TFLE01: OMANI FM ASSESSES BEIRUT AL MINISTERIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MUSCAT 001205 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/RA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2016 TAGS: PREL MU SUBJECT: TFLE01: OMANI FM ASSESSES BEIRUT AL MINISTERIAL Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo, reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) On August 8, the Ambassador spoke with Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin Alawi regarding the August 7 Arab League meeting in Beirut. As expected, bin Alawi affirmed the Arab League's unanimous support for the Lebanese government, including full support for Prime Minister Siniora's seven-point plan, which enjoys the full support of the Lebanese cabinet. He cautioned that any departure from this plan would inevitably result in the government's dissolution. Bin Alawi commented that both the Emirati and Qatari foreign ministers and AL Secretary General Amr Moussa are en route to New York to advocate for the seven-point plan's inclusion in the proposed UNSC resolution. ¶2. (C) Bin Alawi stressed that any proposed cease-fire must also include the immediate withdraw of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) from Lebanese territory. He noted that there was no support from within the Lebanese government for any resolution that did not call for the IDF's immediate withdraw. Bin Alawi cautioned that any attempt to support the IDF's continued presence in Lebanon would be viewed as "acquiescing to occupation," which would lead to the government's collapse. He further remarked that even permitting the IDF to remain in Lebanon until the arrival of an international stabilization force was a non-starter, since it would likely provoke Hezballah attacks and undermine any negotiated cease-fire. Bin Alawi stated that the Lebanese government was readying 15,000 of its soldiers to move into the south to take over IDF positions in Lebanon. ¶3. (C) Bin Alawi interpreted the term "disarming Hezballah" as having "many meanings." He noted that disarming Hezballah forces from south of the Litani River to the Blue Line would be acceptable, but did not believe that Hezballah was ready to disarm completely. Bin Alawi also noted that the Shebba Farms dispute would have to be a part of any comprehensive settlement plan, and that turning it over to the UN for ultimate disposition among the parties would be the best course of action. ¶4. (C) Comment. The Omani government and the Arab League remain committed to ensuring that the Lebanese government doesn't fall and ending the fighting. To this end, bin Alawi is hopeful that the UNSC will favorably consider including Siniora's seven-point plan in the proposed cease-fire. His comments also reflect the Ministry's view that Hezballah will remain a significant player in the region, regardless of the immediate outcome of the conflict, until more time can be spent on addressing the conflict's root causes. GRAPPO