CORRUPTION IN KENYA: LET THE FIREWORKS BEGIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 000284 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E TREASURY FOR ANN ALIKONIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2030 TAGS: PGOV ECON EFIN KCOR KE SUBJECT: CORRUPTION IN KENYA: LET THE FIREWORKS BEGIN Ref: 05 Nairobi 5103 Classified By: John F. Hoover, Economic Counselor. Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: It is widely expected that a newspaper serial exposing in gory detail evidence of grand scale corruption in the administration of Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki will begin the week of January 22. If so, it will likely destabilize an already fragile administration. Kibaki appears aware of the coming storm, and has already taken half-steps to preempt the bad news. Whether he uses (or is forced to use) the coming revelations to at long last enforce a semblance of political accountability within the leadership class remains to be seen. End summary. ¶2. (C) Post remains in regular contact with Mugo Githongo, the brother of Kenya's former "anti-corruption czar" John Githongo. The latter resigned from his post in February 2005 and has been in self-imposed exile in the UK ever since. As detailed reftel, Githongo is now ready to go public with everything he knows about high-level corruption in the Kibaki administration in connection with the now infamous Anglo-Leasing scandals and other similar grand- scale procurement scams worth hundreds of millions of dollars. ¶3. (C) Mugo Githongo told Econ/C January 21 that the Nation, Kenya's largest daily newspaper, will publish a series of articles the week of January 22 which will reveal the contents of his brother's extensive dossier of evidence of wrongdoing and cover-up at the highest levels of the Kibaki administration in 2003 and 2004. Post is privy to the 19-page summary of the 90-plus page dossier upon which the series will be based. ¶4. (C) Also privy to the summary dossier for several weeks at least are President Kibaki and Aaron Ringera, Director of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission (KACC). Seemingly cognizant of the imminent expose, Ringera announced on January 19 that in consultation with Kibaki, the KACC would be re-questioning Vice President Moody Awori (under whose Home Affairs docket the Anglo-Leasing scandals unfolded), Finance Minister David Mwiraria, Justice Minister Kiraitu Murungi, and former Internal Security Minister Christopher Murungaru. All of the latter publicly proclaimed their innocence and welcomed the opportunity to clear their names. ¶5. (C) In another apparent attempt to get out in front of the coming storm, Kibaki invited the press to an offsite on January 19 and 20 where he lectured all ministers, assistant ministers, and permanent secretaries on "the imperative that you act with honesty and impartiality." At the offsite, the assembled cabinet team will sign both performance contracts and letters of engagement committing them to adherence to a new KACC-drafted ministerial code of conduct in order "to enhance collective responsibility, ethics, and results from government." -------------- -------------- IMF Worried, but Thinks Kibaki Will Turn it Around -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador January 20, International Monetary Fund Country Director Godfrey Kalinga expressed dismay at the re-emergence of the Anglo- Leasing scandal, and seemed clearly worried that Githongo's imminent revelations will put at risk a scheduled February 22 IMF Board vote on the second review of Kenya's $325 million Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility. Kalinga the previous day had had a long heart-to-heart meeting with Kibaki, the upshot of which, according to Kalinga, is that Kibaki sees the handwriting on the wall and will within one week be asking the ministers implicated by the Githongo dossier to step down from their jobs. -------------- Brits Think Otherwise -------------- ¶7. (C) Kalinga's perspective is contradicted, however by second-hand reports from a high-level UK delegation that met with Kibaki on January 16. Reports from that meeting have Kibaki evading opportunities to make a strong commitment to adherence to the new code of conduct. Indeed, one British High Commission contact present said Kibaki was outright dismissive of the code. Kibaki also indicated the government would not be releasing any time soon the Goldenburg Commission Report, which documents the largest scandal in the previous administration of Daniel arap Moi, but which also apparently implicates a number of currently prominent political figures, including Education Minister George Saitoti. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) One way or another, it appears we are set for some fireworks in the coming days and weeks. The Githongo dossier will not only embarrass the Kibaki administration, but is likely to destabilize it. While the IMF Country Director believes Kibaki has finally seen the light and will soon dismiss key allies in his Cabinet, we are far less sanguine. This is indeed a golden opportunity for Kibaki to regain public trust by dismissing suspect ministers and going on the offensive against corruption. If sincere in so doing, he would position himself strongly for re-election in 2007. But Kibaki has had a number of similarly golden opportunities to show such leadership in the past and each time failed. ¶9. (C) A better bet is that Kibaki, in tandem with the KACC's Ringera, will announce new investigations into the Anglo-Leasing scandals as a way to placate public outrage in the short-run, and then use the results of those hush- hush investigations (which might be conveniently delayed for many months) to exonerate members of his administration in the long-run. For many, this won't be enough nor should it be. If Kibaki again refuses to instill political accountability by dismissing suspect ministers, then Kenya could be headed for yet another severe bout of political instability, dysfunctional governance, and donor dismay. BELLAMY