MOSCOW REACTION TO TURKMENBASHI'S DEATH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 013025

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DEPT FOR EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV TX RS
SUBJECT: MOSCOW REACTION TO TURKMENBASHI'S DEATH

Classified By: Pol M/C Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1,4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary. The Russian government reacted cautiously
to Turkmenbashi's death and will send the Prime Minister and
Head of the Presidential Administration to his funeral.
Unofficial reactions encompassed the full range of
speculations about succession, and stability in Turkmenistan.
Some analysts saw opportunities for Russia, but worried
about opportunities of the U.S. and others as well. End
summary.

GOR Reacts Cautiously
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2. C) Russian officials reacted cautiously to news about
Niyazov's demise; some spoke about opportunities to better
Russia-Turkmenistan relations. Publicly, Presidential aide
Prikhodko urged a "furthering of bilateral ties", while
Chairman of the Duma's Committee for International Relations
Konstantin Kosachev predicted that Niyazov's successor will
have to make changes in Turkmenistan's foreign and domestic
policies, and would become less isolationist. Kosachev said
he was certain that the Turkmen people would be "wise" enough
to avoid a color revolution during the transition period.


3. (C) MFA Director of the Third CIS Department Maksim
Peshkov told us that stability was Russia's paramount
concern; the GOR was less concerned about the status of gas
supplies than how the GOTX will resolve its "internal
situation." The GOR has extended formal condolences from the
President and the Prime Minister, and PM Fradkov and Head of
the Presidential Administration Sobyanin will represent
Russia at the funeral.

Two Scenarios: Stability or Struggle
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4. (C) The Moscow Carnegie Center's Aleksey Malashenko and
other experts suggested two possible scenarios:

-- Chinese Model: Niyazov will continue to be lauded and
his portrait will remain in government offices while changes
are slowly introduced. Most Turkmen will notice no change,
as gas and electricity will continue to be subsidized.

-- Messy Power Struggle: with no heir apparent, there will
be a fierce power struggle among many, including the
opposition-in-exile. Malashenko said this period could
resemble the post-Khrushchev period. The CIS Institute's
Andrey Grozin did not rule out a military coup. He doubted
that Parliament Speaker Overzgeldi Atayev who, according to
the Constitution is to organize the elections while acting as
interim president, is up to the task.


5. (C) Malashenko thought either scenario equally likely--a
view that "Politika" Foundation Director Vyacheslav Nikonov
seconded. Nikonov suggested that Niyazov's successor might
consider joining the Eurasian Economic Community.

Once Again, It is All About Gas
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6. (C) According to Malashenko, Russia was comfortable with
Niyazov because it could reach an agreement with him despite
his "craftiness." Whatever happens and whoever comes next,
the situation will not improve for Russia, he warned. The
gas deal that Russia has with Turkmenistan involved other
countries such as Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Any new deal will
necessitate reopening negotiations with those countries as
well. This, in turn, opens the possibility for other
countries to insert themselves; among them China, Iran, India
and the U.S.

Tragedy or Happy Event?
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7. (C) Grozin predicted that the Turkmen people would be
divided. For some, Niyazov's death is an occasion to
celebrate and push for greater reform; for others, it is a
tragedy. Oleg Orlov, head, Memorial Human Rights Center,
hoped that the human rights situation in Turkmenistan will
improve. Aleksandr Petrov, Human Rights Watch, was
pessimistic. Niyazov's "zero legacy" meant most people will
feel little nostalgia, he added.

No Time to Lose for Russia
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8. (U) Several analysts picked up on the GOR theme that
Turkmenbashi's death presented an opportunity to strengthen

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relations with the former republic, following Niyazov's
"neutrality." Vice President of the Geopolitical Problems
Academy Leonid Ivashov said that Russia should become
Turkmenistan's strategic partner and help "bolster the
country's defense capability." The Director of Political
Research Institute Sergey Markov recommended that Russia take
the lead in inviting Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran and India
to act as mediators and immediately help their "Turkmen
brothers." He even hinted at a possible Lebanon-like civil
war in Turkmenistan, for which Russia should be ready.

RUSSELL