RUSSIA-GEORGIA: TREADING WATER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 012924 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2017 TAGS: PREL ETRD GG RS SUBJECT: RUSSIA-GEORGIA: TREADING WATER Classified By: PolMilCouns Alice G. Wells. Reason: 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Russian-Georgian relations are treading water until after both countries recover from their break for New Years and Orthodox Christmas, around mid-January. Georgia has taken pains to tone down the rhetoric, and Putin has noticed. Georgia is dismantling some of the restrictions former DefMin Okruashvili placed on the Russian military. Russia will not export electricity to Georgia this winter, and the GOG will not buy Russian gas. Deportations are slowing, with 30 Georgians currently in detention. Georgian Ambassador Chubinishvili believes that in February Russia may ease some of its economic measures, such as the ban on direct flights, but that most will take more time to fade out. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Georgian Ambassador Chubinishvili told us December 13 that he believes Georgian-Russian relations are treading water, neither sinking nor getting closer to dry land. If nothing else, the November 30 meeting between Saakashvili and Putin had stopped the slide in relations. Chubinishvili believed that -- barring another provocation from one side or the other -- little will happen until after New Year and Orthodox Christmas, which virtually shut Russia down until mid-January. ¶3. (C) Chubinishvili noted with satisfaction that Georgian rhetoric has toned down. One exception was a set of remarks Georgian Minister for European Integration Gia Baramidze made in Brussels on November 14 comparing Russian deportations of Georgians with Nazi deportations of Jews. Putin, under the impression that Georgian FM Bezhuashvili had made the statement, attacked the latter roundly at the November 30 CIS Summit in Minsk. Informed by FM Lavrov of his mistake, Putin approached Bezhuashvili and apologized. Georgia sent a letter to the GOR disowning Baramidze's statements. ¶4. (C) Under former DefMin Okruashvili Georgia had imposed a requirement on Russia to translate into Georgian all transit documents for personnel, cargoes, and overflights of Russian military planes enroute to their base at Gyumri, Armenia. Chubinishvili phoned Pres. Saakashvili to get these measures rescinded. The remedy was supposed to have been in effect by December 9. When it did not take effect, the Russian MFA issued a statement complaining about "yet another violation by the Georgian side" of the transit agreement reached in March to facilitate withdrawal of Russian military bases. The issue had not been resolved by December 13, but Chubinishvili was hopeful. ¶5. (C) Chubinishvili noted that Georgia would be purchasing no energy from Russia this winter, eliminating a possible source of crisis. RAO UES had sent a letter warning that shortages in Russia would make it impossible to export energy over the Kavkasioni line until March (by which time the season for hydro power will begin and Georgia will no longer need to import). The GOG will not import gas, though individual large consumers such as Kazakh-owned Tbilgazi (the residential supplier) and Azoti chemicals may import from Russia on their own. ¶6. (C) Chubinishvili said Georgian detainees subject to deportation are down to 30. He predicted some problems before the New Year at the Russian-Azerbaijani border near Derbent. The Georgians whose papers and economic situation are shakiest head for that border by bus and train, and Russian customs officials sometimes cause them problems. In general, the large-scale detentions have ended; during the anti-Georgian campaign, Russian police were forced to arrest Georgians rather than take bribes to look the other way when papers were out of order. Now the old system prevails again, though "the price has gone up," Chubinishvili said. ¶7. (C) Little is happening on Georgia's frozen conflicts. Though South Ossetian "President" Kokoity is in Moscow, Russia's negotiator for that conflict, Yuriy Popov, is on leave. The Russians had protested when Georgian Minister for Conflict Resolution Antadze attended the inauguration of South Ossetian alternative "President" Sanakoyev. Chubinishvili claimed Antadze did so only after the Russians had violated a gentlemen's agreement with Georgia and sent Popov to Kokoity's inauguration. "Kommersant" published an article December 12 suggesting that Russia would follow in Georgia what it (inaccurately) described as the Ahtisaari plan for Kosovo. Kommersant said Kosovo would be part of a confederation and the EU would have powers transcending those of both Kosovo and Serbia, the implication being that Russia would assume that EU role with regard to Georgia. Chubinishvili dismissed the article as pure speculation. ¶8. (C) Chubinishvili hoped that a quiet period can help put relations back on a "civilized" basis starting after Russia MOSCOW 00012924 002 OF 002 gets back to work in mid-January. He hoped that as a start direct flights could begin again between Russia and Georgia. When he had last seen DFM Karasin, Chubinishvili had pressed for this and had been told to "be patient." He noted that even the Moldovans, who have reached agreement for Russia once again to accept their wine, do not expect exports to re-start until February. Chubinishvili had little hope that wine, water and other bans would be lifted. ¶9. (SBU) Despite the bans, it is clear that the Russian people would welcome Georgian products if they entered the market again. We have seen two brands of mineral water on the market here whose labels are direct rip-offs of Borjomi, one even calling itself "Russkiy Borzhom" -- an indicator that brand recognition and brand loyalty to Borjomi are still very high. Chubinishvili noted that GG&MW, which produces the real Borjomi, is suing the imitations for trademark infringement. BURNS