NATO SOFA RATIFICATION: VERDICT STILL OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 010990 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016 TAGS: MARR MOPS PGOV RS SUBJECT: NATO SOFA RATIFICATION: VERDICT STILL OUT REF: A. MOSCOW 10230 ¶B. MOSCOW 9821 Classified By: DCM Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: According to the Foreign Ministry, the Russian Government is completing its review of the NATO Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) -- which was signed last year -- and expects to send it to the Duma "within weeks." The MFA assured us that all GOR entities, including the Ministry of Defense, supported the agreement, albeit with some reservations. Non-official contacts do not share the MFA's rosy assessment and attributed the long review process to concerns about closer military cooperation with Western nations. Duma representatives told us that the legislature would consider the agreement "in due course," suggesting that the measure might not be taken up during the Duma's current session, which ends in December. Election dynamics will complicate prospects for SOFA ratification, with little obvious political gain in advocating closer military relations with NATO and the U.S. END SUMMARY. . -------------- REVIEW OF NATO SOFA ALMOST COMPLETED -------------- ¶2. (C) Grigoriy Sumkin, Counselor in the NATO Section of MFA's European Cooperation Department, told us September 26 that the GOR was nearing completion of its second review of the NATO SOFA signed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in April 2005. He anticipated that the government would submit the agreement to the Duma for ratification "within a few weeks." Sumkin emphasized that there was no political reason for the long official review, explaining that it was not unusual for international agreements to undergo more than one round of scrutiny to ensure that all provisions conformed with Russian law. He said Lavrov had stressed the same points in a September 19 meeting in New York with NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer. In the case of the NATO SIPDIS SOFA, Sumkin continued, several provisions had not initially complied with domestic law. He declined to specify the exact differences but suggested that they pertained to customs duties and liability for property damages. These issues were being resolved. He asserted that the entire government, including MOD, supported the SOFA and looked forward to closer military cooperation with the U.S. and other Western nations. ¶3. (C) Nonetheless, Sumkin said the government might send the agreement to the Duma accompanied by several clarifications; their nature and wording were still being negotiated. Characterizing the SOFA as a framework agreement that could be tailored to individual circumstances, Sumkin argued that some NATO partner nations had issued similar clarifications upon ratification without significant effects upon their military cooperation. Sumkin did not think the GOR's clarifications would impose artificial barriers or otherwise undermine the agreement's implementation. The GOR understood the reciprocal nature of the SOFA and would not deliberately risk disadvantaging its military personnel abroad. . -------------- DEFENSE ANALYSTS LESS OPTIMISTIC -------------- ¶4. (C) Several of our non-official contacts did not share the MFA's optimism concerning ratification. Aleksandr Golts, a respected defense analyst with the Weekly Journal, Aleksandr Belkin of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and independent analyst Pavel Felgengauer all told us separately that a decision to ratify the agreement would be based mainly on political considerations. All echoed the sentiment that neither Duma consideration nor a final decision on ratification was imminent. ¶5. (C) Belkin emphasized that there was not a strong lobby for closer ties to the U.S. or NATO. The MOD mindset was still mired in Soviet-era thinking that did not permit the military or civilian leadership to recognize the merits of active cooperation with more advanced armed forces. Belkin noted that there were only a handful of people in the Duma -- deputies or staffers -- who understood defense issues and would be able to analyze objectively the implications of the NATO SOFA. If the government did send the agreement to the legislature soon, he thought the most likely time to consider it would be in the latter part of the current session or the early part of the spring session (in other words, after this autumn's regional and local elections but before next MOSCOW 00010990 002 OF 002 autumn's parliamentary campaign). He said the Kremlin was sensitive about the timing of any decision regarding ratification. Isabelle Francois, Head of the local NATO Information Office, also told us that Duma consideration of the SOFA was unlikely until the spring legislative session. . -------------- DUMA UNLIKELY TO PUT AGREEMENT ON FAST TRACK -------------- ¶6. (C) Contacts in the Duma confirmed that the legislature had not yet received the agreement nor is it now on the docket for consideration during the current session. Valeriy Ignatyev, a knowledgeable staffer on the Defense Committee, told us this week that the agreement was still with the MFA, which had not finished clearing the SOFA with other ministries. Ignatyev mentioned that the agreement would be considered "in due course" but would likely require several amendments to existing Russian law before it could be implemented. His own sources had informally told him that the SOFA was not expected at the Duma before the end of the year. . -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) We are encouraged that the MFA is moving ahead on interagency consideration of the draft NATO SOFA. That said, ratification will depend on political considerations with an eye toward the forthcoming electoral campaigns. The Russian reaction to the landing of NATO forces in Ukraine and to NATO's decision to offer Intensified Dialogue to Georgia shows that cooperation with NATO remains a political hotbutton here. Nonetheless, Russia's decision to participate in NATO's Active Endeavor Mediterranean interdiction operation shows that there are Russian decision-makers who recognize the value of increased practical cooperation with NATO. De Hoop Scheffer's October 26 visit to Moscow is the next opportunity to raise the SOFA with Russia's leadership. We will continue to press the MFA and others to accelerate consideration of the agreement. BURNS