GETTING TO AN INTERAGENCY 3D APPROACH TO

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002744 SIPDIS AIDAC SIPDIS STATE FOR AFR/AA FOR LPIERSON AFR/EA FOR KNELSON, JBORNS DCHA/AA FOR MHESS AND WGARVELINK DCHA/OMA FOR TBALTAZAR; CMM FOR JDERLETH, EKVITASHVILI DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN DCHA/OTI FOR RJENKINS ADDIS ABABA FOR BHAMMINK, PASS TO KSULLIVAN DAR ES SALAAM FOR MLATOUR DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN, PASS TO AMB. RAGSDALE, CPATCH, KAMPALA FOR MELLIS KHARTOUM FOR EWHITAKER SANAA FOR MSARHAN STATE S/CT VPALMER STATE S/CT MHAWTHORNE E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: SECDEF OSD SOLIC SUBJECT: GETTING TO AN INTERAGENCY 3D APPROACH TO COMBAT TERRORISM IN THE HORN OF AFRICA REF : A) 05 Nairobi 00137; B) Nairobi 01263; C) Nairobi 01653 SUMMARY 1.(U) USAID/East Africa organized a meeting (June 5 to June 7) to advance an interagency planning framework to counter terrorism and extremism in the Horn of Africa (HOA). The participants represented all the three ?Ds? of the 2006 National Security Strategy? Diplomacy, Development and Defense. Attendees included staff from the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Ethiopia, USAID Kenya, Ethiopia and East Africa (including staff from the Limited Presence Countries/Somalia),USAID/DCHA/OMA, senior planning staff from Combined Joint Task Force- Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) and the Office of the Secretary of Defense/Stability Operations and Low SIPDIS Intensity Conflict (OSD/SOLIC). This meeting was a follow-up to a 3D meeting hosted by CJTF-HOA at Camp Lemonier military base in Djibouti (Reftel B). 2.(U) The three day meeting was a positive step forward for further coordination of the 3D strategies for the region and combating terrorism in general. Participants agreed to develop a joint planning framework, mechanisms for coordination, and a monitoring process. Adopting an identified set of factors that leaves the HOA vulnerable to extremism (Reftel B),participants targeted specific strategic geographical areas for further analysis and program development. Another meeting will be held within two months. Improved field-level collaboration, such as this meeting, can serve as a model to enhance intergovernmental collaboration in areas that are unstable or vulnerable to extremism. 3.(U) This is an Action Cable see para 17. INTRODUCTION 4.(SBU) USAID/East Africa Mission Director, Dr. Andrew Sisson, opened the meeting by presenting an unclassified brief of the recent regional Chiefs of SIPDIS �00A;Mission (COM) meeting in Nairobi on counter-terrorism to help guide the discussions. He reported that the COM meeting concluded there was a terrorist threat in the region largely emanating from Somalia, as it is widely recognized that Al Qaeda is present but supported by other actors. A regional approach to combat terrorism is necessary and should include the objectives of denying safe havens for terrorists and addressing the underlying social and economic conditions that foster extremism. 5.(U) In order to efficiently and effectively employ USG resources to counter the threat in the region, Dr. Sisson stressed the need to build knowledge capital and intellectual leadership and maintain real time knowledge capital in order to respond to issues such as: where do we focus, what are the underlying conditions, what end-state do we desire, how do we monitor progress, who do we invest in, and who do we partner with. Sisson strongly emphasized that any work from this group must come under the leadership of the State Department in the region. 6.(U) Jim Derleth from USAID/DCHA/OMA summarized progress in Washington since the meeting at Camp Lemonier in late February (Reftel B). He stated that high-level support in Washington for 3D collaboration is evident in critical aspects of the National Security Strategy and National Strategy for Combating Terrorism and further exemplified by Congress' passage of Section 1207 of the FY06 National Defense Authorization Act, which provides DoD the authority to transfer funding to civilian agencies for reconstruction and stabilization assistance. USAID's Office of Military Affairs is leading joint USAID-DOD civil affairs training exercises to build intellectual capacity and interagency understanding while enhancing operational flexibility and impact in Afghanistan and Iraq. 7.(U) Embassy and USAID teams representing Kenya and Ethiopia identified mitigation of the terrorism threat as a high priority and discussed their progress in developing activities to combat this threat. The teams realize that the process to date has not targeted development assistance effectively at populations vulnerable to extremism in key geographic areas. Collaboration with CJTF-HOA is providing tangible results. USAID/Ethiopia has drafted an innovative MOU with CJTF-HOA to address key aspects of program collaboration. THE SHINN CRITERIA FOR COMBATING TERRORISM 8.(U) Results of the USAID-solicited counter-terrorism study, "Understanding and Responding to Extremism, Instability, and Terrorism in Yemen, East Africa, and the Horn of Africa (YEAH)," by former US Ambassador David Shinn were presented. The presentation provided a recap of the study, criteria for identifying vulnerable areas, indicators for measuring success, and lessons learned from the Trans Sahel Counter-Terrorism Assessment. See Reftel B (para 5) for brief description of the presentation. A copy of this presentation is available from USAID/East Africa. 9.(U) The Shinn report identified the following six main factors that leave the region vulnerable to extremism: -- Porous borders -- Fundamentalist religious ideology and extremist external influences -- Endemic poverty -- Political marginalization and economic and social alienation -- High levels of corruption -- Poor governance -- Opposition to USG policy (added by the participants) 10.(U) The participants agreed to use these criteria, along with the seventh added at the meeting, to identify key geographic areas for targeting interagency collaboration, activities, and measurements of progress. Based on the Shinn criteria, Missions will also continue/expand/modify programs that are targeting key vulnerable populations such as the Pastoralist Livelihoods Initiative in Ethiopia that focuses on the Somali region and several of USAID/Kenya's activities in the North Eastern Province including investments in health and education sectors. IDENTIFYING KEY VULNERABLE AREAS AND NEEDS 11.(SBU) Employing the Shinn criteria, participants identified the following areas as vulnerable to extremism and, therefore, focal points for 3D planning and program development/expansion (detailed notes of these discussions are available from USAID/EA): Kenya: -- Slums in Nairobi especially Eastleigh; -- North Eastern Province (Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Ijara Districts, particularly urban centers); -- Coast (Mombasa, Malindi, and Lamu and other areas along the coast and Kenya-Somalia border); -- Isiolo; -- Nairobi-Mombasa highway. Ethiopia: The discussions focused largely on the Somali region bordering Kenya and Somalia. -- Dollo; -- Ogaden (Gode and Jijiga); -- Harar; -- Dire Dawa; and -- Urban areas, including Addis Ababa and Jijiga. 12.(SBU) Somalia was discussed at length but given the current fluid situation in Somalia, further guidance from Washington is necessary before areas of strategic focus can be identified. There was consensus that Somalia remains the epicenter of the threat but all 3D's seek clarity of direction from Washington and would require additional resources and authority to be able to proceed with planning. In this regard, a recent cable (Reftel C) prioritized programming options for increased engagement, including human and financial resources necessary to implement increased engagement. 13.(SBU) Despite ongoing activities, participants acknowledged that serious gaps in understanding the specific extremist threats related to international terrorism inhibit targeted programming in many of the areas identified as critical. KEY CONCLUSIONS OF MEETING AND NEXT STEPS 14.(U) The above exercise led to the recognition of gaps in information and development program focus. Next steps include creating an interagency assessment of target areas to include risk of the extremism threat, programs to mitigate the risk and indicators to measure progress. In addition, participants also understood that despite the fact that this meeting was a significant step forward in working collaboratively, there was much more needed on developing interagency collaboration. There was a general agreement over the next three to four months to develop and finalize a planning framework and coordinating mechanisms that incorporate all 3 Ds. An example would be to develop a regional strategy drawing from bilateral strategies and draft a regional MOU coordinated by USAID/East Africa and CJTF-HOA with guidance from DOS/AF/E and affected Embassies. Bilateral MOUs are either in place or are in the process of being negotiated and would serve to inform the regional MOU. This strategy would include developing a 3D monitoring and evaluation plan following focused assessments using the Shinn criteria to develop regional and area specific programs. In addition, all agreed to ensure continuity in spite of staff rotating out of the area. Finally, participants highlighted a principle of engagement among the 3Ds - to strengthen African capacity to manage and respond to instability and extremism. TIMELINE FOR DELIVERABLES AND WAY FORWARD 15.(U) The participants agreed to move forward with priority on improved coordination and integrated planning, recognizing that strategies and programs should be coordinated and complementary on three levels: 1) Among the 3Ds elements; 2) Regional and Bi- lateral; and 3) USG and African institutions (host nation governments and regional organizations). 16.(U) Increasing interagency liaisons, personnel exchanges, and cross-training will greatly assist in coordination and improved planning and programming. The way ahead detailed below can be achieved through 1) strengthened country teams and 2) meeting as a regional 3D body every six weeks. The next regional meeting is planned for late July/early August to ensure positive momentum. 17.(U) The list of actions includes: a.Develop and agree upon a vision for an end-state for the region. To be developed at the next meeting in late July/early August and coordinated by USAID/East Africa. b.Discuss current programs and activities to develop an understanding of how these activities are mitigating g the threat of extremism and define gaps in programming and information. To be presented/prepared in draft form by each bilateral mission at the next meeting in late July/early August. c.Develop a data collection plan to assess assumptions, define needs, fill gaps in knowledge, and support a monitoring and evaluation plan. To be accomplished by late July/early August. An interagency team comprised of bi-lateral and regional staff from the 3D entities in the region will be responsible for the success of this task. d.Develop a structure to ensure continued information flow (as identified in the collection plan). To be finalized by October 30th. e.Identify roadblocks and possible solutions. This will be an ongoing process. f.Finalize a structure for ongoing planning coordination and integration with the end goal of developing an Interagency Regional Operational Plan to support coordinated bi-lateral plans such as Mission Performance Plans, Country Operational Plans, ns, and Theater Security Cooperation Plans. This step would include the development of an iterative planning process building on the above listed elements to ensure open communication and flexibility in operations. To be finalized by October 30th. USAID/East Africa will coordinate this effort with guidance from DOS/AF/E and the bilateral missions and embassies. 18.(U) While representation from Washington is vital at regional meetings, representatives from USAID/East Africa and CJTF-HOA will be identified as the key points of contact and liaison between Washington and the regional and bi-lateral field missions. A State point of contact and liaison still needs to be identified as State does not have a regional entity in the field. 19.(U) CJTF-HOA will continue to coordinate its country plans with USAID and Embassies. USAID Missions will coordinate their country operational plans with Embassies and CJTF-HOA elements. Embassies, in turn, will guide overall planning as indicated by S/F guidance forthcoming on COPs. BELLAMY