HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN UPDATE

UNCLAS NAIROBI 001445

SIPDIS

AIDAC

DEPT HHS WASHDC
CDC ATLANTA GA
USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
CJTF HOA PRIORITY
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY
SIPDIS
STATE FORQE, AF/EPS, AF/PD, EB, PRM/AF, IO
AID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, WGARVELINK, LROGERS, MHESS,
DCHA/OTI,
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, KCHANNELL
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, JDRUMMOND, TANDERSON, DNELSON,
SBRADLEY
AID/EGAT FOR AA/EGAT, JSCHAFER, JTURK
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE
ADDIS ABABA FOR TIM STUFFT
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN
ROME FOR FODAG
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER
NSC FOR JMELINE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON PHUM PREF PREL IGAD CENTCOM KE SO
DY, ET

SUBJECT: HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN UPDATE
NUMBER 3

REF: A)STATE 27057; B)NAIROBI 00968; C)NAIROBI 01238


1. This is the third update cable in response to Ref A
request for biweekly reports on the humanitarian situation
in the Horn of Africa. USAID Missions in Kenya, Ethiopia,
REDSO Somalia, Djibouti, and OFDA contributed to this
report.

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FLASH REPORT
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2. Early reports from an ongoing (March 25 - April 2) REDSO
site visit to northeast Kenya - Mandera, El Wak, Wajir, and
Garissa - describe a bleak picture. Around Mandera,
livestock are essentially gone: A handful of sheep, goats,
cattle and camels dot the landscape, but even camels, known
for their resiliency to drought, are dying. The regional
Mandera livestock market, once dynamic, has collapsed.
There are increasing numbers of nomadic families, who have
lost all their animals, arriving in Mandera town in search
of food. It is the end of the road for many of these
pastoralist "drop-outs", now totally dependent on food aid.
The World Food Program (WFP) is feeding about 80 percent of
the population at 75 percent caloric needs, but even this
may not be enough. Malnutrition rates range from 21 - 30
percent in supplementary feeding centers, with large numbers
of Ethiopians, Kenyans and Somalis being cared for.
Humanitarian assistance has not yet managed to stabilize the
deteriorating situation, and more is needed. In the worst-
case scenario, famine looms. In the best case scenario that
some rains do fall, it will take years for pastoralist
livelihoods and herds to be re-established.

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COUNTRY REPORTS
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3. KENYA

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: On March 28 in
Nairobi, the Kenyan Office of the President updated a small
donor group on a Drought Contingency Fund concept and
status. A national Drought Contingency Fund, led by a
steering committee, has been established to disburse
prevention and preparedness grants to authorities of drought-
prone and affected districts within Kenya to address
recurrent droughts early on. The European Commission is
preparing to commit Euro 4.6 million to the initiative.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: USAID/OFDA has provided a total of
Dollars 2.6 million to meet non-food needs, and is in the
process of approving an additional Dollars 2.5 million for
nutrition and water interventions thQgh UNICEF and other
NGOs. On the food aid side, in FY 06 FFP has contributed
44,890 MT of food aid worth Dollars 32 million. At present,
37 percent of WFP's emergency operation (EMOP) requirement
(Dollars 225 million) has been resourced. Current
distributions contain adequate cereals, but are critically
short of pulses and oil. This will improve with a FFP
arrival in May. There are no new donor EMOP donations.

The Kenyan Red Cross Society reports that Kenyan communities
(private sector, civil society organizations and
individuals) have mobilized approximately Dollars 1.4

million cash and Dollars 355,000 in-kind relief resources in
response to the drought.

UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: Food
security in the pastoral households continues to deteriorate
precariously as the dry season reaches its peak. The World
Bank funded Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP)
reported that little or no rainfall was received in the
northeast regions that require the rains most. Watering
distances of up to 170 miles for pastoralists in Wajir and
Mandera actually necessitate migration into Somalia and
Ethiopia, however, remaining animals are not strong enough
to trek more than 15-20 miles due to their weakened body
condition.

REDSO/FFPO, Dan Suther was in Wajir on March 29, and reports
that the situation is worsening. Virtually all the animals
are gone and the few camels left are now dying. The NGO
Merlin reports global acute malnutrition rates of 29-30
percent in supplementary feeding centers. Pastoralists with
remaining animals are moving to water points, setting up
camp and waiting for food aid to arrive. Pastoralist "drop-
outs", who have nothing left are moving to urban centers.
In Mandera district, Suther reports the situation is not any
better. The major regional livestock market has collapsed.
Numbers at the water points and distribution centers in town
are increasing. Action Against Hunger (AAH) in Mandera
reports global malnutrition rates of 21 - 27 percent, with
30 percent of the children from Ethiopia, and 20 percent
from Somalia. Should the long-rains season fail to pick up
in April, few animals are likely to survive the extended dry
spell and substantial numbers of pastoralists will lose
their entire livelihood. This would add to the growing
number of pastoralist "drop-outs" that become part of the
urban poor.

From March 21 - 24, OFDA Regional Advisor Al Dwyer traveled
to the northern Kenyan district of Marsabit. Families
report that although they usually have about 100 head of
livestock on average, they are down to 20 - 30 animals due
to lack of pasture and water. Conflict has arisen between
tribes, disrupting grazing patterns and exacerbating
poverty. WFP is delivering food aid, but is short of pulses
and oil. Water trucking has begun, and more boreholes are
being dug. OFDA is supporting these efforts through UNICEF.
The 38 health clinics that OFDA Dwyer visited were
functioning well. Failure of the April - May rains will
eliminate many remaining animals, and force people into
urban centers in search of food. Local officials and
populations highlighted the fact that drought occurs at
regular intervals, but that they need developmental programs
to break the boom and bust cycle.

OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: The Kenya Aloe Working
Group (KAWG) met in Nairobi on March 29, 2006. Aloe grows
in northeast Kenya, has good commercial potential -
cosmetics and medical uses - and would provide income
diversification for pastoralists. The KAWG brings together a
large group of stakeholders and development partners
(including the GOK and the Dutch SNV),and plans to develop
an official national aloe policy, do fundraising, and
implement activities.


4. ETHIOPIA

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: Needs in the
Somali and Borena zones are increasing, and the UN has
issued the 2006 Humanitarian Appeal for Dollars 14 million.
Only Dollars 2.1 million has been received so far. USAID
participated in several GOE Disaster Preparedness and
Prevention Agency (DPPA) reassessments. In the Borena Zone
in the Oromiya region, the team's recommendation is that
beneficiary numbers be increased from 155,000 to 368,000 to
cope with worsening drought conditions. Final official
figures will be released by the DPPA. The GOE is leading
reassessments in Afder and Liben zones of the Somali region,
and the Afar region. A critical issue is identifying a
solution for many of the 435,000 beneficiaries in Afar who
have been identified to receive food assistance. Although
54,600 received emergency food assistance, the rest fell
under the Productive Safety Net Program, which,Qfortunately, has not been operational in Afar in 2006.

Therapeutic feeding programs have been hampered by a
requirement to pay duty on imported food, even though used
for humanitarian purposes. A sea change may be underway.
The Ministry of Finance and Economic Development has issued
a proclamation number to UNICEF that will now allow duty-
free entry of "plumpy nut" therapeutic food. It is hoped
that the proclamation number will apply to all donors and
NGOs, and clarification is underway.

CARE and the Government of the Oromiya Region have tankered
over 4 million liters of water to the Borena zone, primarily
for human consumption but also for livestock.

The Somali Regional Health Bureau and UNICEF have completed
Enhanced Outreach Strategy activities in 20 zones in the
Somali Region. According to UNICEF, 160,000 children
received vitamin A supplements, 137,000 children were de-
wormed, and 159,000 children were vaccinated against measles
(83 percent coverage). In addition, 48,000 children and
10,700 pregnant or lactating women were referred to DPPB for
targeted supplementary feeding.

The Pastoralist Livelihoods Initiative (PLI) response is
continuing to gain momentum. Over 140,000 head of livestock
have been de-stocked, or are in the de-stocking process. In
the Somali Region, over 470,000 animals have been
vaccinated. An additional 160,000 animals are planned to be
vaccinated in the Oromiya region. Approximately 27,000
animals in breeding herds are being maintained by PLI
partners, with additional animals planned. This intervention
includes food and sometimes water provision for these herds.
Additionally 16 animal health care workers have been trained
and deployed.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: As of March 26, 2006 DPPA has
reported 18 percent and 11 percent of food allocations were
dispatched for the Somali region for February and March
respectively. The reported dispatches for the Oromiya
region are 86 and 4 percent for February and March
respectively.

The food pipelines for CSB and cereals break in June, 2006,
and for pulses and oil at the end of December 2006. WFP
estimates an additional 250,000 MT of cereals and CSB will
be required for the second half of 2006. A small CSB
donation was made by the Italians after it was requested by
WFP, but this donation only fills the CSB pipeline through

the end of June. No other donors have made further
commitments to WFP at this time.

USAID/OFDA is supporting rapid response water and nutrition
interventions totaling Dollars 300,000. Furthermore,
USAID/OFDA has awarded grants to CHF International for water
and sanitation projects in Gode and Afder Zones of the
Somali Region, to Merlin for water and sanitation in West
Imi in Afder Zone, and to Population Services International
(PSI) to provide water treatment products and treated bed
nets to other OFDA water and nutrition partners responding
to the drought. Implementation of these projects and several
more currently under review will help fill a major gap in
the drought response thus far.

UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: FEWSNET
reports that the belg rains have been erratic and late
across Ethiopia. In the most affected regions of southeast
Ethiopia, no rains have fallen, raising concern that cattle
conditions will be as bad as they were in the 2000 severe
drought. On the other hand, the onset of good rains in the
higher altitude regions of the Oromiya region has been
reported. Browse has regenerated for camels and goats, and
pasture is showing the initial signs of recovery.


5. SOMALIA

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: On March 21 in
Nairobi, the revised UN Consolidated Appeal (CAP) for
Somalia was launched. The revised CAP seeks Dollars 326.7
million for 92 projects for the remaining of the year. At
this point, Dollars 79 million or 24 percent has been
committed against the appeal, and water and health needs
remain largely unfunded. The UN Humanitarian Coordinator
stressed that Somalia's infant, child and maternal mortality
rates are among the highest in the world; average life
expectancy is just 48 years; and primary school enrollment
rates are the lowest in the world, and appealed to the
humanitarian community to scale up its current response.

Somali political leaders including the President, Prime
Minister, and Speaker of the Parliament, joined Inter-
governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Foreign
Ministers and Heads of State in Nairobi March 18-20 for the
11th Summit of IGAD Heads of State and Government.
Discussion among the Heads of State focused on whether and
how to provide external military support to the Somali
Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs) meeting in Baidoa,
Somalia. The Summit's final communique reiterated the
principal elements set out by the UN Security Council,
leading observers to hope that IGAD will now take a back
seat to the Somali institutions in developing a National
Security Plan.

Heavy fighting broke out again in the capital March 22-26.
Forces of the members of the Alliance for the Restoration of
Peace and Fighters Against Terrorism -- ARPFAT -- have been
encircled in their strong-holds. The principal antagonist
against members of the ARPFAT in this episode of fighting,
businessman/Islamic Court financier Abucar Omar Adani (a
major shipper and distributor of food assistance for WFP),
is now in control of all areas critical to his and the
Banadir Corporation business cartel's commercial operations
out of the El Ma'an port. The members of the ARPFAT have
seen their income generating capabilities crippled, although

Adaani has stated that he has now established security over
the El Ma'an port infrastructure for the use of all Somali
business interests.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: A drought committee in Mogadishu
announced on January 30, 2006 that it had raised Dollars
165,000 in cash, 444 MT of assorted food donations, and 15
water tankers. The donations were raised through an
innovative telethon coordinated through three local
telephone companies and organized jointly by the Somali
Institute of Management and Administration Development
(SIMAD) and Radio Horn Afrik in collaboration with a wide
number of civil society representatives. Sixty percent of
contributors were from women and most donations were from
Mogadishu.

UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: FEWSNET
reports localized rains in parts of Lower Juba, Bay and
Gedo. However, while they providd some very short-term
relief, they were not enough to slow a deteriorating food
security situation, and people are resorting to their own
coping mechanisms such as reducing the number of meals,
eating wild fruits, and moving to IDP/destitute camps and
urban centers. Complete out migration to main towns for
social support and labor were also reported. There has been
an increase in the slaughtering of weak and newly born
animals. FEWSNET estimates that 80 percent of the cattle,
and 40 - 50 percent of sheep and goats have died. The
Somalia FEWSNET Representative traveled to Gedo to
investigate reports of human deaths. He estimates that 20 -
45 people died (about one-half of them children) from a
combination of malnutrition, related disease, and thirst.
The FEWSNET Representative said that most of the deaths
occurred in nomadic households who are far from roads and
villages, and likely missed food aid distributions. He also
said food aid distributions by WFP, CARE, ICRC, Muslim aid,
and the business community are in progress, although
quantities are not sufficient (he mentioned one bag of
sorghum and some oil per household) for the level of need.

OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: We understand funding has
been approved for 24 FEWSNET monitors in Somalia to collect
market and rainfall data. This is welcome news, although we
still highlight the need for supplemental funding to enhance
analysis and travel by the FEWS/Somalia office based in
Nairobi. Already, the rumor mill is churning with reports
of deaths and communities not receiving food aid. Without
the ability to separate truth from rumor, there will be
imbalances in the humanitarian response, which are likely to
lead to increased attacks on humanitarian deliveries and
further jeopardize the provision of assistance to those in
need. We request rapid consideration of FEWSNET Somalia's
request for funding to monitor the nearly Dollars 60 million
in FY 06 USG humanitarian assistance to date. It is
critical to have independent humanitarian assistance
monitoring capacity in Somalia, whether through FEWSNET or
another body.

Access is becoming more challenging for food aid agencies.
On March 21, clan fighting broke out at a WFP distribution
site outside Bualla in the Juba region killing one person.
An ICRC relief convoy was attacked in Belet Weyne, and there
was at least one casualty. Following these security
incidents, the UN Security Office has advised that
expatriate staff should stay out of the Juba Valley - the

exact area most affected by the drought where food aid is
needed.


6. DJIBOUTI

UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: Increasing
numbers of pastoralists face a high risk of dropping out of
pastoralism due to progressive erosion of their livestock
assets. Malnutrition levels from clinics and rapid
assessments are high with fatality rates exacerbated by the
poor state of health services.

DONOR RESPONSE UDPATE: WFP plans to feed up to 88,000
people in April. The humanitarian response if kept at that
level and well targeted is expected to be sufficient to
prevent the humanitarian situation from deteriorating.

UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: Recent
showers have resulted in marginal improvements in water and
pasture, and satellite images indicate some `greening'
between February and March as a result of these showers.
There have also been reports of actual rains during this
period to corroborate the satellite information. However,
these rains are considered insufficient to make any
significant improvements in the food security situation.
There have been no major increases in market prices of food
and other consumable commodities in the city. A stable
situation in the city usually has positive implications for
rural households who receive remittances from city
relatives.

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CONCLUSION
--------------


7. As this report describes, drought is deepening across
the Horn of Africa causing increasing numbers of pastoralist
"drop-outs", or those who have lost all their animals, to
become dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival.
Current humanitarian assistance, especially non-food
activities, has not been adequate to protect livelihoods.
In the best case scenario that some rains fall over the next
several months, it is unlikely they will reverse the
deteriorating food security situation and will likely cause
water borne diseases and mortality among weakened humans and
animals. Given that forecasts show a high probability of

normal to below normal rains, donors should mobilize now and
prepare for the worst. As one of the Kenya's tribal saying
goes, "Koth en chiemo' which means `Rain is food'.

BELLAMY