GOVERNOR'S RACE: REFORMISTS UNITE BEHIND ANTI-BASE CANDIDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAHA 000209

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: JA PREL MARR
SUBJECT: GOVERNOR'S RACE: REFORMISTS UNITE BEHIND ANTI-BASE CANDIDATE
ITOKAZU IN 11TH HOUR



1. (SBU) Summary: After months of polarizing debate and a brief
split, Okinawa's six reformist parties agreed to back a single
candidate for the Okinawa prefectural governor's race, upper
house national Diet member Keiko ITOKAZU. If all six parties
remain united, Itokazu's chances for election are good as she is
telegenic and popular in Okinawa. However, her ideological and
extreme anti-base stance, lack of administrative experience in
either the public or private sector, and perceived lack of ties
to Tokyo could weaken her in the eyes of conservative and
moderate voters, making this a close race for governor.
Itokazu's views on the US-Japan security alliance and bases in
Okinawa have been clear over the years - she has said many times
she believes all bases should be closed and the Security Treaty
should be reviewed. Her election would not be conducive to
smooth implementation of base realignment plans in Okinawa. End
Summary.

The Path to the Itokazu Candidacy~


2. (SBU) After four months of polarizing debate and a brief
split, Okinawa's six reformist parties finally agreed on a
single candidate to run in the prefectural governor's race,
national Upper House Diet member Keiko ITOKAZU. The reformist
parties first met in April 2006 and many suggested Itokazu as
the best candidate. Her Okinawan Socialist Masses Party (OSMP)
repeatedly refused to let her run because as OSMP's only
nationally elected member, she was also its primary income
source.


3. (SBU) With Itokazu apparently out of the race, the candidate
field narrowed from seven to two candidates, independent
national Diet member Mikio SHIMOJI and former Okinawa
prefectural government (OPG) Treasurer Tokushin YAMAUCHI.
National upper house Diet member and Chairman of the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) in Okinawa Shokichi KINA told us that the
reformist camp split into two, with Sozo, DPJ, and OSMP
supporting Shimoji and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP),the
Social Democratic Party (SDP),and Jiyu Rengo supporting
Yamauchi. Deliberations continued with deadlines for a
resolution being repeatedly set and broken. Each failure to
agree lead to renewed calls for Itokazu to run.


4. (SBU) In late August, as the coalition was on the brink of
dissolution, OSMP relented on the possibility of Itokazu
running, on the condition all parties unite behind her. OSMP
chairman Masaharu KINA told us in May 2006 that the party
believed the reformist camp lost the 2000 gubernatorial and 2006
Nago mayoral races because it failed to unite behind one
candidate, and that OSMP would be willing to compromise to
assure unity. The dissolution of the six party coalition on
September 1 seemed to shake many within the reformist camp.
Kina said after the dissolution OSMP contacted the different
parties and asked them whom they could all unite behind. All
responded with Itokazu's name. On September 13, OSMP reversed
its stance and agreed to put Itokazu as a candidate, which she
publicly accepted the next day. Shimoji's Sozo party announced
it would support Itokazu's candidacy (and drop Shimoji's) if all
other parties united behind her. The Democratic Party of Japan

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(DPJ) followed suit.


5. (SBU) Soon after, OSMP entered negotiations with the SDP and
on September 16 SDP dropped its support for Yamauchi and
announced it would back Itokazu. The Japanese Communist Party
(JCP),now the only backer of Yamauchi, announced on September
17 that it did not want to run an independent candidate. With
momentum clearly behind Itokazu, Shimoji withdrew his candidacy
on September 16, and Yamauchi renounced his bid on September 18.

~ Weakens the Reformist Camp


6. (SBU) Although all six parties support Itokazu, our contacts
told us that many were disaffected by how she was selected. Kin
Town Mayor Tsuyoshi GIBU told us that the reformists' public
image was damaged after months of deliberation failed to produce
a unified candidate. Further, while party heads switched to
Itokazu at the last minute, many supporters did not. Komeito
Chairman Tomonori ITOSU told us on September 22 that many labor
union members still favor Yamauchi and DPJ's Kina said its
supporters favor Shimoji.


7. (SBU) The discussions also left many hurt feelings. The
DPJ's Kina said that he and Shimoji had received several
critical e-mails from the far left accusing them of deliberately
bogging down the talks. One e-mail even went as far as to
suggest they were CIA spies. Further, Kina said that JCP's
stubbornness in the talks had made him dislike the party even
more, calling JCP "dishonest." When asked how the DPJ planned
to work with the JCP to come up with a unified platform, Kina
responded that the DPJ would work with other reformist parties
who would in turn work with JCP.


8. (SBU) Some reformist worry that Itokazu lacks the credentials
to be governor. Ryukyu University Professor and reformist
leader Masaaki GABE told us in April 2006 that he thought
Itokazu was a poor candidate because she was strong on only one
issue, anti-militarism. He added she does not have the
administrative experience necessary to run the OPG. DPJ's Kina
told us that even OSMP Chairman Masaharu Kina, whose name was
also raised a possible candidate, was unhappy with Itokazu's
selection because he feels she is not qualified to be governor.

LDP: Itokazu Bid Worst Case Scenario

9. (SBU) The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) candidate for
governor, former Okinawa Electric Power Company Chairman
Hirokazu NAKAIMA, and other LDP officials told us on numerous
occasions the worst-case scenario would be for the reformist
parties to unite behind Itokazu. September 20 LDP Okinawa's
Executive Director Hiroshi NAKAMATSU told us that the LDP's best
hope is that the reformists would fail to agree on a platform.
Nakamatsu thought that since the JCP and SDP had submitted to
the more moderate reformists' demands for Itokazu as the
candidate, they would insist on a hard-line platform. However,
the DPJ and Sozo, both of which recognize the US-Japan Security
Treaty and support some presence of US bases in Okinawa, would
refuse to back a platform calling to abrogate US-Japan security
relations, in Nakamatsu's view.

NAHA 00000209 003 OF 004



10. (SBU) Nakamatsu's hopes could be realized - we hear that JCP
and SDP are objecting to Sozo's participation in platform
discussions. DPJ's Kina told us that JCP felt Sozo was too
conservative to participate in discussions and blamed the party
for the reformists' delay in candidate selection. Kina noted
that Shimoji, himself, did not want to participate because of he
felt the six party talks were too time consuming. However, Kina
said he planned to fight to have Sozo included because Shimoji
was the only person who could talk to the US and formulate a
platform with US-Japanese relations in mind. Kina noted that he
was successful in getting Sozo included in the candidate
selection process despite opposition from JCP, hinting he could
get Sozo included in the platform selection process too.

Comment:


11. (SBU) Though the six parties have finally united behind
Itokazu, her chances of winning in November are not certain.
Many in the LDP have told us that an Itokazu bid was their
worst-case scenario given her extreme popularly and high public
reputation. But months of rancorous debate have left hurt
feelings in the reformist camp, and our contacts tell us that
many are not 100 percent behind her. Also, the reformists'
public image was damaged by the failure to select a candidate
for over four months and some question if the coalition can hold
together after she's elected. Had the reformist settled on
Itokazu in April 2006, they might have had more time to recover
from any friction, but with little less than two months before
the election, time is not on their side. In any event the
November 19 election looks to be very close.


12. (SBU) Itokazu has told the press that the "U.S. base
problem" will be the focus of her campaign, and she is already
on record as opposing the realignment plans agreed by the two
governments at the Security Consultation Committee October 2005
and May 2006. Instead, she says the bases should be closed. In
our own public statements, while avoiding taking a position on
who should be elected governor in Okinawa, we intend to point
out that the Okinawan people should be clear on their choices
with respect to the future of our bases here. That is, the
choice is between a very good plan to significantly reduce the
burden in Okinawa (by relocating MCAS Futenma, moving 8,000
Marines plus families to Guam, and consolidating facilities
south of Kadena Air Base),or maintaining the status quo.
Itokazu's idea of simply closing all bases is not one of the
options on the table, as both governments have agreed on the
need to maintain and enhance our alliance deterrence
capabilities.

Biography of Keiko Itokazu


13. (SBU) Keiko Itokazu was born in October 11, 1947 in Yomitan
village and graduated from Yomitan High school. From 1966 to
1992 she worked as a bus tour guide. Initially, the tour guide
script provided tourists with tales of the heroic deeds of
Japanese soldiers at WWII battle sites in Okinawa. However,
after Itokazu learned of her own mother's horrific war
experiences from her aunts, including the loss of a newborn

NAHA 00000209 004 OF 004


daughter on the battlefield and a three year old son to
malnutrition and malaria, Itokazu began a campaign to change the
tour script to include stories of Okinawan civilians ground
between two military forces, of Korean forced laborers, and of
"comfort women." She and colleagues also organized a study
group on Okinawans' experiences and the Japanese military's
behavior during the war.


14. (SBU) In 1992, Itokazu was elected to the Okinawa
Prefectural Assembly(OPA). Following the 1995 rape of a 12-year
old Okinawan girl by three US service members, Itokazu joined
the newly formed Okinawan Women Act against Military Violence
peace activist group. In 1996, as the group's co-chair, she
visited the United States to meet with US Congresswomen and
women's rights and human rights activist groups. The group
characterized sexual violence committed by US service members as
"not merely ~ crimes committed by individual soldiers, but as
crimes produced by the military system."


15. (SBU) In 2000, Itokazu was a signing member of the joint
statement from the East Asia-US Women's Network Against
Militarism which called for, among other things: halting plans
for new or replacement bases in Okinawa and the ultimate removal
of all military from the island; revising the Status of Forces
Agreement; opposing US-Japan Defense Guidelines requiring Japan
to provide facilities and personnel to support US military
activities in East Asia; and eliminating Japan's "sympathy
budget" supporting the US military in Japan.


16. (SBU) Itokazu remained with OPA until 2004 when she won
election to the upper house of the national Diet in a decisive
victory over her conservative challenger, Masatoshi ONAGA.
Itokazu won 58 percent of the votes cast, making her Okinawa's
number four vote-getter since reversion in 1972, according to
press reports and statistics provided by Governor Keiichi
Inamine. In 2005, Itokazu made her second visit to the United
States to lobby for the immediate closure of Marine Corps Air
Station (MCAS) Futenma, saying that would be "the first step of
a visible reduction of the burden shouldered by Okinawa." She
also asked for cancellation of the plan to relocate MCAS Futenma
to Camp Schwab. In an April 2005 press statement Itokazu said,
"we must never allow them to change our beautiful ocean into a
military base."


17. (SBU) Itokazu's husband works as her political secretary.
Her hobbies include Haiku (Japanese poetry.) Her favorite
saying is ichigoichie, a phrase connected with Japanese tea
ceremony and other traditional arts that roughly translates as
"Treasure every meeting for it will never reoccur." Itokazu
speaks very little English but appears to be able to understand
some.
MAHER