SOMALILAND'S CHARM OFFENSIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 002654 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2026 TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV PINS SO KE TZ ZA RW UG SF SUBJECT: SOMALILAND'S CHARM OFFENSIVE Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) . ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The government of the self-declared independent Republic of Somaliland has taken advantage of the downward trend of events in Somalia to step up its efforts for international recognition. A visit to Kenya appears to have produced unexpectedly positive results, opening doors for additional meetings with other African governments. If true, Kenya's newfound openness to Somaliland may be a result of fatigue with a southern entity that cannot seem to sort out its problems. Given the direction of events in Somalia, other African governments may be inclined to follow suit. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Somaliland president Dahir Rayaleh Kahin travelled to Kenya June 13 to begin a round of meetings with African governments to discuss Somaliland's status and potential for international recognition. The visit began in a low key manner. Foreign Minister Edna Adan Ismail told poloff that the Somaliland government would like to offer assistance to the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to get through this exceptionally difficult period. The only thing Somaliland was requesting in return was to be treated with respect. Ismail advised that her government was also using this trip to approach African governments, starting with Kenya and moving on to Rwanda and potentially Uganda, to try to build support for Somaliland to obtain at least observer status in the African Union. ¶3. (C) According to International Crisis Group analyst Matt Bryden, the delegation had an extensive meeting with President Kibaki on June 14. Kibaki reportedly indicated to Kahin that, unlike his ministers, he could remember the moment when Somaliland existed as a separate entity. He was apparently inclined to be helpful and suggested that the Somaliland government work through IGAD to obtain recognition. He averred that IGAD membership would only require assent from three IGAD members. IGAD membership would open the way to African Union membership, which could in turn open the door to the United Nations. For the purposes of the delegation's current travel, Kenya would contact other governments to facilitate meetings for the Somalilanders. In addition, Somaliland noted its positive relationship with South Africa, but observed that South Africa does not want to get too far out in front of other African states. According to Bryden, Kibaki agreed to contact President Mbeki and offer Kenya's support should South Africa decide to table a motion on Somaliland at the AU Summit in Banjul in July. (NOTE: Bryden said such a motion may not necessarily go straight to recommending recognition, but may suggest a process through which the AU could consider Somaliland's case. END NOTE.) Finally, Kenya would establish more links with Somaliland, starting with expanding its presence in Hargeisa and allowing for the establishment of a Somaliland liaison office in Nairobi. (COMMENT: We have not heard the Kenyan version of events, so are not able to assess whether the Somalilanders have painted an overly rosy picture. END COMMENT.) ¶4. (C) In a June 15 conversation, FM Ismail advised poloff that Tanzania and Zambia had now been added to their list of stops, and the Uganda meeting had been firmed up. Ismail's tone became considerably stronger when she again discussed the potential for Somaliland helping the TFG, saying that Somaliland would only do so if the TFG recognized it as an independent neighboring state. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: A decision to enhance its relationship with Somaliland would seem to run counter to Kenya's stated goal of providing all possible support to the TFG. However, this new generosity toward Somaliland would fit with Kenya's recent decision to ban southern warlords and freeze their assets. The Government of Kenya seems fed up with the problems that southern Somalia continues to lay at its doorstep, and may have calculated that it is time to work more closely with comparatively stable Somaliland. Given current events in Somalia, other African governments may be inclined to follow suit. END COMMENT. BELLAMY