UNCLAS NAIROBI 001239

SIPDIS

AIDAC

DEPT HHS WASHDC
CDC ATLANTA GA
USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
CJTF HOA PRIORITY
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS, AF/PD, EB, PRM/AF, IO
AID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, WGARVELINK, LROGERS, MHESS,
DCHA/OTI,
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, KCHANNELL
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, JDRUMMOND, TANDERSON, DNELSON,
SBRADLEY
AID/EGAT FOR AA/EGAT, JSCHAFER, JTURK
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE
ADDIS ABABA FOR TIM STUFFT
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN
ROME FOR FODAG
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER
NSC FOR JMELINE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON PHUM PREF PREL IGAD CENTCOM KESO
DY, ET
SUBJECT: HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN
UPDATE NUMBER 2

REF: A) STATE 27057; B) NAIROBI 00968


1. This is the second update cable in response to Ref A
request for bi-weekly reports on the humanitarian
situation in the Horn of Africa. USAID Missions in
Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and REDSO/Somalia contributed
to this report.

REGIONAL REPORTS


2. NAIROBI-BASED REGIONAL MEETINGS


A. REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM: The 17th Greater
Horn of Africa (GHA) Climate Outlook Forum was held in
Nairobi from March 1-3, organized by the USAID-supported
Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC). The
forum brought together scientists involved in climate
prediction to develop a forecast for the March to May
2006 rainfall season in the GHA and to review its
implications. The consensus climate forecast is for an
increased likelihood of near-normal to below-normal
rainfall over the current drought affected region in the
Horn of Africa during the March to May 2006 rainy
season. The forecast is cause for serious concern,
especially in southern Somalia where there are logistics
difficulties in delivering assistance. The conclusion
of the forum is that donors must immediately begin
planning humanitarian assistance responses that are
based on another failed agriculture season.


B. REGIONAL HORN OF AFRICA MEETINGS: On March 8,
UNOCHA held a workshop in Nairobi to develop a regional

appeal for the drought in the Horn of Africa. UN, NGO,
government and donor representatives from Kenya,
Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Eritrea agreed
that it was necessary to plan not only for just the
current humanitarian emergency, but to link short term
emergency interventions with medium and longer term
plans to address the underlying causes of the crisis.
The appeal will be regional in nature and will address
two possible scenarios: 1) scenario of poor or failed
rains in the March-June rainy season; and 2) scenario of
good rains during the March-June period. The draft
appeal will be circulated among group members within the
next few weeks, and which we will forward to USAID/W.


C. VISIT OF THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM (WFP) EXECUTIVE
DIRECTOR: Mr. James Morris, the head of WFP, visited
Kenya on March 2 - 5. U.S. Ambassador William Bellamy
hosted a lunch for 15 Nairobi-based Chiefs of Mission to
catalyze attention on the current East Africa drought,
and generate international assistance. Mr. Morris
spoke movingly about the dire situation he saw in El
Wak, northeast Kenya, describing the animal carcasses
lining roads, pastoralists arriving on their last camel,
and the large numbers of destitute people now dependent
on food aid. Mr. Morris said the situation was about
"as bad as it gets" and urged the international
community to respond.


D. PASTORALIST WORKING GROUP (PWG) activities: The PWG
met with FEWSNET, donors, representatives from the
military civil affairs office on water initiatives, and
participated in UN and NGO Horn of Africa ongoing

sector-specific meetings. It has completed a concept
paper for a regional project to address root causes of
famine in the Horn of Africa.

COUNTRY REPORTS


3. KENYA

UPDATE ON HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: The enormous
detrimental effect of the two poor seasons (2005 long-
rains and short-rains) on livelihoods and household food
security suggests that households- capacity to cope has
declined pointing to growing chronic food insecurity.
Now that the recent Climate Outlook Forum has forecast
another poor season in northeast Kenya, the humanitarian
assistance community is preparing for the worst.
Another poor season in the drought-hit areas will have
catastrophic consequences on livelihoods and on
household food insecurity. In addition to the lack of
rains, limited purchasing power, political
marginalization (in the pastoralist areas), limited
livelihood options, and chronic vulnerability are
exacerbating the effects of the drought in Kenya.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: More recent non-USG pledges
include $17.4 million from the UK, $6.0 million from the
EU (ECHO) (earmarked to partially cover in-land
transport costs of GOK donated food), and $4.4 million
from Canada and $1.2 million from France. At present,
33.4% of the total EMOP food requirement (395,000 MT)
has been resourced (including the latest 22,090 MT of
USG donations being processed). The UK has also
contributed $1.12 million towards emergency nutrition
interventions led by UNICEF. To date the GOK has
provided 152,984 MT of emergency food valued at $32.5
million including their latest food contribution of
60,000 MT in response to the prevailing drought. In
addition, the GOK has provided US$27 million for
transport and associated costs, $5 million for livestock
off-take and $800,000 for water interventions in
drought-affected pastoralist districts. Beyond this,
FFP/W has allocated an additional $25 million to respond
to the food crisis in Kenya. The commodity mix for this
donation is currently being worked out by WFP/Kenya and
USAID/Kenya.

Following the short rain assessment in February, UNICEF
appealed for $6.4 million to support emergency
activities in the nutrition and health sectors.
Significant international contributions, including
$350,000 from OFDA, have subsequently followed and
UNICEF Kenya's Director reported this week that
sufficient funding is available for emergency activities
for the next three months. UNICEF, in coordination with
the GOK Ministry of Water, also appealed in February for
$18.5 million to expand emergency water interventions in
drought affected areas, including water tankering and
borehole rehabilitation. Contributions to date for
emergency water interventions total $16.5 million, and a
funding gap of $2 million remains. OFDA received a
proposal from UNICEF this week requesting an award to
fill the remaining gap. USAID/ Kenya and OFDA/ECARO
have reviewed the proposal and forwarded it to
Washington with a recommendation to support.


4. ETHIOPIA

UPDATE ON HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: A recent visit
by the Government of Ethiopia's (GOE) Deputy Prime
Minister (DPM) to Jijiga, the Somali Regional capital,
sent a loud message: the current drought emergency is a
front burner issue within the government.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) has continually pressured
the GOE's Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Agency
(DPPA) to hold regular coordination meetings with donors
and partners. So far, DPPA has not done so. UNOCHA is
planning a coordination meeting next week to fill the
void.

The Oromiya Regional Government has requested that GOE's
Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Agency (DPPA) Early
Warning Working Group (EWWG) reassess the situation in
Borena zone. The EWWG Chairperson notes that the
beneficiary estimates may be too low. The reassessment
will start on March 16, with CARE-Ethiopia, WFP, UNOCHA,
FAO and USAID participating.

On March 10, The Afar Regional Agriculture and Natural
Resources Bureau and FAO held a meeting in Semera, the
capital of Afar. Pastoralist Livelihoods Initiative
(PLI) partners, UN organizations, and local authorities
participated in the meeting to discuss the early
migration of Afar pastoralists and the growing concern
of a worsening drought situation in other parts of Afar
Region. The participants did not agree on a drought
response plan; however, joint NGO-Regional Disaster
Preparedness and Prevention Bureau field assessments
will be undertaken in the next 2 weeks.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: In general, there have been few
new commitments since previous Ref B. UN Secretary
General Kofi Annan launched the Central Emergency
Response Fund (CERF) on March 9. The fund seeks to
obtain rapid assistance for the humanitarian crisis and
to respond to neglected emergencies. $1.8 million
contribution from the CERF to Ethiopia has been
allocated to the various UN organizations with $630,000
going to UNICEF, $350,000 to WHO, and $400,000 to FAO.
Of the large donors, the European Union has not yet made
a commitment to the GOE's 2006 Humanitarian Appeal.
Norway, Oxfam International, and Turkey made the most
recent commitment of USD 700,000 to the water and
sanitation request.

WFP PIPELINE AND DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: The once
positive pipeline outlook for 2006 has quickly vanished
as the food needs for the second half of the year become
apparent. The wheat pipeline will now break at the end
of June with beneficiary numbers expected to increase
substantially in the second half of the year indicating
a need for an additional 200,000 MT of food from July-
December of 2006. The additional food requirements
include the predicted needs in pastoral areas from July-
December, which were not reflected in the original GOE
humanitarian appeal document. In addition, there
continues to be a need for additional supplementary food
for blanket distributions for the Productive Safety Net
Program in chronically food insecure Woredas.


Additional contributions towards the WFP PRRO includes
EURO 1 million from Italy for local purchase of FAMIX
and a pending EURO 8 million donation from the EU, which
WFP will likely borrow against until the pledge is
finalized in late summer 2006.

UPDATES ON FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: Drought
conditions are worsening in existing hot spot zones and
spreading to new zones. According to field level
information and the National Meteorological Agency
(NMA), rainfall has started (though late by one month)
in the main belg crop dependent areas but it is too
early to judge performance at this time. The
pastoralist Borena and Guji zones of the Oromiya region
have also received some showers, which has given some
false hope as these few showers are not sufficient to
mitigate the current drought conditions. The majority
of Somali Region has not yet received rains in March,
except for some showers reported in Jijiga. The NMA
outlook shows that there is a possibility of rain around
March 20 in these areas. Even if we assume that there
will be rains, these areas need much more time for
recovery. Previous experience shows that rain after
very long dry spells can actually cause deaths of
livestock as animals in a weakened state are more
susceptible to disease and can be compromised by too
much water intake and by eating unmatured pasture.

The Pastoralist Livelihoods Initiative (PLI) partners
continue to implement livestock emergency response and
non-emergency activities. For the emergency response
through May 2006, they plan to commercially off-take
134,000 animals, vaccinate 163,000 animals, and feed
around 20,000 animals.

The arrival of food at distribution sites is still a
concern and efforts are underway to improve distribution
information through increased monitoring and through a
newly developed detailed logistics spreadsheet
indicating delivery dates and locations. A WFP-led
assessment into Liban and Afder zones of the Somali
Region found that distributions have increased in most
Woredas, which is a positive sign. Unfortunately,
beneficiaries have also increased in these hot spot
areas. DPPA continues to work with the Ministry of
Defense to increase the number of military escorts
accompanying food aid deliveries.

OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: Cereal prices had
shown some signs of declines at the beginning of
February creating some hope that market related
interventions (government release of grain and the GOE?s
grain export ban) would decrease prices in a sustainable
manner. However, prices continued to increase after
some signs of stability after the first fifteen days of
February. So, despite the interventions and the very
high GOE crop yield report, the supply of grain
continues to be very tight and prices continue to
increase.


5. SOMALIA

UPDATE ON HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: Increased
population movements have been reported for the last two

weeks in southern Somalia. The movements are mainly
towards permanent water sources. For instance, more
people have moved from Bay Region to Middle Juba.
Population movements were also reported from within Bay
Region, Lower Shabelle and Bakool to Baidoa town. The
Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Baidoa
tends to attract more people who are looking for
employment and social support. Limited cross border
population movements into Kenya were also reported in
Juba valley and the Gedo regions. Increased livestock
death especially cattle has been reported in Gedo and
parts of Juba valley. This is mainly due to the
distance between watering points and grazing area,
coupled with weakened body condition. Water trucking
and borehole repair are underway across southern
Somalia. Agencies are expected to sign onto common
guiding principles for water trucking, which are being
drafted.

DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: ECHO has provided 9 million EURO
for country-wide emergency programs in Somalia this
fiscal year and has earmarked another 2 million Euro
from their Regional Drought Emergency Fund for drought
specific interventions. Further funding is dependent on
the outcome of the next rainy season. OFDA is currently
processing proposals from several new and current
implementing partners in southern Somalia for drought
specific activities in middle Juba, and Bakool Region.
On food aid for FY 06, the USG has allocated $53 million
for CARE and WFP. The UK, Italy and Canada are other
major food aid donors. The WFP pipeline is 80%
resourced through July 2006. If the rains are poor, it
is estimated that up to 100,000 MT will be required from
July through December 2006.

UPDATE ON FOOD SECURITY AND OUTLOOK: Based on early
predictions for the upcoming GU rainy season (April-
June), the FSAU has issued warning that parts of
Southern Somalia are at high risk of famine/humanitarian
catastrophe from July to December 2006. The FSAU
together with FEWS/NET are asking all stakeholders to
prepare for a worst-case humanitarian and livelihood
scenario in southern Somalia. In northern and central
region, on-going acute food and livelihood crisis are
likely to continue, impeding recovery from the previous
drought two years ago. There are reports of high human
mortality during the first two weeks of March in Gedo
region. Staff from the FEWSNET Somalia office will be
traveling this week to verify. At risk for famine
populations are estimated to increase from the current
900,000 to 1.3 million.

OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: Generally cereal
prices continue to increase, while livestock prices
decline. Due to shortages, sorghum prices increased
throughout southern Somalia by 19%. Agro pastoral and
pastoral households in the south are squeezed between
increased cereal prices and decreased livestock prices.
Consequently, terms of trade between goats and local
cereals have dropped by 5%.


6. DJIBOUTI

UPDATES ON HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: The
Djiboutian government has distributed several weeks

worth of food aid to vulnerable drought affected
Djiboutians.

DONOR RESPONSE UDPATE: The WFP pipeline is about 65%
resourced, including $1 million from the USG, and
$600,000 from the Netherlands.

UPDATE ON FOOD SECURITY AND OUTLOOK: Successive
rainfall failures and subsequent food insecurity have
eroded livestock asset holdings as a result of mortality
and distress sales. There is a decline in livestock
prices due to their deteriorating body condition and a
rise in food prices by up to 25-30% which is causing a
worsening of pastoral household purchasing power.
Livestock concentration around water points is resulting
in a high incidence of water borne diseases. In Jan/Feb
47,500 persons are on WFP's emergency food assistance at
full ration and the numbers are rising. An increase in
the number of drought victims by 40% is expected in the
coming months, while the number of people at risk of
serious food insecurity may be as high as 150,000.

CONCLUSION


7. Overall, the food security situation is
deteriorating in Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti.
The number of food aid insecure people is rising, and
food aid and non-food aid needs are increasing. The
Regional Climate Outlook Forum recently issued forecasts
that suggest there will be an average to poor long rains
season (March - May) in the pastoralist Horn of Africa
zone. Food pipelines are weak, and will break over the
summer unless more donor contributions are received.
The Somalia situation is particularly grave, with famine
conditions already being predicted from July - December
2006, and with ongoing logistics constraints affecting
food of delivery. As the drought worsens, the potential
for conflict will increase. Host governments,
humanitarian organizations and donors need to mobilize
additional resources to mitigate the consequences of the
drought. ROWE