UNCLAS NAIROBI 001850

SIPDIS

AIDAC

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS, AF/PD, EB, PRM/AF, IO
AID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, WGARVELINK, LROGERS, MHESS,
DCHA/OTI,
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, KCHANNELL
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, JDRUMMOND, TANDERSON, DNELSON,
SBRADLEY
AID/EGAT FOR AA/EGAT, JSCHAFER, JTURK
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE
ADDIS ABABA FOR TIM STUFFT
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN
ROME FOR FODAG
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER
NSC FOR JMELINE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON PHUM PREF PREL IGAD CENTCOM KE
SO, DY, ET

SUBJECT: HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN
UPDATE NUMBER 5

REF: A)STATE 27057; B)NAIROBI 00968; C)NAIROBI 01238
D) NAIROBI 01445 E)NAIROBI 01652

This is the fifth update cable in response to Ref A
request for biweekly reports on the humanitarian
situation in the Horn of Africa. USAID Missions in
Kenya and Ethiopia, REDSO (Somalia, Djibouti), and
OFDA/ECARO contributed to this report.

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RAINFALL UPDATE
--------------


1. The widespread heavy rains experienced in the
region during the first ten days, or dekad, of April
subsided in the second dekad. During the second dekad
of April, most parts of Somalia and Djibouti, northern
and eastern Kenya, and the eastern half of Ethiopia,
where most of the drought-affected populations are
found, received only light showers (from 5 to 25mm) or
remained dry. Most of these areas had received heavy
rains and experienced flash floods in the first dekad
of the month, but now seem to be facing a dry spell.
The potential consequences of this dry spell are most
serious in the eastern drought affected parts of the
region, where it could result in poor development of
pasture and agriculture.

--------------
COUNTRY REPORTS
--------------


2. KENYA

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: Heavy
downpours in the first two weeks of April displaced
farmers and destroyed crops in the lakeshore districts,
while increasing the risk of diseases, such as
pneumonia, among the livestock population. Rains
rendered some roads impassable, particularly in North

Eastern Province where the infrastructure is poor.
Consequently, the U.N. World Food Program (WFP)
reported that the April relief food distribution in the
area was delayed by two weeks. Rains have now subsided
in most areas, with light showers (5 to 25 mm) reported
in most of the drought-affected areas, allowing
scheduled food distribution to take place.

UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
Latest forecasts indicate decreased likelihood of
flooding in drought-affected areas; however, coastal
areas may continue to receive persistent heavy rains.
The long-rains have brought some immediate relief to
drought-affected pastoralist areas, mainly in terms of
water availability. However, well-distributed and
sustained rains during the season will be needed for
full development of pastures and crops in all areas.

From April 13 to 17, a USAID assessment team traveled
to drought-affected agricultural areas in Kitui
District and pastoralist areas in Garissa and Wajir
districts. In Kitui, the team reported that rains have
arrived and farmers are preparing to plant. The team



recommends continuing food security programs, such as
seed and livelihood fairs and agriculture extension
activities. In Garissa and Wajir, the team noted that
rains have arrived too late to protect pastoralist
livelihoods and continued rains and assistance are
required for full recovery. The team recommends
promoting diversification of herd composition and
animal health services to increase pastoralist
resiliency to future shocks as well as a long-term
alternative livelihood strategy. Water remains a
critical concern for both refugee and host communities
in Wajir. Boreholes that were operating on a 24-hour
basis during the drought are in need of rehabilitation
in order to mitigate further humanitarian decline if
the current rains are poor and during future droughts.

OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: Health facilities
reported an increase in malaria, measles, and some
cases of cholera in North Eastern Province,
particularly in Wajir District. Local authorities,
with assistance from international organizations such
as UNICEF, appear to have the latter two incidents
under control. With USAID/OFDA support, UNICEF and the
Kenya Ministry of Health will begin a measles
vaccination campaign on April 29, targeting 560,000
children in at-risk districts.

Local and cross-border conflicts over pasture and
cattle rustling continue unabated in Samburu, Laikipia,
and Marsabit districts. Local civil society
organizations, with the help of the affected
communities and the government, are attempting to
address the problem through dialogue and discussions.
However, longer-term solutions involving high-level
government officials of the contiguous countries will
be necessary to address the various facets of the cross
border conflicts.


3. ETHIOPIA

On April 20, Assistant Administrator of the USAID
Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian
Assistance (AA/DCHA) Michael E. Hess, departed from
Ethiopia, concluding his three-country visit to
drought-affected areas in the Horn of Africa.

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: Despite
above normal rains in many affected areas in early
April, rains have slowed or stopped during the last 10
days. Recent forecasts have been for minimal rainfall,
when more is needed. The above normal rains in early
April were torrential at times, causing flash flooding
which disrupted food distributions, destroyed homes,
and killed animals.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: USAID/OFDA continues to
prioritize activities to meet the most urgent needs in
pastoralist areas. Since the last reporting period,
USAID/OFDA has committed nearly 800,000 U.S. dollars
(USD) to International Medical Corps (IMC) for
emergency nutrition activities, including the
establishment of community-based therapeutic care (CTC)
programs in Borena Zone, Oromiya Region, and Liben and

Afder zones, Somali Region. This followed a multi-
sectoral USG assessment of Afder and Liben zones in
early April, where the team found that few nutrition
programs were currently operational and good reason to
expect that the nutritional status of children could
deteriorate further. IMC?s activities will support
approximately 183,000 beneficiaries in these critical
areas.

UPDATE ON FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
Pastoralist Livelihood Initiative (PLI) partners
continue to implement already approved emergency
response activities. Commercial off-take of animals
continues, but due to rains pastoralists are not as
willing to sell animals and lower numbers are being
purchased by traders. Partners continue to have in
place their revolving funds, as well as a credit scheme
with a private bank. This activity will last until the
end of May, 2006, unless the drought persists, in which
case it will be extended. Some PLI partners will
conduct short impact assessments of their emergency
response interventions to benefit from lessons learned.

PLI partners are starting to focus more on development
activities which were de-emphasized during the rapid
and efficient switch to an emergency response mode.
Partners are now focusing on finalizing animal feed
studies, value chain analysis, rehabilitation and
construction of livestock market infrastructure,
training and technical assistance to Community Animal
Health Workers.

The PLI Steering Committee, chaired by the State
Minister for Agriculture and including representatives
from the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development,
Afar, Somali, and Oromiya Regional Governments, the
World Bank, Tufts University, and USAID/Ethiopia, met
on Tuesday, April 18. PLI received support from all
steering committee members to start working on the
harmonization of best practice guidelines for animal
health, animal feed, and commercial off-take of animals
to be used during emergency response activities. The
Steering Committee also agreed to the formation of a
Livestock Policy Forum, which will focus on best-
practice livestock relief interventions in pastoralist
areas.

DPPA/WFP PIPELINE: As of April 24, the Government of
Ethiopia?s Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Agency
(DPPA) has reported 72 percent and 60 percent of food
allocations were dispatched for the Somali region for
February and March respectively. Reported dispatches
for the Oromiya region are higher, at 93 and 95 percent
for February and March.

Despite significant attention from the Government and
donors as well as some reported rains during March and
early April 2006, food security in southern Somali
Region and Borena Zone remains critical. Shortfalls of
cereal food aid will continue to threaten food insecure
populations, especially for the coming hunger-period
(June to August)in highland areas. Even before taking
into account recent increases in the number of people

in need of food aid from the re-assessment of needs in
pastoral areas, an estimated 75,000 MT shortfall exists
in emergency cereal food aid pledges between June and
September due to the ongoing crisis in drought affected
areas. Food aid shortfalls are expected to widen from
July onwards causing serious concern for drought
affected pastoralists.

Securing pledges for the second half of the year is
critical in order to have sufficient stocks for the
recovery phase in pastoral areas as well as to provide
the necessary carryover for the next year Jilaal (dry)
season that will begin as early as January 2007.
Historically, January is the worst month for relief
food dispatches as donors have not usually made pledges
towards the next year's emergency appeal and the
pipeline suffers a break. January 2007 will be
critical as the pastoral areas experience the start of
the dry season and any interruption in food aid support
could further exacerbate the vulnerable situation of
many expected to still be recovering from the current
drought crisis.

Save the Children USA (SC/US), funded by USAID, has
completed all February and March food transfers in Dolo
Odo and Filtu. The February and March transfers for
Dolo Abay are continuing, as transportation was
disrupted there last week because of a local holiday.
SC/US is processing a food loan from the Emergency Food
Security Reserve Administration (EFSRA) in order to
begin food transfers in five new woredas (Chereti,
Bare, Hargele, Moyale, and El Kere) in the Somali
Region before the food arrives in country from USAID.
Food transfers are expected to start in the five new
woredas in May.


4. SOMALIA

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: Rainfall
Update ? According to USAID-supported Famine Early
Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Rain Watch Report,
dated April 25, the 2006 Gu (main) rainy season has
started in most of Somalia. In southern Somalia rains
were generally well distributed and exceptionally good.
Most of the southern regions received between 30 and 75
mm with some areas receiving up to 100 mm. However, in
the northeastern and northwestern regions rains were
patchy, insufficient and were unevenly distributed.
Farmers have started planting crops, and pasture is
regenerating in most pastoral areas. Water availability
has also improved in many areas.

The Somalia Inter-Agency Logistics Cluster met on April

24. Based on feedback, areas of concern raised by non-
governmental organizations (NGOs) operating in Somalia,
include: purchase of non food items, transporter
contracting, cross border operations, tax and duty
exemption, warehousing capacity, ECHO and UNCAS flight
schedules, transport rates, availability of local
suppliers in Somalia, general security and humanitarian
access, vessel movement, among others. The U.N.
Regional Logistics Cell has set up a website at
www.logisticscluster.org which will cater to all

countries in the Horn of Africa, as well as provide
Sudan and Great Lakes country links.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: In April, U.N. agencies
received the following contributions: USD 605,000 from
Finland; USD 300,000 from Turkey; USD 851,000 from the
U.N. Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF); and USD
37,000 in from private, online donors. In addition the
U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)
raised its contribution from USD 5.2 million to USD 6
million.

FOOD PIPELINE UPDATE: From February to mid-April, a
total of 25,251 MTs of FFP Title II emergency food aid
was distributed to 1,296,818 drought-affected people in
south and central Somalia. This represents a 44
percent success in comparison to targeted levels. The
food pipeline will remain stretched and distributions
lower than planned at least through May. From June to
September the pipeline will be healthy, and barring a
major logistical barrier, planning levels of reaching
roughly 1.5 million drought-affected should be reached.

At the request of the NSC Inter-Agency Working Group
(IWG), USAID/FFP has drafted a food aid contingency
plan looking at scenarios of decreased access and
increased humanitarian need. Further information on
this document can be obtained from Nick Cox at
ncox@usaid.gov.

OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: On April 21,
Mogadishu's Islamic Courts declared jihad, or holy war,
on a militia alliance, the Alliance for the Restoration
of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT), which is widely
believed to be backed by the United States. At least
52 people were killed and hundreds displaced in
Mogadishu in March in the bloodiest fighting in years
between these two groups. Reportedly, the two sides
are repositioning forces and stockpiling weapons and
many Mogasidshu residents are convinced new hostilities
are imminent between the rival factions.

Conflicting media reports surfaced about whether or not
the U.S. Navy had agreed to patrol the Somalia
territorial waters to deter piracy. Somali Prime
Minister Ali Mohammed Gedi told the transitional
parliament that his government has permitted the U.S.
Navy to patrol the coastal waters. However, the U.S.
Navy Fifth Fleet spokesman said the U.S. Navy had no
agreement with the Somali government.

There were no reported instances of piracy or hijacking
during this reporting period. However, of immediate
concern is a pending WFP-chartered 8,400 MT shipment of
food from Mombasa, Kenya to Merka port in Somalia
departing May 5 and arriving May 7 on the ?MV Marwan
H?. The shipment is one of the largest undertaken yet
and is particularly vital for pending food
distributions. WFP notified the Coalition forces,
MARLO office in Bahrain and has requested USAID to
advocate for particular vigilance for the shipment to
ensure safe passage and offloading of the food
commodities.



5. DJIBOUTI

Michael Hess, Assistant Administrator for DCHA, was in
Djibouti 13-15 April during his trip to the Horn of
Africa assessing drought conditions. While in
Djibouti, Mr. Hess visited the Djibouti port where he
saw the offloading of US food aid, met with pastoralist
communities affected by the drought, and witnessed a
food distribution.

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: Recent
rains partially improved both vegetation and water
resources in most pastoral livelihood zones with the
exception of the Northwest pastoral livelihood zone
where no rains were reported. There is a high risk
that the upcoming hot season, with temperatures up to
40C and which is expected to start at the beginning of
May, will dry out the greening pasture and browse,
particularly in coastal areas. Water catchments in the
Northwest pastoral zone are nearly dry and pastoralists
travel more than 5 kilometers in search of water. The
coastal belt of Arta District and the highlands of
Tadjourah and Obock districts received significant
amount of rains while poor rains were observed in
Alisabieh and Dikhil districts. This mixed picture has
made forecasting of the current rainy season difficult.
Current rains reportedly killed some of the remaining
weakened animals.

UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: The
continuing rise in staple food prices is another
concern to the overall food security in both urban and
pastoral livelihoods. FEWS NET reports that dry food
gifts from urban communities to pastoralists in rural
areas has decilned. As 80 percent of food is acquired
through purchase in pastoral areas with 100 percnet in
urban zones, poor households in both urban and pastoral
cannot afford to buy 100 percnet of their food
requirements with the current high prices. The prices
of certain essential commodities like sugar have almost
doubled in pastoral zones in comparison to 2003.

Although some donors, including USAID, are providing
food aid through WFP, Kuwait Relief Agency and several
others, non-food sectors are neglected. Emergency
water interventions, for example, are urgently required
in pastoral communities in the coastal areas of Obock
and Northwest pastoral livelihood zone.

--------------
CONCLUSION
--------------


6. Satellite images in mid-April indicate some
improvement in the vegetation cover in most areas that
have received good rains; however, vegetation
improvements are marginal in northern Kenya, most of
Somalia, Djibouti and southeastern Ethiopia. Rains
have regenerated pasture and water pans for pastoralist
communities; however, continued assistance is required
as it will take time for communities to recover from
the harsh drought.


BELLAMY