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06NAIROBI3214 2006-07-25 13:05:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Nairobi
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1. (U) Preliminary results from the parliamentary
by-elections held on July 24 give the newly formed NARC-Kenya
party a lead over its rivals in three out of the five
constituencies left vacant following an April plane crash in
which the sitting members of parliament were killed (reftel).
NARC-Kenya won in Nakuru Town, North Horr, and Saku
constituencies, while KANU took the lead in Moyale and
Laisamis constituencies. Voter turnout throughout the
constituencies was low, but not unreasonably so, considering
by-election standards. Embassy observers, deployed in three
of the constituencies, reported calm conditions in almost all
polling locations. Reports of a few isolated, minor
incidents of violence did little to affect polling or voter

2. (U) A break down of the voting is as follows:

Nakuru Town: NARC-Kenya 21,599; LDP 16,769; and KANU a
distant third at 4,526.
North Horr: NARC-Kenya 5,578; KANU 4,628.
Saku: NARC-Kenya 5,760; KANU 5,007.
Laisamis KANU 6,821; NARC-Kenya 5,010.
Moyale (with only two-thirds of the final vote results
recorded): KANU 8,301; NARC-Kenya 4,546.

3. (U) The polling results underscore the importance of unity
within the opposition (LDP and KANU) should they seek to
prevail at the polls in late 2007. In Nakuru Town, the
respective LDP and KANU candidates split the vote to deliver
a victory for the NARC-Kenya candidate (the late MP's son).
The combined votes for KANU and LDP nearly matched the total
for NARC-Kenya, pointing to the possibility that, had they
pulled together, as they had initially indicated they would
under the banner of ODM, they could have defeated the
NARC-Kenya candidate. Elsewhere, the success of the
newly-created (and government-supported) Narc-Kenya party may
give some credence to the persistent rumors of the misuse of
government funds in campaigning for the party throughout
northern Kenya.

4. (U) A more detailed analysis of the by-election outcome
and it's implications for the domestic political scene will
be sent upon the return of the Embassy's observer teams.