arriving at a pre-election rally in Marsabit in an air force plane. Voters in some constituencies were easily able to identify government of Kenya vehicles whose license plates had been replaced to obscure their official origin. Vote buying by both KANU and NARC-Kenya was documented as well. KIBAKI GETS A BREAK, FINALLY -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The by-elections were a proving ground for the 2007 general election. NARC-Kenya, and hence the Kibaki government, has emerged buoyed, confident of its prospects as a national party with reach well beyond the Kikuyu heartland. On the last day of campaigning, Kibaki openly endorsed the NARC-Kenya candidate, at the same time as the latest public opinion poll placed him ahead of his nearest presidential competitor, LDP's Kalonzo Musyoka. KANU, however, has suffered a major set back, unable to maintain that its defeat in 2002 was simply an aberration. Whatever expectations Kenyans had of the Kibaki government that remain unfulfilled, they evidently would not prefer a return of KANU. The defeat in two of four northern constituencies, in which he had previously been so influential, is a nail in former president Moi's political coffin from which he had tried to exhume himself during the run-up to the by-election. It is also a repudiation of Moi's go-it-alone policy for KANU and may mark a return to coalition politics for the humbled former ruling party. TAKING STOCK FOR 2007 -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Although the election result may have some effect on the government-opposition split in Parliament, more significant is how the parties will interpret the outcome in formulating their strategies for the 2007 general election. The by-election vote is a net loss of two seats for the opposition, but the margin between them and the government is closer to 20 seats. This tally of seats, however, only holds if NARC, or what's left of it, stays on the government side of the aisle. Reports following the July 24 election suggest that disaffection among the remnants of the 2002 coalition is growing. ¶6. (SBU) The broader implication of the by-election, given most politicians' focus on 2007, is how opposition and government will configure themselves for next year. NARC-Kenya, newly conceived and supported by a large swathe of ministers and pro-government MPs, is yet to proclaim who its presidential nominee will be. Their likely candidate, Kibaki, has not formally declared his allegiance to the new party. This may be a technicality - if an MP officially changes parties he must be reelected to office - (although this rule has not stopped others from abandoning the original NARC),or it may be an effort to keep his NARC (Kikuyu) support base consolidated by not alienating the NARC elements that have not gone over to NARC-Kenya. That said, NARC-Kenya and NARC did both field opposing candidates in some of the races, the latter quite unsuccessfully. ¶7. (SBU) KANU, on the other hand, will have to reconsider its reluctance to ally with LDP; although LDP deferred to KANU in the four northern contests, KANU's rebuff of the ODM alliance cost it the votes of the few LDP supporters there are in that region. This may have made a difference in the two races in which the margin was a 1,000 votes or less. In Nakuru, LDP and KANU ran candidates against each other. Their total votes, if combined, would have been nearly sufficient to defeat the NARC-Kenya candidate, a point LDP's Raila Odinga has not failed to make. KANU will also have to rethink Moi's usefulness as a party figurehead. The former president does not have the influence he once did. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Another round of polling has passed in Kenya without the rigging and bloodshed that characterized elections in the country's not-so-distant past. NARC-Kenya's victory in two traditionally KANU domains, as well as in Nakuru, as expected, may signal that Kenyans want national, multi-ethnic parties instead of ones based on regional and tribal considerations. Nonetheless, NARC-Kenya's performance is indelibly stained by the credible allegations that its supporters abused their access to government resources. END COMMENT. ¶9. (U) Following is the text of the July 26 press statement issued by the diplomatic missions which observed the by-elections. PRESS RELEASE We, the undersigned Heads of diplomatic missions based in Nairobi, were invited by the Electoral Commission of Kenya to participate as observers of the by-elections held on 24 July in Laisamis, Moyale, Nakuru, North Horr and Saku. Twenty-one members of staff from our diplomatic missions, accredited as observers by the ECK, visited more than seventy polling stations in the five constituencies. We commend officials and staff of the ECK for their efforts to conduct a professional and transparent by-election process. Our observers did not witness any instances of intimidation or violence at the locations visited on polling day. We observed ECK officials consistently complying with election regulations in a non-partisan, professional manner. We are concerned by credible reports of misuse of state resources for partisan campaigning by government officials, including ministers, in violation of electoral regulations. We are also concerned by credible reports of attempted bribery of voters by representatives of some political parties. We call on leaders of all parties to enforce the highest standards of conduct by their members and to ensure their members do not engage in such abuses in future elections. We will continue to follow Kenya's democratic process in the spirit of partnership that has characterized our support for this country and its people. Canada, the European Commission Delegation, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. HOOVER