OKINAWA GUBERNATORIAL CAMPAIGN: POSTER SPOT REPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000238 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/8/2031 TAGS: MARR JA KN SUBJECT: OKINAWA GUBERNATORIAL CAMPAIGN: POSTER SPOT REPORT NAHA 00000238 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, U.S. Consulate General Naha, U.S. Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (d),(g) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Okinawa Prefecture gubernatorial race remains too close to call, and the two major candidates are engaged in a technically illegal unofficial poster campaign. The reformist parties backing the woman running as their unified candidate seem torn between self-promotion and getting her elected. The conservative candidate, meanwhile, is attempting to simultaneously soften his image and present himself as the tough alternative to an inexperienced opponent. Pending large-scale polling over the weekend before the November 19 election, the signs provide a graphic glimpse into campaign tactics. End summary. ¶2. (U) A short analytical piece in the November 6 Ryukyu Shimpo reported the three Okinawa gubernatorial candidates were rushing to register and affix their official posters to the 2,370 campaign boards erected around the prefecture. An election official reportedly commented that failing to post one's own photo before or as soon as one's opponents could be interpreted as a lack of interest in, or support for, one's own candidacy. ¶3. (SBU) We have, in fact, noticed that all three candidates are taking care to post their faces on the official campaign boards. The reformist parties' unified candidate, National Upper House Diet Member (Okinawa Socialist Masses Party) Keiko ITOKAZU, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito coalition candidate Hirokazu NAKAIMA, and dark horse Okinawa Independence Party candidate Chosuke Yara have standard "head shots" on most of the official boards. The election law prohibits the candidates from posting campaign material anywhere other than the official campaign boards. Nevertheless, the unofficial (and technically illegal) poster campaign between the two major candidates is heated and entertaining. Reformists' Chilly Embrace ¶4. (SBU) Unofficial posters of the parties backing Itokazu sometimes make no reference to her-or even Okinawa. The starkest example is the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) "Nihon wo Kaeru" (Change Japan) poster, which features head shots of national figures Yukio HATOYAMA, Ichiro OZAWA and Naoto KAN. Nothing on the poster mentions Okinawa or Itozaku, even indirectly. Compared to the DPJ, Sozo posters featuring a 3/4-length photo of National Diet Member Mikio SHIMOJI, his arms raised in victory, seem more supportive of Itokazu. The poster's text starts, "A Woman Governor," and concludes with NAHA 00000238 002.2 OF 003 Sozo's own party slogan, "Okinawa Decides Okinawa's Future." The Sozo posters have been hit by competing graffiti. Conservative graffiti, apparently benefiting from inside information, are stickers in an identical typeface so the posters read, "A Man Governor, Okinawa Decides Okinawa's Future." Reformist graffiti, pink stickers that just cover the conservative graffiti and/or the original text, change the object to "Governor Keiko." ¶5. (SBU) Posters sponsored by "K no Kai" (K's Club) more directly endorse Itokazu, but do not show her solo. One unofficial poster carrying Itokazu's name and photograph depict her and her husband posed as if running through a field of grass. Another depicts Itokazu and reformist Okinawa City Mayor Mitsuko TOMON, calling for women's unity, but Itokazu's and Tomon's (heavily retouched) photographs were clearly taken at different times and assembled in a collage. Conservative Cuddly with a Mean Streak ¶6. (SBU) The counterpart to "K no Kai" is "N no Kai" (N's Club),and its posters for Nakaima generally show him with one or both of his adult daughters. A journalist told us that initial posters showing Nakaima with just his second (and younger) daughter, identifying her as such, had started a whisper campaign. "Old ladies" were muttering that the elder daughter must dislike her father, otherwise she would have been featured. The campaign recently changed the posters so that the younger daughter is merely identified as "daughter," and added a poster featuring both daughters. A poster sponsored by the "Prefectural Peoples' Club" features a cartoon shisa in a suit, smiling and punching one fist in the air. Note: The shisa is an Okinawa icon, statues of which are posted on the roofs and gateposts of Okinawan homes for protection from evil. End note. The text reads, "Let's choose a decisive, effective, resolute MAN." ¶7. (C) On a darker note, two or three groups with variations on the name "North Korea Study Group" have sponsored a series of posters calling for vigilance in security matters. The posters feature a red border on top saying, "Do not permit North Korean nuclear tests!!" Some of the posters' slogans make sense only in context, such as, "Abolish the risk-Futenma within 3 Years." This contrasts Nakaima's promise to stop Marine Corps Air Station Futenma's functions within a short period of time with Itokazu's demand to close it immediately, something even many reformists consider unrealistic. Two other slogans, "An expert in employment, economics and industry for governor!" and "Is base opposition alone enough?" contrast Nakaima's bureaucratic, government executive and industry experience with Itokazu's life-long anti-military focus. NAHA 00000238 003.2 OF 003 ¶8. (SBU) The most openly negative poster we have seen to date slaps at Itokazu, as well as fallen-away LDP (now Sozo) Diet Member Shimoji. The text reads, "Chameleon contamination: Three flip-flops on bases and casinos." Below the text, a cartoon green whale flashes a toothy grin, an allusion to Shimoji's smiling orange whale cartoon mascot. Fliers published by the Prefectural Peoples' Club, stuffed in mail boxes with the November 8 morning paper, also contrast Nakaima's fortitude with Itokazu's public policy waffling. ¶9. (C) Most posters for Nakaima are bright yellow. Recently Okinawa Defense Facilities Administration Bureau Chief Sato complained to Consul General Maher that he had advised Nakaima to drop the color, as it carried leftist connotations. Nakaima did not take the advice, and we thought perhaps it was to identify with the Ryukyu Kingdom's golden era of independence and the rare yellow dye and resulting fabrics that made the kingdom rich. We have since heard rumors that Nakaima consulted a fortune-teller who divined that yellow would be his lucky color for this campaign. ¶10. (C) During a November 5 gathering of television and newspaper journalists at the Consul General's residence, their consensus was that the governor's race was still entirely too close to call. Perhaps whatever slight edge a lucky color brings is worth having. The two major Okinawa daily newspapers plan to carry out large-scale opinion surveys the weekend of November 11-12, and the journalists themselves seemed keenly interested to learn the results, which will be released just six days before the November 19 election. MAHER