NINEWA: SHABEK SHIA ON ASHURA ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSUL 000032 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/23/2016 TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ MARR SUBJECT: NINEWA: SHABEK SHIA ON ASHURA ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION AND SECURITY REF: MOSUL 21 MOSUL 00000032 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Cameron Munter, PRT Leader, Provincial Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State. REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Minority Shabek Shia in Ninewa reported no major security incidents during the 40-day Anniversary of Ashura. Representatives of the Shabek Democratic Assembly (SDA) and Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution of Iraq (SCIRI) said the only regret they had was when Al Sadr supporters were heckling Coalition Forces during the celebration. To help with security and ward off any potential attacks targeting Shias, SDA rep Yousef Muharam claimed the party had established "intelligence cells" throughout the province. The "cells" were to report on kidnappings, killings, and threats, but not to engage in fighting. Muharam also said SDA had created a questionnaire to measure Ninewa resident's views on Kurdish encroachment. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) PRT PolOff met with Yousef Muharam of the Shabek Democratic Assembly (SDA) in Mosul on March 20 and 23, and with Aref Yousef of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution of Iraq (SCIRI) on March 23. -------------- -------------- ASHURA ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION -- NO REPORTED PROBLEMS -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The 40-day Anniversary of Ashura appeared to have gone off without any major problems in Ninewa province. Muharam requested and got Coalition Force (CF) presence, and reported having good cooperation with provincial Iraqi Police (IP) for the celebration. Muharam said events planned for March 20 through 22 were scaled down for fear of attacks from Sunni Arabs. However, marches would still commence in and around the Bartalla area in eastern Ninewa (reftel). Badges were issued for temporary security guards involved with the party and Al Badr and Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution of Iraq (SCIRI) party members. Muharam said the purpose of the badges was to minimize "chaos and avoid disturbances." He claimed the security personnel were only to carry AK-47 assault rifles and "nothing heavier." He believed the party security, plus Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and CF would be sufficient for protection. Muharam said the celebrations went well and were peaceful. He and Aref Yousef of SCIRI reported only one regret: they wanted to apologize to CF Stryker brigades helping provide security that were heckled by Muqtada Al Sadr supporters chanting, "Down with America." Muharam and Yousef called the protestors "immature" and accused them of bringing down the day's festivities. Dr. Haneen Al Qaddo expressed "frustration" and "sadness" that the incident occurred. -------------- SHABEK INTELLIGENCE CELLS -------------- ¶4. (C) Many contacts have told the PRT in recent weeks they fear an upswing in violent activity in the area. Several of them point to ethnic tensions in Baghdad and southern Iraq as the impetus for possible attacks in the north. Ninewa's Shabek community -- predominantly Shia -- are concerned about what they believe is imminent violence against Shias in the province. SDA representative Muharam told PolOff the party was working on efforts, independently and through local governments, to shore up security to protect the Shia. Muharam said SDA has established "intelligence cells" throughout the province to monitor suspicious activity, as well as to report on killings, kidnappings, and threats. The cells were instructed not to engage in any fighting, claimed Muharam. Rather, they would only function as "eyes and ears" on the ground. He claimed SDA intelligence cells were reporting a high number of threat letters given to Shia, particularly in Mosul, but that no actual copies of the letters had yet been obtained. He hoped the cells would assist Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Coalition Forces (CF) with security. -------------- QUESTIONNAIRE ON KURDISH PRESENCE -------------- MOSUL 00000032 002.2 OF 002 ¶5. (C) In an effort to quantify Kurdish aggression in Ninewa, SDA has finalized the creation of a survey titled, "Questionnaire Concerning the Presence of Kurds in Nineveh Valley," according to Muharam. He said the survey was created under the guidance of four statisticians at Mosul University. The results would be compiled for submission to the provincial government, which was predominantly Kurdish, when issues of Kurd encroachment occurred. SDA representatives were in every part of the province to conduct the survey, and that the questionnaire was not just limited to Shabek or Shia, claimed Muharam. Rather, SDA was hoping to get input from all minorities and Arabs. Checks would also be done to verify data by following up with those interviewed for the survey. Muharam said he realized the venture was risky, but worthwhile. He said the results, which he assumed would be against Kurdish presence by an 80 percent margin, would help non-Kurds push back on the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). He accused KDP of acting as the defacto government in Ninewa and of abusing the rights of minorities. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The creation of Shabek Shia "intelligence cells" is a troubling proposition. Muharam did not tell us how many were currently functioning, but that they were operating throughout the province. While he promised the "cells" were not fighting and just reporting, it seemed SDA might have taken a lead from their Shia colleagues in southern Iraq to create some semblance of a militia. Also, the arming of security personnel not affiliated with government security forces for the Ashura Anniversary celebration was disturbing as well. This, and the idea of the "Kurd encroachment" survey, displays deeper trouble in Shabek Shia-land: their seeming lack of trust in the current Ninewa government to protect minorities, and the decision that they should take up arms to defend themselves. MUNTER