MOSCOW'S REACTION TO BISHKEK VIOLENCE: "ANOTHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 012371

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KG RS
SUBJECT: MOSCOW'S REACTION TO BISHKEK VIOLENCE: "ANOTHER
FAILED COLOR REVOLUTION"?

REF: MOSCOW 12139

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons: 1.4(B/D)


1. (C) The GOR has reacted cautiously to events in Bishkek.
After the news of the November 7 violence reached Moscow, DFM
Denisov told the Ambassador that the GOR was keeping a close
watch on the situation and urging calm. Director of the
MFA's First CIS Department (Central Asia) Maksim Peshkov told
us that the GOR was cautioning both the opposition and the
government to exercise restraint. Expressing disappointment
at reports of violence in Bishkek, Peshkov reiterated that
both sides needed to seek a compromise.


2. (C) Peshkov noted that the GOR was in direct contact with
senior Kyrgyz officials, but judged that opposition demands
for the resignation of all senior government officials were
unrealistic. The GOR welcomed the draft constitution put
forward by Bakiyev on November 6, with Peshkov noting that it
was "hard to dispute" Bakiyev's contention that it was
impossible to ratify a constitution in a matter of a few
hours. The draft, Peshkov maintained, should be discussed in
Parliament. The November 7 MFA press release also appealed
to both parties to put political emotion and ambitions aside
and return to reason.


3. (C) While coverage of the Bishkek demonstrations has been
muted, a few analysts reacted quickly to the deteriorating
situation. Gleb Pavlovskiy of the Effective Policy
Foundation suggested that "What we are witnessing is the
collapse of another color revolution. Color revolutions have
proved to be effective machines for the destruction of the
societies where they have occurred." He hinted that Russia
may have to intervene in Kyrgyzstan to prevent further
"catastrophic" developments. Andrey Grozin of the CIS
Institute, took a much more cautious approach, telling us
that the volatile and unpredictable situation in Bishkek did
not invite any serious prognosis. Grozin assessed that the
two parties should be capable of reaching an agreement
without resorting to violence.


4. (C) At the November 8 news of a calmer Bishkek, Peshkov
said that the GOR was relieved. He added that a nation's
constitution should not be written in the middle of
demonstrations and ultimatums but should reflect the
interests of the majority of its citizens.


5. (C) Comment: The GOR remains skeptical of the Tulip
Revolution which, many Russian observers believe, has not
benefited Kyrgyzstan. The preference here seems to be for a
middle-of-the-road course: a prolongation of the current
government and a compromise with opposition demands.
BURNS