HOW JA'AFARI PLAYS IN THE PROVINCES: NINEWA REACTIONS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSUL 000018 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/19/2016 TAGS: PREL PINS PGOV PHUM IZ PINT SUBJECT: HOW JA'AFARI PLAYS IN THE PROVINCES: NINEWA REACTIONS TO SHIA COALITION NOMINATION OF JA'AFARI AS PRIME MINISTER CLASSIFIED BY: Cameron Munter, PRT Leader, Provincial Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C). PRT Ninewa spoke to several political party leaders from across the province to elicit reactions to the Shia coalition's re-nomination of current Prime Minister Ibrahim Al Ja'afari to a second term. The overwhelming majority of political parties appear to be disappointed by the selection. Although seemingly split along religious and ethnic lines, many accuse the prime minister of serving the interests of Shias to the detriment of the country as a whole. Many more parties accuse him of not working hard enough to improve security and provide basic services. However, the majority of party officials, whether for or against Al Ja'afari, said they supported the selection process as "fair" and "democratic." End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) PRT Poloff assembled political party reactions on February 14, 15, and 16 to the United Iraqi Coalition's (#555) nomination of Prime Minister Ibrahim Al Ja'afari. -------------- REACTIONS TO JA'AFARI'S NOMINATION -------------- ¶3. (C) Here are reactions from Ninewa political parties on the Shia Coalition's re-nomination of current Prime Minister Al Ja'afari [NOTE: Some parties, such as the Kurdistan Democratic Party, refused to comment on the issue]: -- Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU): Public Relations Officer Shawkat Jameel Al-Sharafani said KIU "respects" the democratic process and the Shia coalition's right to re-nominate Al Ja'afari as Prime Minister. However, Al-Sharafani said KIU believes he would "not be a good choice" for the new government. He said Al Ja'afari's prior tenure as prime minister demonstrated his inability to control or improve the security situation, infrastructure, or health and education. Al-Sharafani called Al Ja'afari a "sectarian" who "favors Shias," and whose presence resulted in "widening friction" between Sunnis and Shias. "We believe, unless he changes his attitude drastically, [Al Ja'afari] will not be able to act as an effective prime minister in the new Iraqi government," claimed Al-Sharafani. -- Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): Deputy Director for Ninewa Abdelbari Al Zebari claimed the selection of Al Ja'afari was "not a wise choice" and that a "new face," such as Dr. Adel Abdul Al Mahdi, would have been better. "Although he has a strong personality for leadership, and is honest to some extent, his experience proved that he is not cooperative," exclaimed Al Zebari. Al Zebari said the PUK's biggest gripe with Al Ja'afari was that he did not help solve the issue of displaced persons in Article 58 of the TAL (136 in the new constitution). However, Al Zebari said he hoped Al Ja'afari might have more success with the new government since it has a "broader base." Overall, he said he believed the selection would have a "negative impact" on the new government. -- Independent Syriac Assembly Group: Public Relations Director Saad Tanyous said the selection of Al Ja'afari was a bad decision, but that since he was chosen in a democratic way the process must be respected. Tanyous said he believes Al Ja'afari is "biased towards Shia," and "cannot work as a nationalist" for the betterment of the country. "We believe he will have a negative role in the new government if his policies remain the same," claimed Tanyous. He said he believed "nothing changed" in Chaldo/Assyrian villages regarding public services and unemployment during Al Ja'afari's first term. -- Assyrian Patriotic Party (APP): Ninewa Director Sargon Saleem said APP regards Al Ja'afari as "very sectarian" and "[someone who] favors Shias." Saleem referred to him as "dogmatic" and not a forward thinker. He claimed the selection of Al Ja'afari might lead to the creation of a "dictatorship" and have a negative impact on the new government. He said APP would rather have "[Iyad] Allawi" as prime minister instead. -- Shabek Democratic Assembly: Spokesman Saeed Agha said they support Al Ja'afari's selection and regard him as an "educated and intelligent leader." Agha claimed the selection was democratic and should be respected. He said he believes Al Ja'afari is not a sectarian and will create a balance between sectarian and secular groups. -- Chaldean National Congress (CNC): Alqosh Branch Director Oda Younan said CNC believes Al Ja'afari is an unpopular leader and a sectarian. Younan claimed Al Ja'afari did not do enough to improve basic services and the economy, and that the choice for prime minister should be "[Iyad] Allawi." He said the selection was democratic and should be respected, however, but that the choice of Al Ja'afari was "negative" overall. -- Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution of Iraq (SCIRI): Spokesman Yahya Al-Haydari said local SCIRI members are happy with the nomination of Al Ja'afari. He said the prime minister was successful during his first term. Al-Haydari claimed that working on issues in the new government would be more difficult, but that Al Ja'afari's selection should have a positive influence. -- Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP): Spokesman Younis Hashim said IIP is not happy with the selection of Al Ja'afari. "He proved he was a failed leader during his first term," said Hashim. He called Al Ja'afari a "sectarian" who caused problems between "north and south," "Sunni and Shia." He claimed Al Ja'afari "ruled Sunnis with an iron fist," and considered them "all terrorists." Hashim said IIP is hoping that the nomination would be defeated in the new national assembly by smaller groups of parties, such as the Kurd and Tawafoq (IIP) coalitions. -- Iraqi National Dialogue Council (INDC): Spokesman Musadeq Al Chalabi said INDC is happy with the selection and supports Al Ja'afari for prime minister. He called the nomination "democratic" and that the impact of a second term would be "very positive." Al Chalabi said he hopes Al Ja'afari would create a balance among political groups and ministry selections, however. -- Iraqi Communist Party: Ninewa Regional Committee Secretary Muthana Lateef said the Communist Party does not support the nomination of Al Ja'afari, even though they enjoy a good working relationship with the Shia coalition. Lateef called Al Ja'afari a "failed leader" who could not provide basic services for the country. Referring to him as "impulsive" and "opinionated," Lateef believes Al Ja'afari is the reason why "Multi-National Forces are still in the country." Latefsidte Commuist artybelieve anoher term with Al Ja'afari will spell further divisions in Iraq since he is "not able" to bring all sides together. He also claimed a second Al Ja'afari term might lead to "dictatorship." -- Assyrian Democratic Movement (ADM): Ninewa Board Member Edmon Youkhana said ADM does not approve of the selection of Al Ja'afari because he is an "Islamist" and was a "failure" during his first term. He said ADM is concerned the new government would be "Islamic" and have a negative impact on the Iraqi Christian community. -- Kurdistan Democratic Solution Party (KDSP): Party Councilmember Ibrahim Ismael Ahmed said KDSP respects the democratic pocss of he slection. However, they are concerned by Al Ja'afari's "poor performance" to provide public services and improve security. Ahmed claimed Al Ja'afari "favors Shias" and is "greatly influenced by Iran." He said the party does not anticipate an easier time for Al Ja'afari this go round since the new government is broader based. Ahmed said he hopes the Kurds and Sunni Arab coalitions will play a stronger role to help Al Ja'afari's government function better. Ahmed said, however, such an outcome would be "unlikely." -- Iraqi Turkmen Tribes and Society: Secretary General Abdul-Hameed Al-Bayati said his party strongly supports the selection of Al Ja'afari and believes he will be a positive force in the new government. Al-Bayati claimed Al Ja'afari accomplished many good deeds during his first term. He cautioned non-Shia coalition parties, however, by saying they should follow the "democratic example" set by the Shias when selecting their own leaders. -- Mayor of Tal Afar Najim Al Juburi said he does not believe that Al Ja'afari's nomination by the Shia coalition would ensure his position as prime minister for a second term. -------------- -------------- COMMENT -- DIVISIONS ALONG ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS LINES -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The divisions along religious and ethnic lines to Al Ja'afari's nomination by the Shia coalition are quite clear. The only exception: Comments made by provincial spokesman for the Sunni-Arab dominated Iraqi National Dialogue Council, Musadeq Al Chalabi. He did mention, however, that INDC would "support anyone" as long as they practiced an equitable distribution of the coveted ministry posts, something several political parties complained was done unfairly during the first Al Ja'afari term. Whether Al Ja'afari serves as prime minister again remains to be seen. What seems clear, however, is that, based on the comments we received, he has a great deal of convincing to do among the provincial leaders of Ninewa. MUNTER