IMMEDIATE RESPONSE NEEDED TO ADDRESS EAST AFRICA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001008

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

FOR A/S FRAZER AND USAID ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR PIERSON
FROM AMBASSADOR BELLAMY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ETRD ECON EAGR SENV PREL PGOV SOCI KE
SUBJECT: IMMEDIATE RESPONSE NEEDED TO ADDRESS EAST AFRICA
FAMINE


Sensitive-but-unclassified. Not for release outside USG
channels.


1. (SBU) On March 5, I hosted a lunch for 15 Nairobi-based
Chiefs of Mission in honor of visiting World Food Program
Executive Director James T. Morris. The reason I was
willing to press the other COMs to give up their Sunday
afternoon was this Mission's growing concern about the
unfolding human tragedy in East Africa due to drought and
the insufficient international response to the region's
emergency food needs. Morris told the gathering that his
conclusion from his 11 day tour of East Africa, is that the
current situation is "as bad as it gets."


2. (U) I summarized the current estimates, which show more
than 11 million people in the region need food assistance
within the next 12 months, including 3.5 million or more in
Kenya. A recent multi-agency assessment found that
approximately 395,000 MT of emergency food valued at $221.5
million will be required to meet relief food needs of
Kenya's drought-affected population through March 2007.
The assessment also identified $21.7 worth of non-food
assistance needed within the same timeframe.


3. (U) I also noted my alarm that to date the
international community's response has been seriously
insufficient. WFP estimates that the current food
commodity pipeline will run dry shortly after April, and
non-cereal food items will be exhausted even before that.


4. (SBU) At the lunch, I briefly highlighted the U.S.
response, which has been very important, amounting to
approximately $35 million worth of food and non-food
contributions since the beginning of calendar year 2006.
However, I strongly feel the U.S. needs to do more, both in
our contribution and in our efforts to solicit a timely and
robust response from other donors.


5. (SBU) I expect that a number of donors will soon be
announcing new or additional pledges for the East African
Emergency Operations (EMOP),but these will likely be
insufficient. Timely announcements are critical, however.
WFP informed me that it is able to use current pledges,
even if actually delivery will be delayed some months, to
trade for other available food in the regions and fill
immediate needs.


6. (U) There is also a need for early pledges of new
financial contributions. According to WFP, approximately
$13 million is required to cover associated costs of
distributing the 60,000 MT of food pledged by the Kenyan
Government. Therefore, almost all of current donor cash
pledges will be used to cover the associated costs of
distributing food in March and April, leaving virtually no
emergency funds (cash or in-kind) for May and beyond.


7. (SBU) The situation is more complicated in Southern
Somalia, where 1.7 million people or more are facing severe
food shortages. During Sunday's lunch, Executive Director
Morris noted the additional costs that go along with the
Somali relief effort, including transporting most
assistance overland through Kenya due to piracy threats off
the Somali coast. He noted that WFP's major partners in
Somalia, Care and the Red Cross, face additional expenses
for security. The U.S. has contributed $53 million in food
aid to WFP and CARE, or 65% of overall needs. Other donors
need to step up to the plate. Without an immediate
response from the international community, I believe there
is a serious risk of a massive migration of Somalis into
Kenya and Ethiopia in search of food, likely leading to
increased clan violence.


8. (U) I encourage you to keep the East Africa food crisis
at the top of Washington's agenda. It is important that
additional U.S. resources are found to address this
situation. Washington should also be at the forefront of
encouraging timely and generous contributions from the
other donors. We also have to keep in mind that the impact
of the current drought is long-term, as failed crops and
dying livestock destroy livelihoods and eliminate meager
savings for millions.


9. (SBU) Discussions regarding the emergency appeal and
the impacts on communities are a good opportunity to remind
other donors that much of the chronic nature of Kenya's
food emergency has its roots in the GOK's insufficient
efforts to implement effective rural development
strategies. In Nairobi, donors are pressing the GOK on
just this point, but reinforcement from capitals would be
most welcome. Our own development assistance to Kenya also
needs to focus on breaking this cycle of hunger.

BELLAMY