OMAN FM UPDATE ON IRAN, GULF SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUSCAT 001015 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IR, NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2021 TAGS: PREL ELNT EWWT EPET XF IR MU SUBJECT: OMAN FM UPDATE ON IRAN, GULF SECURITY Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo. Reason: 1.4 (b, d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In a June 20 meeting, FM Yusuf bin Alawi again voiced optimism that Iran would respond positively to the West's latest offer, but noted that several Arab states were angry that details on security assurances to Iran were not discussed with them first. He sees a 1987 Security Council resolution as already giving the UN a role in Gulf security, and described GCC contingency thinking on how to alleviate any blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. The Minister showed no sign of undertaking a diplomatic mission to Iran as requested by the GCC. End summary. -------------- Iran Eager for Deal -------------- ¶2. (C) In a June 20 call by the Ambassador, Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin Alawi provided further insights on Omani and GCC attitudes toward Iran. The Minister was still optimistic that Iran would not "waste the opportunity" of the USG's latest offer, saying that National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani was due to see EU Foreign Policy Representative Javier Solana in the coming days and appeared determined "to strike a deal." Asked about Khamenei's attitude, Bin Alawi quickly replied, "He should listen to Larijani!" The Minister's policy advisor Mohammed al-Hassan then chimed in, "He (Khamenei) does." -------------- Arabs Angry at Lack of Prior USG Consultation -------------- ¶3. (C) Turning to the GCC, Bin Alawi warned the Ambassador that some of the member states and others remain unhappy with the USG for failing to consult on the regional security aspects of the EU offer to Iran. He said Bahrain in particular appeared vexed, though he assured that Oman has complete confidence that Washington and London understand its security requirements. Having recently been in Jordan, the Minister confided that King Abdullah was also upset at the USG's failure to provide prior consultation, being particularly alarmed at the growing Syria-Iran axis. Bin Alawi told the king to have faith that any deal worked out with Iran would be comprehensive and not focus only on the Gulf. He nevertheless sees the need for closer USG consultations. -------------- -- UN Already Empowered to Engage on Gulf Security -------------- -- ¶4. (C) The Minister also cited UNSCR 598 (1987),which brought an end to the Iran-Iraq war, as providing a ready basis for UN involvement in promoting security arrangements in the Gulf. (Note: Point 8 of the Resolution states: "(The Security Council) further requests the Secretary-General to examine, in consultation with Iran and Iraq and with other States of the region, measures to enhance the security and stability of the region." End note.) The Minister said Iran aspires to be a regional power. To achieve that status, it must have dialogue with the U.S. and, presumably, return to the foreign policy practices of the former Shah. The Minister sees such an evolution as a major achievement. "If Iran is brought into the fold (of the regional community), then the Revolution is over! This is inevitable." -------------- Contingencies for Strait of Hormuz -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador noted that a recent meeting of GCC Transportation Ministers reportedly discussed security in the Strait of Hormuz, and asked for details. Bin Alawi replied that no plan was developed, but rather there were simply some expressions of concern as to what might happen were navigation to be disrupted in the Strait. He said the GCC members continue to discuss a number of proposals, including possibly building a rail line between Oman and the northern Gulf, and "linking water networks." (Note: Although this is the first we have heard of it, Bin Alawi said the water linkage project is already "half-way complete." He noted that Kuwait is most vulnerable and therefore most eager to see it finished; we presume the plan is to somehow link GCC desalination production. End note.) Talk of an oil pipeline to Omani ports on the Arabian Sea continues to circulate, as it has "since the 1970's." Bin Alawi said Oman would certainly welcome an oil pipeline, but said such a GCC decision would be purely political because it would never be justifiable on economic grounds. The Minister added, however, "I personally do not see any threat to blocking off the Strait of Hormuz." -------------- No Imminent Travel to Iran -------------- ¶6. (C) Asked if there were any other "developments" in Oman-Iran relations (the GCC has urged Bin Alawi to travel to Tehran as a special envoy),the Minister replied there was "nothing new." He plans to begin his summer holidays at the beginning of July for about two months. He gave no indication of being any closer to satisfying the GCC's request. GRAPPO