OKINAWA GOVERNOR'S RACE VERY CLOSE, BUT WINDS SHIFTING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000241

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2031
TAGS: JA PREL MARR
SUBJECT: OKINAWA GOVERNOR'S RACE VERY CLOSE, BUT WINDS SHIFTING TO
CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE NAKAIMA


CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, American
Consulate General Naha, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) With just three days left until the November 19 Okinawa
gubernatorial election, all the media in Okinawa and both
campaign camps still say they see the race as too close to call.
Nevertheless, we are willing to go out on a limb and predict a
narrow victory by the conservative candidate Hirokazu NAKAIMA.
The most recent polls from last weekend showed the two
candidates still neck and neck, with up to 30 percent of voters
still undecided. But the Okinawa construction and other
industry groups have become very active later in the week in
get-out-the-vote campaigns in support of Nakaima. The junior
ruling party Komeito also now is actively doing the same, with
full support from its rank and file. The same polls showed that
only 20 percent of voters see "the base problem" as the main
issue in the campaign, even though anti-base and
reformist-backed candidate Keiko ITOKAZU has tried to make this
the focus of the election. Labor unions, traditionally a
bedrock of support for the reformists, are lukewarm, with some
telling their members to vote their own conscience.


2. (C) In our view, even though the election remains extremely
close, the winds have shifted in Nakaima's favor, as most voters
are citing bread and butter issues such as the need for economic
development, Okinawa's high unemployment rate, and worries about
pensions and welfare issues as their main concern. These are
areas of strength for Nakaima, given his background as a former
MITI official, Chairman of the Okinawa Chamber of Commerce, and
Chairman of the Okinawa Electric Power Company. Itokazu on the
other hand has become a one-issue anti-base candidate seen by
many as having little to say or to offer on these issues. She
is, however, a stronger candidate if the floating voters turn
the election into a beauty contest, since she is much more
photogenic, charming, and personable than is Nakaima, even in
the eyes of his conservative supporters.


3. (C) In terms of the election's impact on U.S. policy, we note
that the Governor of Okinawa has little direct role in Japan's
security policy, which is decided in Tokyo. Nevertheless, a
victory by Itokazu would entail four years of shrill antagonism
to our base presence in general and in particular to the
Alliance Transformation and Alliance (ATARA) initiatives agreed
by our two governments at the October 29, 2005 Security
Consultative Committee. Throughout her career as a peace bus
guide, in the Prefectural Assembly, and more recently as a
national Dietmember, Itokazu has consistently opposed the
U.S.-Japan security alliance and the Security Treaty, and the
presence of U.S. bases in Okinawa. Instead of supporting
military forces, she says, Japan simply should sign a peace
treaty with the other nations of Asia. Her platform calls for
removing all U.S. bases from Okinawa by 2014, and she says she
absolutely rejects the plan to relocate Marine Corps Air Station
Futenma within Okinawa. At the same time, she stresses that she
would see her election to Governor as a referendum on the

NAHA 00000241 002 OF 003


Futenma relocation and the overall presence of U.S. bases in the
prefecture.


4. (C) But even if Itokazu were to win on Sunday, we should not
see that as a crisis for our base presence in Okinawa, nor as
the end of our realignment plans. We have had reformist
Governors in Okinawa before, and although they can be a thorn in
our side, they have little actual authority with respect to base
issues. Local mayors have told us that they simply ignore the
governor's office when they have issues involving the military
bases, and they instead go directly to Tokyo, since they know
the Governor's office has no real role other than that of
influencing public opinion when it comes to our base presence.
The one important exception to this is the legal requirement
that the Governor approve permits necessary for landfill work in
water areas, needed as part of the MCAS Futenma relocation.
But even in this case, we note that the Government of Japan has
told us consistently during the realignment discussions the past
year that it would pass special legislation to remove that
authority from the Governor in the event the Governor could not
be persuaded to sign those permits. We expect this special
legislation would be needed under an Itokazu administration.


5. (C) Just as there would not be a crisis under Itokazu, we
should not expect all to be rosy under Nakaima. As a
conservative backed by the LDP and Komeito, Nakaima is a
supporter of the U.S.-Japan alliance, and publicly accepts the
need for a U.S. base presence in Okinawa, although he has said
he feels Okinawa bears too large of a burden as compared to the
rest of Japan. But sounding like current conservative Governor
Keiichi INAMINE, during the campaign Nakaima has opposed the
current plan of the two governments to relocate MCAS Futenma to
a V-shaped runway to be built at Camp Schwab. Nakaima has said
that his main objection to the V-plan is that it was decided
with too little input from Okinawa. Although he had told us
privately before the election campaign officially began that he
would, if elected, accept the Futenma relocation plan in some
shape, but that he could not publicly accept it as a candidate,
it remains to be seen how he will reconcile this with his public
opposition if elected.


6. (C) He has maintained some flexibility to come around to
supporting the Futenma relocation plan by stating that once
elected he intends to consider the views of the intended hosts,
the northern communities in Nago surrounding Camp Schwab who
have accepted the relocation. He also has affirmed his
intention to participate in GOJ-OPG-municipal consultations
about the Futenma plan and the economic promotion measures the
central government has tied to the relocation.


7. (C) In what could be a more troubling initiative, Nakaima has
called for the "elimination of the danger" of MCAS Futenma
within three years, even though the aggressive schedule in the
relocation plan aims at moving Futenma not until 2014 once the
new facility is completed. Nakaima's call for "eliminating the
danger" within three years sounds very much like Governor
Inamine's call for a "temporary heliport" to be built so Futenma
can be closed earlier, a proposal which both governments have

NAHA 00000241 003 OF 003


studied and repeatedly rejected as unworkable for operational
and other reasons. Nakaima has offered no specifics on how the
danger at Futenma could be eliminated within three years, but
only says that there must be "some way" that this could be done.



8. (C) Despite these campaign statements by Nakaima, clearly he
would be a better governor in terms of U.S. interests in
Okinawa, and also better for Okinawa in terms of the
prefecture's economic development and its relations with Tokyo.
Our assessment of Nakaima is that he would be a pragmatist with
whom we could develop a good working relationship.


9. (C) Whichever candidate wins the November 19 election, we
think we will need to continue to press the GOJ to stick to our
agreed ATARA transformation and realignment plans and schedules.
With respect to Okinawa, our recommendation is that in public
statements we note that we respect the democratic process in
Okinawa, congratulate the new Governor, note that our two
governments have agreed on a transformation and realignment plan
that will be very good for Okinawa when implemented, state that
we expect the Government of Japan to continue on its steady
course of implementing that plan, and that we hope for the
cooperation of the new Governor in that implementation.
MAHER