PRELIMINARY PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION RESULTS HAND

UNCLAS NAIROBI 003214 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KE SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION RESULTS HAND VICTORY TO NARC-KENYA REF: NAIROBI 3090 ¶1. (U) Preliminary results from the parliamentary by-elections held on July 24 give the newly formed NARC-Kenya party a lead over its rivals in three out of the five constituencies left vacant following an April plane crash in which the sitting members of parliament were killed (reftel). NARC-Kenya won in Nakuru Town, North Horr, and Saku constituencies, while KANU took the lead in Moyale and Laisamis constituencies. Voter turnout throughout the constituencies was low, but not unreasonably so, considering by-election standards. Embassy observers, deployed in three of the constituencies, reported calm conditions in almost all polling locations. Reports of a few isolated, minor incidents of violence did little to affect polling or voter turnout. ¶2. (U) A break down of the voting is as follows: Nakuru Town: NARC-Kenya 21,599; LDP 16,769; and KANU a distant third at 4,526. North Horr: NARC-Kenya 5,578; KANU 4,628. Saku: NARC-Kenya 5,760; KANU 5,007. Laisamis KANU 6,821; NARC-Kenya 5,010. Moyale (with only two-thirds of the final vote results recorded): KANU 8,301; NARC-Kenya 4,546. ¶3. (U) The polling results underscore the importance of unity within the opposition (LDP and KANU) should they seek to prevail at the polls in late 2007. In Nakuru Town, the respective LDP and KANU candidates split the vote to deliver a victory for the NARC-Kenya candidate (the late MP's son). The combined votes for KANU and LDP nearly matched the total for NARC-Kenya, pointing to the possibility that, had they pulled together, as they had initially indicated they would under the banner of ODM, they could have defeated the NARC-Kenya candidate. Elsewhere, the success of the newly-created (and government-supported) Narc-Kenya party may give some credence to the persistent rumors of the misuse of government funds in campaigning for the party throughout northern Kenya. ¶4. (U) A more detailed analysis of the by-election outcome and it's implications for the domestic political scene will be sent upon the return of the Embassy's observer teams. HOOVER