UNITED RUSSIA IGNORES THE PARTY OF LIFE IN LIPETSK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 011172

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM RS
SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA IGNORES THE PARTY OF LIFE IN LIPETSK

MOSCOW 00011172 001.2 OF 003


--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Lipetsk oblast and city are tightly controlled by
United Russia Governor Oleg Korolyev. Oblast regional
elections will be held on October 8 and it is widely believed
in Lipetsk that YR will win a decisive majority. While the
Communist Party (KPRF) continues to have loyal followers, it
appears to be losing ground. The Russian Party of Pensioners
(RPP) and the Russian Party of Life (RPL) contend that their
parties have attracted some of the KPRF defectors, who live
largely in the oblast's rural regions. RPL Chairman Sergey
Mironov has chosen Lipetsk as the proving ground for his
party, and he has made several campaign trips to the oblast.
His efforts in Lipetsk seem to have the tacit blessing of the
Kremlin, which has allowed the RPL to use a picture of
President Putin in its campaign. While most observers
predict that the RPL will not cross the 7 percent threshold
to representation in the regional council, RPL believes that
it will win 10-12 percent of the vote, which should translate
into 4 - 6 seats on the Council. End summary.

--------------
OCTOBER 8 REGIONAL ELECTIONS
--------------


2. (SBU) On October 8, the electorate will elect a new
regional council. The last regional council election was
held in April 2002. At that time, 36 single-mandate deputies
were elected. The KPRF nominated 13 candidates and the LDPR
- 4 candidates. Only one of those, a candidate from the
KPRF, was elected. Among the remainder of those elected were
11 heads of district and city administrations. (They were
elected before the law prohibiting state officials from
holding office was enacted, and were therefore allowed to
retain their jobs in the administration.) In by-elections
held in April 2004, candidates from both RPL and YR ran, but
were not elected.


3. (SBU) At stake in the October 8 election are 28
single-mandate seats and 28 party-list seats. Deputy
Chairman of the Regional Election Commission (REC) Boris
Lunev explained that single-mandate seats remained because
the oblast had announced its election prior to enactment of
the federal law eliminating them. The number of seats in the
council has been increased from 38 to 56. To get on the
ballot, single-mandate candidates must collect valid
signatures from two percent of the voting population, or
about 640 signatures. If the REC finds all the signatures are
valid then the candidate is included on the ballot. Once
accepted, the REC can remove a candidate only with the
court's concurrence.


4. (SBU) Mark Goldman and Vasiliy Rodionov of the Lipetsk
Association of Human Rights alluded to problems with the REC
during the last election. In a separate meeting, Russian
Party of Pensioners representative Lyudmila Yaskova told us
that the difficulties with the REC lay in getting petition
signatures approved. Union of Right Forces (SPS)
representative Oleg Diachkin was philosophical about not
running in this election, claiming that administrative
resources make it impossible for competitors to compete with
the incumbent parties. He vowed, however, that SPS would be
active in the Duma elections next year.

--------------
ELECTIONS MAKE LITTLE MEDIA DENT
--------------


5. (SBU) There are few signs on the street that Lipetsk is in
the middle of an election campaign, let alone one that is
predicted to be the litmus test of RPL Sergei Mironov's
political viability. Public buildings have simple signs
announcing the October 8 election. Plekhanov Square, a major
intersection, has one large billboard featuring YR and the
slogan "we're together." The billboard is dominated by a
local statue of Peter the Great, which was apparently
commissioned not long ago by YR. On a nearby sidestreet is a
YR billboard depicting an ambulance and bearing the slogan
"for the President's national projects." Such billboards are
few. The majority of advertising is in the form of posters
stuck to lampposts. While LDPR reigns over the space in
front of the Central Department Store, most lampposts bear YR
posters featuring a teacher; and many of these have been
pasted over the RPL campaign literature. A picture of Mironov

MOSCOW 00011172 002.2 OF 003


with Putin, about which there has been much national media
interest, bears the quote "the Party of Life is a good sign
for Russia" but no explicit endorsement.


6. (SBU) The local television station is bereft of political
advertising. Although our interlocutors told us that there
was advertising in the morning and in the evening, one would
need to watch assiduously in order to catch it. Lunev
explained that oblast-sponsored advertising was allocated on
a calculus related to the number of signatures a candidate
got. Otherwise, according to Yaskova, the cost is
prohibitively expensive.

--------------
UNITED RUSSIA
--------------


7. (SBU) YR, especially within the oblast administration,
reacted defensively to Poloff's visit. Anatoliy Larin of the
oblast administration asked how we had found people with whom
to meet. He worried that we were there to make insinuations
about a lack of democracy. Larin claimed that no problems
existed, and that everyone was happy with the status quo.
Every issue, Larin said, was exhaustively debated and
consensus was reached before proceeding. Rodionov separately
agreed that everything was discussed, but insisted that YR
made all the decisions.


8. (SBU) The YR party representatives with whom we met are
young and appear to be being groomed for power. Aleksei
Demikov, head of the local Molodaya Gvardiya (MG) arm of YR
claimed that MG had over 2000 members and told us that it was
active in universities, orphanages, and schools. According
to him, young people are attracted to it because it is an
avenue for self-actualization. As Demikov described MG, it
is less a means to spark the political interest of youth and
more of a club, where youth can gain experiences they
otherwise would not have. Demikov said that banks and
enterprises finance MG activities as a form of advertisement.
He was not willing to name the chief sponsors.


9. (SBU) Valeriy Zhybenko, a local YR representative, who had
spent some time in Chicago, described YR's campaign as highly
personalized. YR campaign workers meet potential voters
individually and endeavor to solve their problems. According
to Zhybenko, campaign financing is no problem. (It is clear
from the location of YR headquarters --steps from the oblast
administration building and undergoing complete renovation--
that there is no lack of money, and a belief that YR will
remain in power after October 8.) Both Demikov and Zhybenko
rated RPL's chance of success as zero and agreed that the
number of KPRF voters was dwindling.

--------------
PARTY OF LIFE
--------------


10. (SBU) On the contrary, the regional representatives of
the RPL, Sergei Grushevskiy and Larissa Ksenofontova,
expressed confidence that their party would win 10 - 12
percent of the vote, or 4 - 6 seats. Money is "no problem"
they said. It flows from the RPL's Moscow headquarters. When
asked why they were confident of a win, Ksenofontova quoted
Mironov in contending that the RPL represented "opposition to
monopolism." According to Ksenofontova, the YR is concerned
with global issues, while the RPL focuses on the human
dimension, although she was unable to identify which issues
were global. Ksenofontova believed that YR is doing a good
job, but "someone else" needed to look after the people and
provide education, health care, interesting jobs, and, most
importantly, help raise the birthrate.


11. (SBU) The RPL party list is headed by Mironov, who has
made three campaign trips in the last few months. When in
Lipetsk recently, Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov told reporters
that Mironov's campaign had to be taken seriously. Although
Mironov told Lipetsk voters that he would not sit on the
council if RPL gains representation, Mikheyev believes that,
regardless, victory is key to Mironov's national political
aspirations. Moscow political technologists believe Lipetsk
is critical to the RPL's political future. A victory of 10 -
12 percent would provide a significant morale boost and send
a clear signal to the regions that Mironov's party is being
accommodated by the Kremlin in advance of the 2007
parliamentary elections.


MOSCOW 00011172 003.2 OF 003


--------------
THE FATE OF THE COMMUNISTS
--------------


12. (SBU) All interlocutors, with the exception of YR,
described a great economic gap between the city and the
oblast, which is being exploited during the campaign.
According to Union of Right Forces representative Oleg
Diachkin, rural voters are regularly told by the oblast
administration that if they do not vote "correctly," they
will not be allotted a new tractor or continued subsidies.
The opposition, on the other hand, seeks to exploit
increasing dissatisfaction within the agricultural sector to
win votes. Although rural voters have historically backed the
Communist Party (KPRF),rival parties agree that the
increasingly extreme stance taken by the KPRF's Lipetsk
branch has alienated traditional supporters. Sergey Mikheyev
of the Center for Political Technologies told us that such
alienation plays into the hands of the Presidential
Administration, one of whose underlying goals is to chip away
at support for the KPRF in this historically "red" region.

--------------
RUSSIA'S BEST-BUILT CITY
--------------


13. (SBU) As befits a city that was recently named the best
equipped and well-built Russian city, Lipetsk is clean and
orderly. It boasts working fountains; well-groomed roads,
children in suits and ties or plaid pinafores, and many
fashionably-dressed adults. New construction is ubiquitous. A
statue of Lenin surveying the valley dominates the city's
central square, around which is ranged the Lipetsk Oblast
Administration building and the Lenin Cathedral, currently
undergoing renovation.


14. (SBU) Lipetsk appears to be thriving. In addition to the
metallurgical plant (LMP),which employs a large percentage
of the working-age population, the Governor last year won
approval for a free economic zone, and a white goods plant
had since been built. According to the SPS's Diachkin,
investors benefit from tax breaks, but each deal is
negotiated individually. Relations between Governor
Korolyev's administration and the center are civil, he said,
and there is little wrangling over the terms offered
prospective investors. The Oblast Administration's Larin
claimed that Lipetsk is financially independent of the center
and averred that, unlike elsewhere in Russia, the oblast
economy is not tied to oil. Yaskova of the RPP agreed, but
thought too much of the oblast's revenues were being siphoned
off by the center. More should be retained to subsidize the
agricultural sector and support medical care, she thought,
especially the escalating costs of medicine.


15. (SBU) Ethnic minorities are not in evidence. Goldman told
Emboff that it is very difficult for minorities to obtain
permission to live in Lipetsk. Sergei Mikheyev of the Center
of Political Technologies described the oblast as one of the
most homogenous in Russia.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


16. (SBU) The oblast administration has firm control over the
economics and politics of Lipetsk. For the moment, many of
its citizens are content with the improving standard of
living, and the parties contesting this election seem to have
adjusted their strategies accordingly. While non-incumbents
face greater challenges in electoral participation, the
oblast has not refused to include any of the major parties on
the ballot. The Lipetsk election can be viewed as a
referendum on the Kremlin's efforts to establish a managed,
two-party system. While the RPL clearly believes that Lipetsk
is their moment, YR may not have gotten the memo.
BURNS