C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 002654

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2026
TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV PINS SO KE TZ ZA RW UG SF
SUBJECT: SOMALILAND'S CHARM OFFENSIVE

Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY: The government of the self-declared
independent Republic of Somaliland has taken advantage of the
downward trend of events in Somalia to step up its efforts
for international recognition. A visit to Kenya appears to
have produced unexpectedly positive results, opening doors
for additional meetings with other African governments. If
true, Kenya's newfound openness to Somaliland may be a result
of fatigue with a southern entity that cannot seem to sort
out its problems. Given the direction of events in Somalia,
other African governments may be inclined to follow suit.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Somaliland president Dahir Rayaleh Kahin travelled to
Kenya June 13 to begin a round of meetings with African
governments to discuss Somaliland's status and potential for
international recognition. The visit began in a low key
manner. Foreign Minister Edna Adan Ismail told poloff that
the Somaliland government would like to offer assistance to
the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to get through this
exceptionally difficult period. The only thing Somaliland
was requesting in return was to be treated with respect.
Ismail advised that her government was also using this trip
to approach African governments, starting with Kenya and
moving on to Rwanda and potentially Uganda, to try to build
support for Somaliland to obtain at least observer status in
the African Union.


3. (C) According to International Crisis Group analyst Matt
Bryden, the delegation had an extensive meeting with
President Kibaki on June 14. Kibaki reportedly indicated to
Kahin that, unlike his ministers, he could remember the
moment when Somaliland existed as a separate entity. He was
apparently inclined to be helpful and suggested that the
Somaliland government work through IGAD to obtain
recognition. He averred that IGAD membership would only
require assent from three IGAD members. IGAD membership
would open the way to African Union membership, which could
in turn open the door to the United Nations. For the
purposes of the delegation's current travel, Kenya would
contact other governments to facilitate meetings for the
Somalilanders. In addition, Somaliland noted its positive
relationship with South Africa, but observed that South
Africa does not want to get too far out in front of other
African states. According to Bryden, Kibaki agreed to
contact President Mbeki and offer Kenya's support should
South Africa decide to table a motion on Somaliland at the AU
Summit in Banjul in July. (NOTE: Bryden said such a motion
may not necessarily go straight to recommending recognition,
but may suggest a process through which the AU could consider
Somaliland's case. END NOTE.) Finally, Kenya would
establish more links with Somaliland, starting with expanding
its presence in Hargeisa and allowing for the establishment
of a Somaliland liaison office in Nairobi. (COMMENT: We have
not heard the Kenyan version of events, so are not able to
assess whether the Somalilanders have painted an overly rosy
picture. END COMMENT.)


4. (C) In a June 15 conversation, FM Ismail advised poloff
that Tanzania and Zambia had now been added to their list of
stops, and the Uganda meeting had been firmed up. Ismail's
tone became considerably stronger when she again discussed
the potential for Somaliland helping the TFG, saying that
Somaliland would only do so if the TFG recognized it as an
independent neighboring state.


5. (C) COMMENT: A decision to enhance its relationship with
Somaliland would seem to run counter to Kenya's stated goal
of providing all possible support to the TFG. However, this
new generosity toward Somaliland would fit with Kenya's
recent decision to ban southern warlords and freeze their
assets. The Government of Kenya seems fed up with the
problems that southern Somalia continues to lay at its
doorstep, and may have calculated that it is time to work
more closely with comparatively stable Somaliland. Given
current events in Somalia, other African governments may be
inclined to follow suit. END COMMENT.

BELLAMY