NINEWA VIEWS ON CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FORMATION AND SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000050 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/19/2016 TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ MARR SUBJECT: NINEWA VIEWS ON CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FORMATION AND SECURITY MOSUL 00000050 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Jerome P. Hohman, IPAO, Provincial Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State. REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d) -------------- SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) Reaction by Ninewa's political representatives and government officials towards the formation of a new central government in Baghdad is best described as cautiously optimistic. While there is some finger pointing as to why the process has taken so long (over six months) with no agreement, the general consensus is a desire for economic and political security, and providing of basic services, such as water and electricity. Areas of greatest concern -- such as adequate minority representation and the equitable distribution of ministerial posts -- remain locked in ethnic strife, with the Kurds and Shia being accused by Sunni Arabs and minorities of not doing enough to resolve the problem. Varying ethnic groups and political parties in Ninewa claim the events in Baghdad and the lack of a central government negatively impacts the security situation in the province. End Summary and Comment. -------------- VIEWS ON GOVERNMENT FORMATION IN BAGHDAD -------------- ¶2. (C) Political party and government representatives from Ninewa remain cautiously optimistic that a solution would be found for the current impasse over the central government formation in Baghdad. Depending on party affiliation or ethnicity, views as to how ministerial positions have been settled varied greatly. Major political coalitions, especially the Kurds and Shia, believed that the process so far had been fair and equitable. Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) provincial spokesman Mehdi Herki and Aref Yousef of Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution of Iraq (SCIRI) believed differences between political entities and ethnicities have been overstated. Yousef said although Iraqis were not accustomed to living without a government for so long, there were no indications that problems between the Kurds, Shia, and Sunni were too serious. He said Iraqis have shared a long history of reconciling and working together for the common good. Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) national assemblymember Abdelbari al-Zebari, who has spent the past three weeks participating in negotiations in Baghdad, remained optimistic that problems over the new government formation would be solved on time by May 22. ¶3. (C) National assemblymember from Al Hewar (National Dialogue) coalition Mahmoud al-Azzawi believed the process has not been fair. He said it was dangerous to offer both the presidency and the foreign affairs ministry to the Kurds, for example, because it would give too much power to one group. He claimed if the current situation were not solved soon it would cause problems for the future of the country. Al-Azzawi said there were still some obstacles in the way to forming the new government, namely the lack of compromise over the posts of defense and the interior. Ministerial posts had not been distributed among qualified candidates, he claimed, but rather on a sectarian basis. Adeep al-Chalabi of the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) claimed politicians in Baghdad were only focusing on their own self-interests and not the nation as a whole. -------------- -- ADEQUATE REPRESENTATION OF MINORITIES UNCERTAIN -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Given Ninewa's large minority population, politicians and government officials from all ethnicities in the province had differing opinions about minority representation in the new government. Shabek Democratic Assembly (SDA) national assemblymember Dr. Haneen al-Qado (who is a member of United Iraqi Alliance) agreed that ministerial posts had been fairly addressed. However, more could be done to ensure minority groups outside the major coalitions had more representation, he said. Al-Zebari of PUK said there were plenty of minorities that joined with larger coalitions and now were candidates for ministry positions, such as the Yezidi, Turkoman, and Shabek. Therefore, any grumbling by smaller parties that the process was not fair or democratic was unfounded, he said. Provincial council and Assyrian Democratic Movement (ADM) member Gevara Zia and Saed Rasho of the Yezidi Movement for Progress and Reform (YMPR) adamantly disagreed with al-Zebari's assessment. Zia claimed Christians and other minorities, as well as Sunni Arab MOSUL 00000050 002.2 OF 002 coalitions, were not invited to take part in the formation of the new government. He accused the Kurdish and Shia coalitions of bargaining behind the scenes. Rasho claimed the lack of representation was depriving minorities a voice in the new government. -------------- --- SECURITY IN NINEWA AFFECTED BY EVENTS IN BAGHDAD -------------- --- ¶5. (C) Political and ethnic groups in Ninewa unanimously claimed that the lack of a central government was having a negative impact on the security situation in the province. Yousef of SCIRI believed Mosul was connected to Baghdad intrinsically, since Ninewa was one of Iraq's most populous provinces. Mosul was receiving the brunt of tensions from the impasse over the new government formation, he said, but this was a temporary problem that would be solved soon by the presence of a permanent government. Overwhelmingly, Sunnis, Shia, Kurds, and minority groups called for disbanding militia groups as the first step by any new government in Iraq. Henri Sarkis Alyas of the Assyrian Patriotic Party, Yousef of SCIRI, and Rasho of YMPR said militias should be disbanded and its personnel merged with Iraqi security forces. Al-Chalabi of IIP, al-Qado and SDA, and Zia of ADM said security forces should be comprised of residents from villages and towns they were assigned to protect. Al-Chalabi even called for the incorporation of former Baathist military who did not have "blood on their hands" into the security forces. Yousef said more work would need to be done to enforce the rule of law and to purge the government -- at all levels -- of corruption. Once the government was formed, the security situation would be solved, and the government could begin its job of providing basic services, such as electricity and water, to the people of Iraq, said al-Zebari. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) While no specific group will ever be happy with the outcome in Baghdad, differing political party contacts in Ninewa anticipate that some sort of solution would come about from negotiations in Baghdad. They see problems in Baghdad contributing to violence and unrest in the province, as well as affecting resident's ability to receive basic services. While adequate representation of minorities in the new government remains a concern for many in Ninewa, the message from our contacts is very clear: the hope that a permanent central government can help create security and stability in Iraq. GRANT