PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS SET THE MOOD FOR 2007

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 003090 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2026 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KE SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS SET THE MOOD FOR 2007 REF: A. NAIROBI 1600 ¶B. NAIROBI 1157 Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On July 24, five new members of parliament will be chosen in the largest by-election in Kenyan history. Not only is the upcoming election significant in its size, but also for its timing - little more than a year before the next general election, and its location - four of the constituencies are in Kenya's far northern region bordering Ethiopia, an isolated area historically neglected by Nairobi. The by-election has raised the profile of former President Moi's continuing political influence, and stoked the debate over the viability of the ODM alliance between main opposition parties KANU and LDP. END SUMMARY. NORTHERN KENYA: ISOLATED, NEGLECTED, AND INSECURE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Kenyans have been anticipating the historic July 24 by-election since April 10 when a plane crashed in Marsabit carrying the MPs for five constituencies: Nakuru Town near Nairobi, and North Horr, Saku, Laisamis, and Moyale, in north Kenya (ref A). Remote from the center, geographically, ethnically, and politically, it is unusual for semi-arid, resource-poor, underpopulated Marsabit and Moyale Districts (which comprise the four northern constituencies) to be the focus of so much attention. During the colonial era, the region was largely outside British control. It was barely administered and received only very minimal government investment. Post-independence, the same pattern held, resulting in a large, sparsely populated and minimally governed expanse of territory bordering southern Ethiopia. With little physical and administrative infrastructure, and cultural traditions in some quarters favoring raids and cattle rustling against ethnic rivals (including the cross-border varitey, coming from Ethiopia),insecurity is a serious problem in the region. Smuggling and arms trafficking are also widespread. The five MPs killed in the April crash were on a mission to reconcile an ongoing ethnic conflict. MOI'S NORTH -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Former President Moi is off the bench and into active politics. In spite of their relative isolation from Nairobi, Moi held considerable sway in the four constituencies. Moi's influence in the area stems from his strategy of appealing to minority populations with plum assignments in his government for their favorite sons. North Horr MP Bonaya Godana who was killed in the April 10 plane crash was one such individual, having served as Moi's foreign minister. After fading out of politics following the 2002 election, Moi has used the by-election debate to once again exert his political muscle in backing the KANU candidates, and at the same time throw sand at LDP. Shortly after the April plane crash, Moi took a tour of the region, deliberately traveling by road to emphasize the deplorable physical infrastructure, promising to raise the area's development needs with President Kibaki. Acknowledging KANU's strength in this part of Kenya (all four MPs who died were KANU, although some had started working with the government),on July 6 LDP announced "in the spirit of ODM" it would not enter any candidates in the four northern races. Moi seized on the decision, highlighting it as a sign of weakness - further to his point that KANU should go it alone, out from under the ODM umbrella, in the 2007 general election. (NOTE: LDP's decision to back KANU in the north, and the likely sympathy vote for the party of the dead MPs potentially tilts the balance in KANU's favor. However, NARC-Kenya, KANU's principal rival in these by-elections, has been accused of misusing government resources - such as vehicles and civil servants - to advance its campaign, which could bring some votes its way. END NOTE.) MIXED NAKURU -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Although more mundane than the remote north, Nakuru is also a contest to watch. Capital of Rift Valley Province (and slowly losing its strong association with the Kalenjin populace),bordering predominantly-Kikuyu Central Province, and a short drive from Nairobi, Nakuru is a thoroughly mixed community and will be hotly contested. All of the party figureheads have made their way through Nakuru campaigning hard for their parties' candidates. Of the five, the Nakuru race is where pro-government NARC-Kenya stands the best chance of a debut victory. In addition, this contest is the first post-ODM parliamentary vote in which KANU and LDP candidates will face off. During the Kasipul-Kabondo by election (ref B) an LDP stronghold constituency, KANU deferred to LDP and did not enter a candidate, while both parties (mostly LDP) praised ODM cooperation. The three-way race and ethnic mix make Nakuru anyone's seat to take. The Kikuyu vote will be split between KANU and NARC-Kenya (a reincarnation of Kibaki's NARC, although he has not formally committed to it). Those Kalenjin who support William Ruto (Kalenjin Ruto is the only KANU leader to adamantly support the ODM alliance) are likely to vote LDP, while the rest will stick with KANU. ANOTHER TOUGH JOB FOR THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION -------------- - ¶5. (SBU) The Electoral Commission of Kenya, which earned great respect in the 2002 general elections and the 2005 constitutional referendum for its non-partisan, principled performance and smooth logistical implementation, has its work cut out for it organizing elections under the difficult conditions of northern Kenya. The ECK notes that it has hired aircraft to deliver election materials, will have additional security throughout the constituencies, and will even employ mobile polling stations locating voters in three of the four northern voting areas. Nonetheless, in an area characterized by insecurity and a highly mobile, sparse population, gathering high voter turnout will be a challenge. ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuitu expressed to members of donor missions his concerns of intimidation in all five constituencies. In north Kenya, the specter of intimidation is heightened by the great number of arms in civilian hands, particularly those of the chiefs. Kivuitu suspects chiefs, aided by their weapons, will attempt to influence voters. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: LDP's concession to KANU is less likely a move to keep the ODM alliance alive than it is rational political calculation. Stepping aside in the name of cooperation is a face-saving move, but has only fueled Moi's anti-ODM tirade. The north is a tough first contest for the infant NARC-Kenya, and a critical test of its strategy to define itself as a national (not tribal/regional) party. Given the importance of this vote, we plan to contribute as many observers as possible to a joint donor observer mission, although we are limited by the very remote location of the four northern constituencies. END COMMENT. ROWE