MOSCOW'S REACTION TO BISHKEK VIOLENCE: "ANOTHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 012371 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV KG RS SUBJECT: MOSCOW'S REACTION TO BISHKEK VIOLENCE: "ANOTHER FAILED COLOR REVOLUTION"? REF: MOSCOW 12139 Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons: 1.4(B/D) ¶1. (C) The GOR has reacted cautiously to events in Bishkek. After the news of the November 7 violence reached Moscow, DFM Denisov told the Ambassador that the GOR was keeping a close watch on the situation and urging calm. Director of the MFA's First CIS Department (Central Asia) Maksim Peshkov told us that the GOR was cautioning both the opposition and the government to exercise restraint. Expressing disappointment at reports of violence in Bishkek, Peshkov reiterated that both sides needed to seek a compromise. ¶2. (C) Peshkov noted that the GOR was in direct contact with senior Kyrgyz officials, but judged that opposition demands for the resignation of all senior government officials were unrealistic. The GOR welcomed the draft constitution put forward by Bakiyev on November 6, with Peshkov noting that it was "hard to dispute" Bakiyev's contention that it was impossible to ratify a constitution in a matter of a few hours. The draft, Peshkov maintained, should be discussed in Parliament. The November 7 MFA press release also appealed to both parties to put political emotion and ambitions aside and return to reason. ¶3. (C) While coverage of the Bishkek demonstrations has been muted, a few analysts reacted quickly to the deteriorating situation. Gleb Pavlovskiy of the Effective Policy Foundation suggested that "What we are witnessing is the collapse of another color revolution. Color revolutions have proved to be effective machines for the destruction of the societies where they have occurred." He hinted that Russia may have to intervene in Kyrgyzstan to prevent further "catastrophic" developments. Andrey Grozin of the CIS Institute, took a much more cautious approach, telling us that the volatile and unpredictable situation in Bishkek did not invite any serious prognosis. Grozin assessed that the two parties should be capable of reaching an agreement without resorting to violence. ¶4. (C) At the November 8 news of a calmer Bishkek, Peshkov said that the GOR was relieved. He added that a nation's constitution should not be written in the middle of demonstrations and ultimatums but should reflect the interests of the majority of its citizens. ¶5. (C) Comment: The GOR remains skeptical of the Tulip Revolution which, many Russian observers believe, has not benefited Kyrgyzstan. The preference here seems to be for a middle-of-the-road course: a prolongation of the current government and a compromise with opposition demands. BURNS