POST-NIYAZOV TURKMENISTAN: VIEWS FROM MOSCOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 013137 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON TX RS SUBJECT: POST-NIYAZOV TURKMENISTAN: VIEWS FROM MOSCOW REF: MOSCOW 13025 Classified By: Pol/Min Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1,4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. While the GOR has officially downplayed its concern about the status of existing energy contracts with Turkmenistan following Niyazov's death, observers here consistently report that gas supplies and Turkmenistan's continuing neutrality are Moscow's foremost concerns as the succession unfolds. With the election now set for February 11, the betting here is that Berdimuhammedov, most likely to win, will be a weak transitional figure. Media coverage has been explicitly critical of Niyazov's rule. End summary. Status Quo, Not a Bad Course -------------- ¶2. (C) Andrey Ryabov of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) succinctly summarized Russia's interest in the new Turkmenistan as "gas and neutrality." As long as Russia continues to receive the agreed volume of Turkmen gas and Turkmenistan does not lean toward any "center" of world power, the GOR will have little interest in the actual name of the successor. Ryabov thought all candidates so far named were weak and would be unable to wield power like Niyazov. He believed that Russia could live with any of the likely successors, including interim President Berdimuhammedov, Head of the Presidential Security Service Akmurad Rejepov, and Minister of Defense Agadeldi Mammetgeldiyev. Russia would not mind "another dictator," as long as he keeps order and does not disrupt the gas flow. Russia will act only if Turkmenistan were to cozy up to the U.S., EU, Iran, or China. Celebration of Democracy? -------------- ¶3. (C) Vremya Novostey columnist Arkadiy Dubnov wryly called the February 11 election a "celebration" of democracy. Turkmenistan will go through the motions of a democratic election but in the end, he predicted, whomever is elected will be a transitional figure. The CIS Institute's Andrey Grozin agreed: Berdimuhammedov is a weak figure who cannot act independently of the conflicting influences unfolding in the country. The situation resembles Tajikistan in 1992 when Rahmonov emerged from "nowhere," in the midst of a civil war and only after many months of uncertainty. Grozin thought it possible that there could be a power-sharing agreement among the contenders, each of whom would have a piece of power and the economic gains that go with it. Drawing on another historical parallel, CIS Institute's Deputy Director Vladimir Zharikhin noted that like the aftermath of Stalin's death, Turkmenistan would experience a weak collective leadership before power consolidated. Ovezgeldi Atayev, he predicted, was the first but will not be the last victim in the on-going power struggle. No Good Prognosis Possible -------------- ¶4. (C) All agreed that no one knows what will happen in Turkmenistan. They lamented a lack of reliable information and noted that even media outlets with stringers in Ashgabat are not able to make a reasoned prognosis. Turkmenistan, Grozin summarized, was a "mythical, Eastern" county which Russia does not understand. Aleksey Malashenko of the Moscow Carnegie Center noted that many ambitious countries --China, the U.S., Iran-- were eagerly waiting for change in Turkmenistan, while "no change" would be the best outcome for Russia. Lesson for Putin -------------- ¶5. (C) The Russian print media have devoted much attention to Niyazov's "zero" legacy, with Russian television highlighting (but not drawing conclusions about) the grandiose projects and idiosyncratic features of his dictatorial rule. Commentators have been uniform in their characterization of the Niyazov regime -- as an odious, but necessary partner in the export of gas. In a "Kommersant" article, Stanislav Belkovskiy, Director of the Institute of National Strategy, went further and compared Putin's Russia to Niyazov's Turkmenistan, which he termed an energy empire based on a dictatorship. He warned of a possible degeneration of Russia to the level of Turkmenistan--politically, economically and culturally. BURNS