NGO DRAFT LEGISLATION: STILL UNSIGNED BY PUTIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000096 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM RS SUBJECT: NGO DRAFT LEGISLATION: STILL UNSIGNED BY PUTIN REF: 05 MOSCOW 15605 Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons: 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Putin has yet to sign or veto the controversial NGO legislation passed in late December by the Duma and Federation Council. Most observers remain convinced that he will sign it, although there is some confusion about the timeframe in which he must make a decision. Assuming it is signed, the bill will likely require "normative regulations" for its implementation, a process on which we expect the Justice Ministry to have the lead. We will continue to express our concerns both about the bill and particularly about its potential implementation. END SUMMARY . BILL REMAINS UNSIGNED -------------- ¶2. (C) Following its December 23 passage on third reading by the State Duma and its December 27 passage by the Federation Council (reftel),the controversial NGO bill was sent to President Putin for signature. By law, the FedCouncil must pass it to him within five days, after which he has fourteen days to either sign it or decline to do so. We have heard differing interpretations from our contacts, however, about whether this refers to calendar or working days and whether the lengthy holiday period of the past week and a half is to be counted. If the deadlines are counted according to calendar days, January 16 would mark the final deadline for a decision on the bill. A contact in the Russian Arbitration Court, however, told us that Putin could postpone a decision because of Russia's new year holidays. Similarly, Moscow Carnegie Center Senior Scholar Liliya Shevtsova told us that, according to one of her contacts, Putin planned to put off a decision; this might be explained on the grounds that the holiday period could not be counted within the fourteen day deadline, Shevtsova speculated. ¶3. (C) Observers had expected Putin to sign the bill quickly, and many of them are surprised that, to date, he has not done so. The general consensus is that he will sign it. That was the view of Shevtsova, for instance. Similarly, Bishop Sergey Ryakhovskiy told us that he expected a signature following the holidays and Putin's return from Kazakhstan, where he is traveling on January 11. Ryakhovskiy said that he had joined several other Chamber members in bluntly criticizing the bill in a recent meeting with Presidential Administration deputy head Vladislav Surkov, but conceded that that was unlikely to have any bearing. In a January 11 meeting with the Ambassador, the UK, German and French ambassadors all agreed that an early signature was likely. The human rights community generally shares that view. Two long-time human rights activists, Father Gleb Yakunin and Lev Ponomarev, told us in separate conversations that they saw little hope that Putin would veto the bill. The lengthy holiday period saw almost no action by the civil society community with regard to the bill, although such action is beginning to start up again. According to Ford Foundation country director Steve Solnick, the Donors Forum is to meet on January 13 about the legislation. ¶4. (SBU) Should Putin veto the bill, he would send it back to the legislature, which would be constitutionally required to reconsider it. Although Putin's veto could be overridden (by a joint two-third vote of the Duma and FedCouncil),no one seriously thinks that could happen. Instead, the expectation is that in such a circumstance, the Duma would amend the bill, possibly following input from the Public Chamber, which sought to play such a role before dropping that request prior to the FedCouncil's December 27 vote. . IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Although not all bills require "normative acts" to lay out implementation details, the NGO legislation seems likely to do so. It is a complex bill that amends existing legislation. Observers noted, for instance, that normative acts would be required because the bill leaves it to the government to determine the manner and deadline by which the federal registration body would hand over information about previously registered NGOs to regional bodies. Moscow Helsinki Group head Lyudmila Alekseyeva told us that preparation of implementing documentation could prove a lengthy process, and if the bill goes into force before all documentation is set, local officials could apply it as they see fit, arbitrarily targeting organizations they oppose. We understand the Justice Ministry would have the lead in preparing implementation details. MOSCOW 00000096 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) In his meeting with his European colleagues, the Ambassador noted that assuming the bill is signed, how it is implemented will take on prime concern. His European colleagues shared that view, with the German ambassador noting that German Chancellor Merkel's planned January 16 visit might constitute an opportunity to express such concerns. . COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Putin has been known to pull off surprises, and no one entirely rules out that he could veto the bill. Were he to do so, it would be because he is not comfortable with its provisions and/or to cast himself to the international community as a progressive force. Particularly because he proposed a number of amendments between the Duma's first and second reading, and because many proponents of the bill argued that the final version, as ultimately passed by the FedCouncil, included those amendments, we share the view that he will likely sign it. This in no way precludes continued expressions of concern about the bill's provisions and about its implementation. A/S Lowenkron's upcoming visit will offer one important opportunity to reiterate that message, which we, working closely with the NGO community and other embassies, will continue conveying at every appropriate opportunity. BURNS