RUSSIA WELCOMES CONSULTATIONS ON U.S. MISSILE

S E C R E T MOSCOW 012473

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2016
TAGS: MARR MCAP PARM PREL RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA WELCOMES CONSULTATIONS ON U.S. MISSILE
DEFENSE DEPLOYMENT PLANS BUT REMAINS SKEPTICAL

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1.4 (
B/D).


1. (S) Oleg Burmistrov, Chief of the Political-Military
Section of the Foreign Ministry's North America Department,
told us 13 November that Moscow appreciated the 3 November
visit of Undersecretary of Defense Stephen Cambone, who
briefed Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sergey
Ivanov and other senior GOR defense officials on possible
U.S. plans to deploy elements of a missile defense system in
East Central Europe. According to Burmistrov, the Foreign
Ministry welcomed such dialogue as important in mitigating
Russia's continued skepticism about the U.S. proposal. He
assured us that the Russian Government would consider
seriously Cambone's technical arguments, most likely in an
interagency context.


2. (S) Burmistrov, however, reiterated Moscow's official
position that deployment of U.S. missile defense elements in
Poland and the Czech Republic would undermine regional
stability, though he acknowledged that the system would not
necessarily be perceived as a direct threat against Russia.
But GOR authorities remained concerned about Russia's ability
to detect missile interceptors as non-offensive weapons and
were still uncertain how the U.S. system would mesh with
NATO's theater missile defense program. Burmistrov said
Moscow had raised the latter issue with NATO and had
suggested the establishment of a NATO-Russia Council experts
working group to discuss all types of threats against the
U.S., Europe, and Russia. With a common view of the threat,
Moscow would be in a better position to accept proposed
countermeasures. Allied reaction to the Russian proposal had
not been completely satisfactory, he added. Asked about
recent public statements from senior GOR officials that
Russia would be forced to react to deployment of a U.S.
system, Burmistrov said he had no idea what measures were
contemplated.


3. (S) Defense Ministry officials told DAO officers that
they were satisfied with the "physics" of the system as not
presenting a threat to Russia but insisted there was still
much political work to be done before such a system could
realistically be deployed.


4. (S) COMMENT: While the MFA is not a player in
decision-making on reactions to U.S. missile defense,
Burmistrov's comments are illustrative of the continued GOR
resistance. Presidential hopeful Sergey Ivanov, not
surprisingly, has continued his public criticism of the
missile defense system, reiterating that Russia would find
"asymmetrical, but no less effective" ways to ensure its
security. Continuing dialogue will be crucial in overcoming
skepticism that the proposed system is not a threat to Russia.
BURNS