MEDIA REACTION: SADDAM VERDICT, IRAQ VIOLENCE, PALESTINIAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUSCAT 001561 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/PPD, NEA/PI, AND INR/R/MR STATE PASS USTR FOR N. MOORJANI, J. BUNTIN LONDON FOR TSOU PARIS FOR ZEYA USCENTCOM FOR PLUSH FOREIGN PRESS CENTER FOR SILAS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KPAO KMDR MU SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: SADDAM VERDICT, IRAQ VIOLENCE, PALESTINIAN GOVERNANCE, AFGHANISTAN OPERATIONS, GULF SECURITY ¶1. SUMMARY: Government-owned "Oman" says Iraqis can curb violence if they cooperate against it; Youth-oriented, privately owned "Al-Shabiba" believes the "civil war" atmosphere in Palestine makes Hamas and Fatah cooperation unlikely and says that U.S. failure to heed Afghanistan's history lessons is prompting defeat; a posting on "Al-Sablah," Oman's largest online discussion forum, said that both Iran and the U.S. have "evil" intentions toward the Arab Gulf and that the true loyalty of the Arab Shia is to Iran. All dailies front-paged news of Saddam Hussein's sentencing on November 6. END SUMMARY. -------------- COVERAGE -------------- ¶2. On Monday, November 6, all dailies front-paged the sentencing of Saddam Hussein with prominent headlines accompanied by large color photos; all content was culled from agencies and to date included no opinion/commentary. ¶3. The relentless "good news" focus of Omani media was demonstrated October 31 with prominent, copiously illustrated reports on a "loyalty march" that was front-paged in all dailies. Oman's ruler Sultan Qaboos was praised as the leader of the "blessed renaissance," and in one headline the Arabic term "al-mafdiy" ("dearly beloved"),was used to describe him. -------------- -------------- BLOCK QUOTES: IRAQI COOPERATION CAN CURB VIOLENCE -------------- -------------- ¶4. On November 1, government-owned, Arabic language "Oman" (circulation 38,000) wrote that "Increasing Violence Affects All Parties": "The last weeks have witnessed a serious increase in violence, which was directed toward Iraqi civilians from all parties and sectors in a desperate bid to push Iraq into the abyss of civil war. However, the harmony shown by the Iraqi parties that participated in the recent Mecca convention, combined with the Iraqi government's pledge to strike all types of aggression, might help curb the violence that is costing innocent Iraqis their lives and their future. Meanwhile, as the U.S. vice president pointed out yesterday, if the violence is expected to last well into the future, then earnest cooperation 
between all Iraqi parties is the only way to overcome it... Restoration of stability to Iraq...would not be impossible if all parties cooperate to work for it. We hope that the contacts between these parties lead to positive results that improve the welfare of Iraq and its people. On the other hand, if violence continues and spreads, it will harm all parties without exception, including the multinational forces in Iraq and some other parties outside Iraq and around it. Therefore, it is very important for all concerned parties to coordinate with each other to prevent any further deterioration of the situation." -------------- PALESTINIAN COMPROMISE UNLIKELY -------------- ¶5. A columnist in youth-oriented, privately owned Arabic language "Al-Shabiba" (circulation 20,000) wrote on October 30 that "Fatah and Hamas Must Step Down in Favor of Technocrats": "Fatah and Hamas should admit that neither one of them alone, or even together, can offer a national reconciliation plan that most Palestinians will accept. This plan would need to be comprehensive. It is difficult to imagine that it could appear in the current strained atmosphere, which has the makings of civil war. Fatah's failure with Oslo is so obvious that it needs no proof. On the other hand, Hamas's plan to try and meld its 'resistance' with the Palestinian Authority's agenda has no chance to succeed. Iran's growing regional influence might be determining Hamas's political positions. The so-called 'Opposition Arc' comprised of Iran, Syria, Hezbullah, and Hamas might be encouraging the latter to be more stalwart in its position, as it envisions that Hezbollah's war against Israel achieved success and radically altered regional geopolitics. According to this reading, Hamas insists on exercising its prerogatives according to its own conditions. However, Hamas has to answer two questions: first, what would happen if Israel and Syria reach a peace agreement that returns the Golan Heights to Syria in an attempt by Israel to break the 'Opposition Arc' in the middle? And second: what if America and Iran reach a conciliatory MUSCAT 00001561 002 OF 002 modus operandi in regards to Iran's nuclear issue and its influence in Iraq?" -------------- AFGHANISTAN'S HISTORY LESSONS -------------- ¶6. On November 2, a columnist in "Al-Shabiba" wrote about "Early Defeat in Afghanistan": "When U.S. President George W. Bush joyfully announced five years ago that his country was bringing Afghanis from the darkness of the Taliban to the light of American democracy and civilization, he was demonstrating his total ignorance of geography and history and of the rules of the social, cultural, and political transformation in the lives of peoples and nations. He did not even bother...to acquaint himself with the nature of the Afghani people and how their struggle against the Soviets led to the defeat of that superpower and even to its disintegration... Bush and his NATO allies were not the only ones who were foolish and arrogant, but the British were too... Afghans defeated them less than 100 years ago. The British dominated the Indian subcontinent but failed to subject the Afghans. Bush's 'spoiled dog,' as his opponents name him in Britain, refused to heed the warnings of British military leaders and didn't bother to look at history books to see what happened to his nation during its previous foray into Afghanistan... Even the commander of Blair's armed forces in the southern region of Helmand has admitted that the mission was a failure, when he stated in a message to the BBC on September 22 that the morale of his soldiers had collapsed. Meanwhile, on October 18 the chief commander of the British Armed Forces in Afghanistan spoke about the dilemma that British and NATO forces find themselves in." -------------- WESTERN AMBITION, SHIA "LOYALTY" -------------- ¶7. This week members of "Al-Sablah," Oman's largest online discussion forum (www.omania.net),dealt with the topic of the U.S. and Iranian military presence in the Gulf. At time of writing, 2,372 people had viewed the topic, and 104 commented on it. The response below was representative of the whole: "We do not favor a Western military presence in the Arab Gulf states... There is no significant difference between Iran and the West in this regard, as both of them intend evil for the Arab Gulf. The West wants these countries under its influence, as does Persian Iran. It wants to occupy the Gulf Arab States and attach them to its sovereignty under many pretexts. We all remember the Iranian marine maneuvers, recently exercised within the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates, a matter that prompted UAE to file a complaint against Iran to the Arab League. All of us are also well aware of the loyalty of the Shia in the Gulf States to Iran. They 'eat from the same dish' of the Arabs while concealing their evil intentions. They enjoy the security, stability and safety provided to them by these countries and they amass abundant wealth, yet their loyalty remains to Iran. If Iran ordered them at any time to carry out any military activities, they would never hesitate to carry those out. Such action is an essential part of their belief. In fact, their sect prompts them to hate the Arabs, disdain them and degrade them. They don't even show any respect to the companions of the Prophet Mohammed (peace be upon him) and the mothers of the believers. Shia loyalty is only to Iran, not to the countries in which they live. I do not defend America and say that it is a friend of the Arabs, but I would like to stress that Iran is the enemy of the Arabs and does not wish any good to them. Therefore, you have to be aware of this and do not be deceived by Iran's challenge to America and the West. It would not be a surprise if Iran occupied the Gulf States with the help of its Shia collaborators, who hate the Arabs to an unbelievable degree. Iran has previously occupied three Emirates' islands and refused to hear any proposals about returning these islands to their mother state. Now you are applauding Iran for challenging the West, so would you applaud it when its tanks storm your capitals and towns tomorrow? Stop this type of thinking, and take this delusion of Iran's challenge to the West from your minds. Iran is worse than the Westerners who are present in your countries these days." GRAPPO