NINEWA: PUK NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DELEGATE HAS AN OPTIMISTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000034 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/24/2016 TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ SUBJECT: NINEWA: PUK NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DELEGATE HAS AN OPTIMISTIC TAKE ON GOVERNMENT FORMATION IN BAGHDAD MOSUL 00000034 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Cameron Munter, PRT Leader, Provincial Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Although national assembly delegates met for the first time last week to take an oath of office, Ninewa PUK deputy director and national assembly delegate Abdelbari Al Zebari believes that talks will not resume until the second week of April. He claims the pause is deliberate yet necessary to allow the parties to continue putting pressure on the Shia coalition over its choice of Ibrahim Al Ja'afari for prime minister. Al Zebari believes the outcome will determine how government coalitions are formed. If the Shia continue to insist on Al Ja'afari, claims Al Zebari, then all other sides would work against them. He also believes that civil war is not imminent since "too much is at stake." End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) PRT PolOff met with Ninewa Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) deputy director and national assembly delegate Abdelbari Al Zebari in Mosul on March 22. -------------- CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FORMATION -------------- ¶3. (C) Since the bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra on February 22, the formation of the new government has been delayed. National assembly delegates met on March 16 in Baghdad for the first time in a shortened session to take the oath of office. "The session lasted for only 30 minutes," said Al Zebari, "with the plan to reconvene around the second week of April." He said the parliament was technically still in session but that no one was "officially" meeting. The parties were "waiting on purpose," he said, to see if the Shia coalition would "rethink" the nomination of Ibrahim Al Ja'afari for prime minister, a candidate viewed by many as divisive and ineffective. "Ja'afari is too harsh and he does not have a record of bringing people together," said Al Zebari. Further complicating matters was future interpretation of Article 58 and what the Kurds perceived as Al Ja'afari's unwillingness to settle the "Kirkuk issue" in their favor. Al Zebari does not believe that Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution of Iraq (SCIRI) nominee, Dr. Abdul Al Mahdi, would have been a better choice. "He's weak and indecisive," said Al Zebari, "but that, too, could have worked better for us." He saw Al Mahdi as "malleable," but not a strong enough candidate to bring all parties together. -------------- -------------- COALITION FORMATION DEPENDS ON AL JA'AFARI NOMINATION -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Al Zebari remained optimistic even though he admitted such sentiments were not popular right now. When asked about how coalitions might shape up in the new government, Al Zebari said the Kurdish coalition was in "serious talks" with the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP)-backed Tawafoq Iraqi Front, SCIRI leader Abdul Aziz Al Hakim, and former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's secular National Iraq List. He claimed the Shia coalition's choice of Al Ja'afari was helping to bring together such dissimilar groups in opposition to the selection of the prime minister. However, said Al Zebari, this coalition, too, would collapse if the Shia simply changed their nominee. If that occurred Al Zebari was not sure how a future coalition would be shaped. Al Zebari believed nuclear scientist Hussein Sharastani (also a member of the Shia coalition) was the best choice. He hoped the Shia coalition would reconsider Al Ja'afari and choose Sharastani to head the new government. Then, quite possibly, the Kurds might join with the Shia. -------------- NO CIVIL WAR IMMINENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Al Zebari believed that recent public statements by Al Hakim of SCIRI regarding civil war were nothing more than a bluff. "He's playing his yellow card," said Al Zebari drawing a soccer analogy of when a player commits his first foul during a match. Al Hakim was only trying to pressure disparate groups into forming the new government, he said, not start a civil war. The bottom line, according to Al Zebari, was that civil war was "not on the agenda." Too much was at stake, he said, and MOSUL 00000034 002.2 OF 002 tensions between Sunnis and Shia would have to come to an end sooner rather than later. On the brighter side, however, the prospect of civil war only made the Kurds that much more attractive to the rest of the world, claimed Al Zebari. It was "good for the Kurds public image," he said. And also allowed the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to set an example by moving ahead with its own government formation. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Al Zebari, a very reliable contact, is reassuring, even though his statements appear to contradict local popular opinion and the international media. We can only hope that his colleagues in the national assembly throughout the rest of the country feel as he does. Moreover, if his beliefs on the how the rest of the world might view Iraqi Kurds -- as the most civil of Iraq's ethnic groups -- then he has every reason to remain optimistic about their future. MUNTER