OKINAWA'S NEXT GOVERNOR: POSSIBLE CANDIDATES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NAHA 000096 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MARR PREL JA SUBJECT: OKINAWA'S NEXT GOVERNOR: POSSIBLE CANDIDATES ¶1. (SBU) Introduction: In the following discussion of possible candidates for governor in this November's gubernatorial election, it is worth noting that Okinawa, unlike Japan as a whole, has had a functioning two-party system since reversion in ¶1972. Since that time, Okinawa has seen the fortunes of the conservatives and "reformists" (as the group of left-of-center parties is known) rise and fall. Since election of the first governor in 1968, three reformists and two conservatives have held the post. Although major issues and big personalities can have a significant impact on candidates' electoral fortunes, the one certainty about Okinawan politics is that the two parties do tend to trade roles as the majority and minority. With the conservatives under Governor Inamine having been in the majority now since 1998, many of our contacts suggest (either fearfully or enthusiastically, depending on their views) that this autumn the political pendulum will again swing the reformists' way and result in them capturing the governorship, setting up further reformist victories in elections in Ginowan city in 2007 and the prefectural assembly in 2008. Given that the reformists have been quite consistent in uncompromisingly rejecting relocation of Futenma Air Station within Okinawa, the result of this November's election is obviously of more than passing interest to the USG. End introduction. ¶2. (U) Summary. Okinawan media and political leaders have already begun handicapping potential candidates for this November's gubernatorial election. Neither the conservatives nor reformists yet have a clear front-runner. Incumbent Governor Keiichi Inamine has not officially stated whether he will seek a third term, but gives every indication that he will not. Whoever the candidates are, it is safe to predict that relocation of Futenma will be a central issue in this autumn's campaign. End Summary. Preview of Governor's Race-Conservative Camp ¶3. (SBU) Although he has not announced officially whether he will run for for a third term this November, Governor Inamine has told ConGen on numerous occasions that he has no intention of running again; he has made similar unambiguous declarations to conservative lawmakers in Okinawa. Nevertheless, a few conservatives have recently expressed interest in a third Inamine term, calling him the conservatives' best choice out of a likely field of uninspiring choices this November. LDP advisor Professor Tsuneo Oshiro noted that while he didn't think Inamine would run again, he believed he would win if he did; Oshiro noted that in the last gubernatorial election, Inamine won in every voting block in the prefecture. In the upcoming election, Inamine would be in a particularly strong position if he chose to run, thought Oshiro: most conservatives would feel compelled to back him if he ran again, and many reformist-inclined voters might vote for the governor because of his opposition to the "coastal Schwab" plan for Futenma. Hiroshi Goya, acting president of the independent-reformist Sozo political group, told Polmil officer that Inamine was likely to stay on because the conservatives did not have a stronger candidate, a comment echoed by reformist Professor Masaaki Gabe. NAHA 00000096 002 OF 005 ¶4. (SBU) With Inamine's intentions unclear, speculation on other possible conservative candidates has been underway since January, running the gamut from big name players to wildly speculative dark horses. The top name currently is Okinawa Electric Company Chairman Hirokazu Nakaima. LDP Okinawa Executive Director Nakamatsu told Polmil officer that the conservative camp's kingmaker, Kanehide group chairman Hideno Goya, personally backed Nakaima because he found Nakaima to be a person "who would say what needed to be said for the sake of the people." ¶5. (SBU) While Nakaima was said to be very interested in running, Nakamatsu admitted he did not have much public appeal. He also lacked full support within critical business and economic circles. Nakamatsu said the LDP had sounded out party supporters in early February about whom they would like to stand for governor. Influential construction company President Yukikazu Kokuba said that he thought Nakaima was the best because "he did what he said he would do," calling him the "Okinawan version of Koizumi." Yoshiyama Seian, Chairman of the Small-Medium Business Federation, told Nakamatsu and other LDP officials that he did not support Nakaima because of his "private problems," probably an allusion to Nakaima's reported penchant for womanizing and consumption of alcohol. Professor Oshiro noted another potential problem was that Nakaima and Inamine did not get along personally, which would make party unity during the campaign more problematic. Relations between the two have been strained since Nakaima publicly criticized Inamine at an LDP New Year's party in January for refusing to accept the US-GOJ defense realignment agreement's requirement for Futenma relocation, saying Inamine was risking the vital Tokyo-Okinawa economic pipeline. ¶6. (SBU) The Okinawan media have also mentioned Vice-Governor Noriaki Kakazu, National Diet member Kozaburo Nishime, and Urasoe Mayor Mitsuo Gima as potential conservative candidates. Our contacts generally assess that Kakazu, while popular and thought to be honest, is not seen as a good politician because he tries to please everyone. The LDP's Nakamatsu flatly told Polmil officer that Kakazu did not have the leadership skills to be governor, although he enjoys good relations with national-level LDP politicians. Diet member Nishime, though well respected both inside and outside Okinawa, is unlikely to run. According to Nakamatsu, Nishime would not risk his safe seat in the Diet in an uncertain attempt to become governor. Mayor Gima is viewed as somewhat of a dark horse, but has significant strengths, according to our interlocutors. Gima has a sterling political reputation as a middle-of-the-road conservative; is a popular mayor of a major city; and has significant ties with centrist and non-affiliated political groups, most notably "Sozo," the creation of energetic independent Diet member Mikio Shimoji. Shimoji has told ConGen he is looking for a candidate his group could support, and recently a Sozo member told pol-mil officer that Gima was high on Shimoji's list. Gima's non-ideological, flexible attitude toward US military bases would undoubtedly appeal to many conservative voters. NAHA 00000096 003 OF 005 The Reformist Camp: ¶7. (SBU) Within the "reformist" coalition, no name has yet emerged as a likely contender. Among the possible candidates, the most frequently mentioned name is Okinawan Socialist Masses Party (OSMP) upper house Diet member Keiko Itokazu. Governor Inamine recently told ConGen he thought Itokazu would be the strongest possible reformist candidate, although he had no idea if she wanted to run. In ConGen's observation, Itokazu is an impressive, relentless debater, particularly on military base issues. There is some trepidation within the Okinawan LDP about the prospect of facing an Itokazu candidacy; party executive director Nakamatsu told us recently that if the race were between Itokazu and Nakaima, Nakaima would lose. ¶8. (SBU) Some interlocutors doubt that Itokazu would risk her Diet seat for a shot at the governorship. Reformist Okinawa City mayoral candidate and former national Diet member Mitsuko Tomon told Polmil chief that Itokazu was unlikely to try for governor because the Diet was "perfect for her." Tomon noted that Diet members get good salaries, get to live in Tokyo and are not responsible for actually making things happen in the way a governor or mayor would be. ¶9. (SBU) The LDP's Nakamatsu speculated that if Tomon won the April 23 Okinawa City election, reformists might push Itokazu to run as part of a "trend for women candidates." Sozo Acting President Goya said that even if Itokazu didn't want to run, she would have to if her supporters insisted. Ryukyu University Professor Oshiro agreed, saying reformists wanted the governor's seat more than they wanted a Diet seat. They would insist if they believed Itokazu had the best chance of winning. Komeito Okinawa City Assemblyman Esu noted that with almost half of Okinawa City's voters being women, female candidates were perceived as having the advantage in elections because they could convincingly push childcare and education issues. Still, the reformist camp has not coalesced behind her (or anyone else). Reformist Professor Gabe described Itokazu as a "single issue protestor." He argued that she was not well rounded, being strong only on anti-base and military issues. ¶10. (SBU) Other potential reformist candidates occasionally mentioned include Ginowan City Mayor Yoichi Iha, and lower house Diet member Teruya Kantoku. Professor Gabe thought that while Iha was very ambitious and interested in running for governor, he was too junior, as he had only won one election. Most of our contacts believe Iha has neither the breadth nor depth on Okinawa-wide issues to run, nor the necessary ties to Tokyo; many add that his election as Ginowan City mayor in 2003 was due mainly to two conservative candidates splitting the vote. Almost no one takes seriously the possibility of a Teruya candidacy, since the veteran lawmaker has been in visibly poor health since suffering a stroke in early 2005. Others ¶11. (SBU) Independent Diet member Mikio Shimoji leads the pack NAHA 00000096 004 OF 005 of possible independent candidates. Described by Governor Inamine as "the most active politician in Okinawa," Shimoji frequently appears on national TV and has strong ties among many younger, centrist politicians in Okinawa, chiefly among various city council members. Were he to run, Shimoji would probably face the united opposition of the Okinawa LDP, which has been furious with Shimoji since he openly (and unsuccessfully) backed the reformist candidate for mayor in Naha in 2004; Shimoji and the LDP formally parted ways last year. People close to Shimoji have told ConGen he is unlikely to run because his victory in the September 2005 Diet race was close and he would not risk another race so soon. Sozo acting president Goya told Polmil officer he thought Shimoji owed it to his supporters to stay in the Diet. ¶12. (SBU) Former Hosei University professor Minoru Higa has been (rarely) mentioned by a few observers. Unlike most other possible candidates, Higa seems ready to run; he has already begun his campaign, sending sound trucks through the streets months ahead of the official campaign season. However, few give him good odds on winning. Higa is said to have a good personality but weak leadership skills. Higa apparently is realistic about his chances, letting some of his supporters know that if Urasoe mayor Gima decides to run for governor, Higa will switch his efforts to try to replace Gima. Municipal Race a Bellwether for the Prefectural Race? ¶13. (SBU) Over the past thirty years, local political lore has asserted that the party which wins the Okinawa City mayoral election will almost certainly win the gubernatorial election later that year; in fact, this truism is generally accurate. As a result, attention in Okinawa has been focused heavily in recent weeks on the upcoming April 23 Okinawa City election, which pits former Upper House member Mitsuko Tomon (reformist) against conservative Sachio Kuwae, son of former Okinawa City mayor Choko Kuwae. At this point, most observers believe Kuwae's chances of victory are poor, saying he has three strikes against him - low name recognition, lack of support from Komeito, and lack of campaign funds. Kuwae's opponent, Socialist Democratic Party member Tomon, is a very strong candidate because of her political experience and resulting name recognition. Tomon has told us she is fighting the campaign of her political life, and that if she wins she hopes to become the reformists' candidate for the 2010 gubernatorial election. ¶14. (SBU) Because Governor Inamine is convinced the results of the Okinawa City election will be widely perceived as a forecast of the likely gubernatorial election result in November, he has decided to hold off announcing his intentions until after the new mayor takes office. The LDP's Nakamatsu told us the party could not afford to wait much beyond that because it would need to begin campaigning. He said that until Inamine announced that he would not seek a third term, the party's hands were tied and that he hoped Inamine would make a decision sometime in May. Futenma Relocation to be a Hot Issue in November NAHA 00000096 005 OF 005 ¶15. (SBU) Regardless of who the two candidates are in November, Futenma relocation within Okinawa is guaranteed to be one of the main issues in the campaign. The reformist candidate can be safely predicted to oppose relocation within Okinawa (this has been the consistent position of reformist candidates since the 1996 SACO agreement). The conservative candidate's statements will be examined minutely by the reformist media for signs of flexibility on relocation, with such signs invariably portrayed by the media as indications of weakness and unjustified accommodation with a central government intent on ignoring the wishes of the Okinawan people. Former Governor Masahide Ota's refusal to agree to relocation was the key issue in the 1998 election that saw his defeat by Keiichi Inamine; in that year, most Okinawans had grown weary of Ota's eight years of ideologically-motivated attacks on the US-Japan alliance, and were worried that four more years of the same could jeopardize the vital "pipeline" of GOJ subsidies to Okinawa. What the mood of the electorate will be in November is unpredictable, but so far we have seen little reason (notwithstanding recent local media polls asserting a strong majority of Okinawans disagrees with Futenma relocation within the prefecture) that the electorate will not be realistic and flexible toward military base issues this year. REICH