AL MOSUL FREE LIST DISAPPOINTED BY ELECTION LOSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000006 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/1/2016 TAGS: PREL PINS PGOV PHUM IZ MARR PINT SUBJECT: AL MOSUL FREE LIST DISAPPOINTED BY ELECTION LOSS REF: MOSUL 204 CLASSIFIED BY: H. Carl Gettinger, Team Leader, Provincial Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State. REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C). REO Poloff met with Shammar Sheikh Nayif Al Faysal of the Al Jerba tribe in Mosul on February 1, to discuss election results, compensatory seat awards, and the upcoming provincial election. Al Faysal is disappointed that his brother Sheikh Khlaid Al Faysal's Al Mosul Free List (#639) coalition did not do better, claiming an unintentional splintering of the Shammar took votes away from MFL. He also implicates leading coalitions, Tawafoq Iraqi Front (#618) and the Kurdistani Gathering (#730),with "manipulating the vote" to either frighten voters away for religious reasons, as in Tawafoq's case, or committing fraud. Al Faysal is upset MFL did not receive a "promised" compensatory seat, which he claims were divided up amongst "Shiite parties in Baghdad." Al Faysal said government corruption and negligence is leaving Western Ninewa, especially Tal Afar, out in the cold. He believes the area will "heat up again" if something is not done to address problems there soon. End Summary. -------------- ELECTION RESULTS AND IRREGULARITIES -------------- ¶2. (C) Al Faysal is disappointed by results from the December national election, but is still somewhat encouraged by his brother's performance given the many disadvantages the Al Mosul Free List (MFL) faced financially (reftel). Al Faysal believes that although MFL finished just shy of qualifying for a seat, MFL lost votes for many reasons. He admitted Sheikh Ghazi Al Yawr's National Iraqi List (#731) took some Shammar votes away, but claims MFL was hardest hit by a splintering of the Shammar vote, especially among members of the Al Jerba tribe who had five candidates on different lists on the Ninewa ballot. For example, he said cousin and ninth place finisher Nawaf Sa'ud of the Lana Al Ghadd Advertising (#788) coalition took almost 10,000 votes from the Shammar. Al Faysal said Sa'ud, who is married to a member of the Saudi royal family, used 3 million dollars of his own money to run in the election, far outspending many other groups. But had the two groups joined together, claims Al Faysal, they would have had over 22,000 votes and could have possibly gained a seat from the province. -------------- FOUL PLAY BY POWERFUL PARTIES -------------- ¶3. (C) Splintering of the community was not the only factor that impacted MFL's ability to win votes, according to Al Faysal. He insists foul play by the much larger Tawafoq Iraqi Front (#618) and Kurdistani Gathering (KG) (#730) "really made the difference" in Ninewa. Al Faysal accuses Tawafoq of "working with the mosques," by telling voters they would "sin" if they voted for anyone else; a claim made by Kurd and Christian parties as well. He said KG, with the power of the Peshmerga, had troops on the ground "voting in multiple locations," and "harassing Arabs and others" to keep them away from the polls. Al Faysal claims the latter's activities contributed to a "very high rate" of blank and invalid or "overvotes." [NOTE: Ninewa had almost 20,000 blank and overvotes, second only to Baghdad. By percentage only two provinces, Salahaddin and Baghdad, had slightly higher rates of blank and overvotes, edging out Ninewa's 2.1 percent, by 2.3 and 2.2 percent, respectively.] ¶4. (C) Al Faysal believes the total number of voters in the province (942,000) was "200,000 more than actually voted." He said that in strong Arab areas in Western Ninewa, such as Zumar, Rabiya, and Sununi, MFL received "virtually no votes," contrary to what he claims are the demographic realities on the ground. Al Faysal believes Kurds "stole votes" in these areas by "making void" votes for non-Kurd coalitions. He said MFL submitted a formal complaint to the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI),but Al Faysal said the response claimed tests were done but no major irregularities had been found; REO did not see a copy of the response letter. Regarding compensatory seats, Al Faysal said he is most disappointed, however, that MFL did not receive a compensatory seat. He claims President Jalal Talabani told him MFL "would receive a seat," but Al Faysal claims that promise was lost when high-ranking Shiite officials in Baghdad decided to "take the seats for themselves." -------------- PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) Al Faysal believes no one will perform better than Tawafoq during the upcoming provincial election. He said KG would do well also, but claims Tawafoq is "gaining ground," and receiving support from rival groups, such as Shiite, Turkmen, and Shabbek political parties. Al Faysal said non-Kurd groups want to "do everything possible" to control the provincial government, since they were "not allowed to take part before." -------------- RECONSTRUCTION -------------- ¶6. (C) Regarding reconstruction efforts in Tal Afar, Al Faysal claims the area is "heating up again," now that projects have "come to a standstill." He faults the Iraqi Transitional Government in Baghdad for not taking more seriously work in the area. Al Faysal even went as far as to implicate his cousin, Ghazi Al Yawr, with working to ensure friends from contracting companies received special contracts for rebuilding in Ninewa. For example, Al Faysal said Al Yawr "helped make sure" one company received a contract to refurbish the Al Kissik military base, "damaged by looters after liberation," but at costs he claims were well above earlier estimates to repair it. GETTINGER